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Whatever team Queensland put on the field in State of Origin 2, NSW are going to beat them.
The Blues turned the corner with their win at Suncorp Stadium in Origin 1, and the circumstances are better for them this time around.
They’re playing at home at ANZ Stadium and Queensland halfback Daly Cherry-Evans is genuinely struggling to play with that knee injury.
Both teams have lost players for this game – the Morris brothers, Josh and Brett, for the Blues, and Corey Parker and Josh Papalii for the Maroons. But the Blues get Greg Bird back after he missed Game 1 through suspension.
Bird is so effective in Origin that he is an automatic selection – the same as Jarryd Hayne, Paul Gallen and Robbie Farah.
It is clear now that Billy Slater and Greg Inglis will take their places in the Queensland side, but if DCE makes it to the field he may be a risk. He’s really going to have to prove his fitness by tomorrow or Maroons coach Mal Meninga will have to give Ben Hunt a shot.
But even if DCE plays, I’m still going for the Blues.
I tipped the Maroons for Game 1 because for years I’ve stuck by the theory that when a team is as good as they are, you keep tipping them until there is good reason to change your mind. Based on what we saw in Origin 1, NSW have a slight edge now.
If Origin 2 was being played on neutral ground, I’d be tipping the Blues by a very narrow margin. At home on Wednesday night, as difficult a game as it will be, and with the Maroons desperate to win to keep the series alive, the Blues will win by more than a converted try. Somewhere from 7 to 10 points – but only after a momentous battle.
NSW should have won Origin 1 by more than four points, but they haven’t properly learnt how to put Queensland away when they do beat them. That is no surprise, since they have been on the back foot in Origin for much of the last eight years, but they will have gained a lot of confidence and self-belief out of their performance in Brisbane.
The keys are the brilliant form Hayne is in and the subtle change to the way NSW play with the new halves pairing of Josh Reynolds and Trent Hodkinson that was introduced in Origin 1.
Mitchell Pearce, in particular, and whoever was paired with him in the halves – most recently James Maloney – were expected to make the difference for the Blues. Hodkinson and Reynolds are being allowed to settle in and do their jobs as part of a team that has other key players who are also capable of making an impact – and who did so in Origin 1.
Hayne is obviously at the top of that list. He was brilliant in the 12-8 win and it must be remembered that when NSW lost the series-deciding Game 3 by two points in Sydney last year neither Hayne nor Gallen played.
The unavailability of halfback Cooper Cronk due to the broken arm he suffered early in Origin 1 is a critical blow for the Maroons – even if they have someone as good as DCE to replace him. Cronk is a general. I thought DCE had gone past him earlier this season, but as the Origin period rolled in Cronk was on top of his game.
It’s going to be fascinating to see how it all plays out. If you’re a Blues fan and you’ve got a ticket to the game, it’s obviously going to be a memorable night if they win.
Even at a time when football’s World Cup is being played in Brazil, it would be a pretty handy mention on a sports fan’s CV to say he or she was there when NSW finally ended eight years of Origin misery.
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