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No disrespect to Argentina, but the most compelling subplot of 2014 leading into next year’s World Cup in England is the balance of power between rugby heavyweights New Zealand, South Africa and Australia in the Rugby Championship.
Will the All Blacks stay ahead of their two challengers? Can they add to their weaponry, maintain edges in fitness and stay healthy? Do Richie McCaw and Dan Carter’s young competition (inside and outside their camp) smell weakness?
Can the Springboks continue to improve? Will they accelerate? Will their youth provide enough punch, and can they solve the halfback conundrum?
Is Australia rising? Will they miss David Pocock, Quade Cooper, Will Genia and Stephen Moore more than expected? Can they muscle up enough to avenge the 8-28 and 12-38 drubbings by the Springboks of last year, yet find enough angles of attack to win back the Bledisloe?
Form in last twelve months
The form sheet is fairly clear, with New Zealand on top, followed by South Africa and then Australia.
The All Blacks have won 13 and lost none. Their closest margins of victory were five (against England) and two (in Dublin). Head-to-head against their two main SANZAR rivals, the Kiwis built a 62-point margin in five Tests.
South Africa went 10-2, with the only losses coming against the All Blacks. In truth, while the Ellis Park classic was one of the best displays of rugby this century, the Boks were beaten by the better team.
However, the Boks did not struggle to beat any other team, except for the recent comeback win over Wales. Heyneke Meyer’s team scored a lot of tries, and looked untroubled on the end of year tour.
Using a dynamic big pack with four players getting over the loose ball, straight hard lines by their midfielders, accurate kicking from hand and ruthless finishing, South Africa cemented their number two spot. Australia never looked like prevailing in Brisbane and Cape Town, en route to a 66-20 aggregate scoreline.
Super Rugby form cannot be translated into the prospects for the national side, and this is particularly true of the Boks, with five very independent provincial unions who are currently quite competitive with each other, and a vast overseas contingent. All we can go on is the performance of the actual Springbok team, and they have not lost to anyone except New Zealand in a while.
Australia lost six times in the last twelve months, but the loss to a team ranked lower than them was to England (the scoreline of 20-13 flattering the Poms). In the last six Tests, the Wallabies have won a variety of ways by scoring in bunches, or showing serious defensive chops.
It certainly does not hurt Australia to have several players coming off a brave win over an All Blacks-filled Crusader team, but Link McKenzie will know he has a tougher task than Michael Cheika had.
Missing personnel
As is usual for rugby, some players are missing due to injury, and Australia is missing Henry Speight until his eligibility is resolved.
I suspect Australia will miss its big four injured world-class players (at the critical positions of hooker, openside, scrumhalf and flyhalf) more than New Zealand will miss Victor Vito, Luke Romano, Tony Woodcock and Dan Carter, merely because Steve Hansen has like-for-like replacements groomed.
This is no insult to Carter, who would make many or most World 15 squads. It is a compliment to the forward-thinking policies of New Zealand rugby, whereby Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett are ready (and if they are injured, Colin Slade or Tom Taylor are also blooded).
I actually think Woodcock will be missed more, with possible issues at scrum time for the All Blacks against the Boks’ front row, which is now not suffering from the Coenie Oosthuizen experiment.
The Boks might even go with the trio that I think could dominate scrums in 2014 and 2015 – Tendai Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, and Frans Malherbe. They are big, mobile and nicely matched for size. This requires Meyer to relegate Jannie du Plessis to the bench, but this is actually where he belongs, if the Boks are to actually try to outscore the All Blacks five tries to four.
The Boks may have the least problems with injury, except for the worst problem of all – Fourie du Preez is out and Meyer has not groomed a replacement beyond the over-thinking, less-than-confident Ruan Pienaar.
This could prove to be a blessing in disguise. The Boks might benefit from giving Handre Polland or Patrick Lambie more of a green light to play flatter, take it to the line and give the Stormer centre duo of Jean de Villiers and Damian de Allende more seams to attack.
Flip van der Merwe, Pieter-Steph du Toit, Jaque Fourie, and Arno Botha are still hurt, but of those, only Fourie would clearly get the starting jersey against New Zealand.
South Africa is missing J.P. Pietersen and Schalk Burger for the first part of the Championship due to Japanese contracts, but they will play in the latter rounds when the Boks exorcise demons at the Cake Tin, and then the All Blacks revisit Ellis Park.
As far as selection misses, the All Blacks might have picked the wrong open-sider in Sam Cane, over Matt Todd. The rest of the squads look fairly non-controversial, except there are some in South Africa with a fascination with Heinrich Brussow (he is forever fighting niggles, though).
