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Little more than a year out from the World Cup, Ewen McKenzie should now have a very good idea of who will be on the plane.
Of course there are always injuries. David Pocock and Stephen Moore will both have to recover from significant knee operations. The way Tatafu Polota-Nau and Wycliff Palu throw themselves around, they are only a moment away from the casualty list.
Then come the x-factors. Will the likes of Karmichael Hunt and James O’Connor sign up to play Super Rugby? If they do, will their form be irresistible enough to justify Wallaby selection?
There is also the small matter of two Rugby Championships before the World Cup squad is announced. What if we win every game without Will Genia and Quade Cooper?
What if we lose every game?
The French series has, however, produced some gems. While Will Skelton was one of them, there are others who shone just as bright.
It has also shown up a few players hopelessly out of their depth. At the very least it exposed some limitations.
With the above in mind, I think we can almost predict the 30 man squad.
Loose Head Prop: Slipper, Robinson, Sio
James Slipper has been a stand out of the French series. His work rate is superb and his scrummaging has come a long way since being mocked by Steve Thompson.
Ken Sio should be in the side for his raw strength and dynamism.
Robinson has to go to England too. Pek Cowan was found out by the French. The prospect of Benn Robinson and his 66 caps entering the fray against an English pack at Twickenham is far less frightening.
Hooker: Moore, Polota-Nau, Charles
Everything about Stephen Moore says he’ll come back from his ACL injury fitter, harder, stronger. I can’t see him missing the World Cup.
The scary thing about first class hookers in Australia is that they are hard to find.
We have to hope the first two listed make it to the World Cup or we’ll be in trouble. Nathan Charles is the only option as third choice right now at Test level.
Tight Head Prop: Alexander, Kepu
Traditionally a problem for the Wallabies, the tight head position doesn’t look like being a strength anytime soon.
Ben Alexander and Sekope Kepu are both capable but mediocre. Unless Palmer puts up his hand very firmly, I would take the risk of only taking two and using Slipper as cover should either be injured.
Lock: Simmons, Carter, Horwill, Skelton
The best thing to come out of the French series was Sam Carter. Yep, you read that right.
While Skelton was a close second, Carter is exactly the type of lock we’ve been missing. His work rate allows others to make noticeable impacts. The two of them playing together would be ideal, though I think Simmons will continue to be first choice.
Lock stocks are suddenly a strength not a weakness.
Backrow: Fardy, Hooper, Pocock, Higginbotham, Palu
At Test level, Ben McCalman just doesn’t cut the mustard. His work rate is excellent but he doesn’t impose himself at the highest level.
Scott Higginbotham, for all the ill-discipline, is a better option to cover both 6 and 8. It also allows Link to pick a back up 7, a pretty handy one if it turns out to be David Pocock.
Scrum-Half: White, Genia, Phipps
Nic White has been a revelation at 9. His crisp passing and decision making combined with that massive boot makes him my first choice. Genia will have to get back to his best quickly to displace him.
While Nick Phipps is getting game time, I don’t see an international scrum half in him. His passing is bad. His service slow. He will be a target in the closing stages of matches at the base of rucks.
I’d be tempted to take two 9s to the World Cup but I doubt it will happen.
Fly-Half: Cooper, Foley
Link’s back line strategy is clear. He wants his 10s standing flat waiting for a swarm of runners creating opportunities.
Nobody in world rugby is better at implementing that strategy than Quade Cooper. The English are frightened of him. The Welsh are mesmerised by him. The South Africans are run off their feet by him.
Cooper will be the starting 10 and we can only pray he has a perfect day if and when he meets his black clad nemesis. Foley has emerged as an able under study and by including Beale as a replacement 15 the position is well covered.
Centres: Toomua, Leleafano, Kuridrani
Matt Toomua is no Timmy Horan, but then again who is?
The idea of Nic White and Toomua operating on either side of Cooper is very attractive indeed. Both have the ability to make decisions and distribute. Both have very handy kicking games. Both can tackle up a storm.
Leleafano is a like for like back up at 12 to Toomua.
Kuridrani is Link’s choice at 13 and offers real power running and defensive presence in that position. Adam Ashley-Cooper can play there if need be.
Wings: Cummins, Adam Ashley-Cooper, Speight
The Honey Badger isn’t picked because people like him. He gets selected because he has become a real go to man at the gain line and a first class finisher as well.
I like the partnership Cummins has developed with Adam Ashley-Cooper and Folau but I can see Speight having something to say about all that.
Fullback: Folau, Beale
The first name on the team sheet must now be Folau. He is the best 15 I’ve seen since Christian Cullen. He may even be better, only time will tell.
Including Beale as a back up at full back is a no brainer unless a certain Karmichael Hunt or James O’Connor turn in performances that just can’t be ignored.
So that’s my squad. In all honesty, it wasn’t that hard to pick. Over to you.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.
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