If I was ranking this category, I’d put New Zealand a the top, once again followed by South Africa and Australia.
The draw
Speaking of the draw, Australia starts out with the toughest matches (Bledisloe), then faces the Boks, who will give them nothing easy, and then finish with the beleaguered Argentines. It is not hard to imagine the Wallabies losing four in a row, but if they can win in Sydney and Perth they would have a very good path to the Championship, with bonus points against the Pumas.
On the other hand, South Africa’s path starts out easy (Argentina visit the High Veld, where they lost 73-13 last year), and builds to a crescendo of challenges, in a replay of last season. Travel is a constant obstacle, but nobody seems to like that topic so I’ll ignore it.
The All Blacks have more of an alternating draw – tough, then relief, then tough and then relief.
The All Blacks once again top the rankings in terms of schedule, while Australian are once again at a disadvantage and South Africa sandwiched in between.
Keys
Australia will need a few players to show they can play better against their two most difficult rivals.
Michael Hooper is bringing top form into the tournament. He outplayed McCaw and Todd in the grand final, however he has yet to outplay Francois Louw in a Test. Nor has he been at his best in the Bledisloe Tests that actually mattered.
Wycliff Palu will need to play as well as he did in Sydney against Kieran Read when he faces him in a black jersey, and Duane Vermeulen in green and gold.
Israel Folau will have to show that he has learnt his position in defence and when the ball is kicked diagonally, as well as in attack (where he is very comfortable now), because the Wallabies may still struggle for front-foot ball against these two ruthless packs.
Bernard Foley showed he is not just a placeholder for Quade Cooper. But can he impose his will on the Boks and All Blacks? It is in the second row that the Wallabies still face a dilemma. Will Skelton creates questions, while he answers others.
And at hooker, Australia is in trouble. Nathan Charles, if he is the answer, will face lineout thieves like Victor Matfield, Eben Etzebeth, Sam Whitelock and Brodie Retaillick. And at scrum time, he will have to deal with Bismarck, who Spiro has called the best forward in world rugby.
New Zealand has good problems. Do they go with Israel Dagg, the most complete fullback, or Ben Smith, the best and luckiest outside back in the world, at number 15? Do they go with an 168-cap duo in midfield, or bring in the unstoppable Malakai Fekitoa? Which loose forward trio works best for specific Tests?
The only hole is almost plugged. Dane Coles is looking comfortable at set piece time, finally.
South Africa has the same debate this year as last year. When do we move on past the security blanket of Morne Steyn? I get the feeling that Meyer is more comfortable with Pollard taking the reins than with Lambie, because Pollard has the bigger boot.
Also, Meyer spotted Pollard at an early age, and believes he has leadership intangibles. Johan Goosen has been axed, which says a lot, because Meyer was his advocate at first.
At scrumhalf, Fourie du Preez has won the argument as to whether he is worth it, and he will be Meyer’s starter at the World Cup. This year, Ruan Pienaar has an excellent chance to prove he can play fluidly from the base of the ruck, and use his skillset to attack the opposition, not just kick accurately.
Francois Hougaard and Cobus Reinach are more similar – a bit ragged in their service, speedy, unpredictable (to foes and teammates) and above all, athletes.
Willie le Roux still seems to be growing, and we still do not know how good he can be. Also, Marcell Coetzee added to his game this year, and will push Willem Alberts hard for time on the field. I would like to see Louw, Coetzee and Vermeulen on the deck (with Bismarck, as well), because this could tip the balance in a tight game with the All Blacks.
The classy Stormers pair of Etzebeth and Jean de Villiers return, and have no doubt rested and are raring to go.
Again, the same rankings apply to this section, with the All Blacks pipping the Springboks and the Wallabies.
The margins may have narrowed, and it seems unlikely that New Zealand will go unbeaten in both South Africa and Australia. South Africa still has to show that it has the recipe to cook the All Blacks, and Australia may win one Bledisloe but counter-intuitively may not have solved their mongrel problem enough to beat the Boks.
The Bledisloe is almost here!
Tickets are on sale to what will be a blockbuster at ANZ Stadium (get yours here). After a cracking Super Rugby final, this promises to be epic.There’s also plenty happening in the lead-up, with the Bledisloe Cup Festival a chance for true rugby supporters to get together.
Want to introduce yourself to a few of the players? The Bledisloe Bay is your best bet on Thursday 14th August from 5pm. Check it out!
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.