Twenty-five rounds down, and just one to go. Ten teams are still in finals contention, and there are a few matches this round which will go a long way towards shaping the finals make-up.
The minor premiership is far from decided, with the Rabbitohs and Roosters needing a win against each other to claim the prize, while hoping that the Sea Eagles lose in Townsville.
The Panthers’ top-four hopes will also rest on whether they can defeat the Warriors on Sunday night and thus deny them from breaking back into the top eight, while the Broncos’ own hopes also rest on whether they can beat the Storm in Melbourne on Friday night.
All that makes for what should be a thriller of a final round of the regular NRL season. Here are the eight matches in detail.
Roosters versus Rabbitohs
This is it – the match between two traditional rivals to decide who finishes second on the ladder and remain in the hunt to secure the minor premiership, which will remain at the mercy of the Manly-Warringah Sea Eagles.
After a slow start to the season, in which they lost four of their first six games, the Roosters have built well into this season, and will enter their final home game of the regular season on the back of a five-match winning streak which has kept alive their chances of winning a second consecutive minor premiership.
Although their premiership defence started with a heavy loss to the Rabbitohs in Round 1, this is their best possible chance to get them right back.
Adam Reynolds will be missing for the Rabbitohs after he was suspended for a lifting tackle against the Bulldogs last week, while their hooker Issac Luke is still in doubt pending the outcome of his judiciary challenge for a dangerous contact charge.
Still, the Bunnies defeated the Bulldogs by just three points to keep their hopes of winning their first minor premiership since 1989 alive. But without at least one of their key playmakers, they will start underdogs against the Chooks this Thursday night.
Prediction: Roosters by 14 points.
Storm versus Broncos
For the Brisbane Broncos, a finals berth is at their mercy – currently eighth on the ladder, Anthony Griffin’s men risk missing September for the second year running if they lose to the Storm and the Warriors either defeat Penrith or lose by more than how much the Broncos lose by on Friday night.
Simply, the Broncos must defeat the Storm to clinch the last place in the finals, but they would have to overcome a very poor record against the side to do so. The six-time premiers have not won in the Victorian capital since 2010, and have only beaten the Storm three times since 2005.
The Storm will offer no mercy in the Broncos’ bid to shut up shop on the eight for 2014. Craig Bellamy’s men must win, and then hope that the Cowboys and Panthers lose their respective ties against the Sea Eagles and Warriors, to leapfrog both teams into the top four.
Which team will be the most desperate to win this Friday night? The Broncos, whose finals hopes are at their mercy, or the Storm, who still remain a chance of sneaking into the top four?
Prediction: Storm by 10 points.
Wests Tigers versus Sharks
The first of two dead rubbers to be played this round will see the Wests Tigers and Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks out to finish their seasons of contrasting woe on the highest note possible.
The drama surrounding coach Mick Potter has conspired against them throughout a six-match losing streak, while the Sharks battled bravely before going down to the Cowboys in golden point on Monday night.
With nothing but pride on the line for both clubs, which team will end 2014 with a victory and set themselves on the path for (what should be, hopefully) a better season in 2015?
Prediction: Wests Tigers by 18 points.
Raiders versus Eels
While the Canberra Raiders cannot make the finals after suffering through a season of unrelenting disappointment, they can all but end the hopes of the Parramatta Eels with victory at home on Saturday night.
It would also see Ricky Stuart inflict the last laugh on the club he infamously walked out on twelve months ago to take up his current three-year deal in the nation’s capital, where he has been tasked with cleaning up the club’s culture.
While it has been a horror season for the Green Machine, they did win their last two games against the Sharks and Wests Tigers, and they would love nothing more than to end the Eels’ finals hopes to finish off the season on a high.
The Eels’ poor percentage means they must rely on the Broncos losing the previous evening, defeat the Raiders and hope that the Warriors don’t beat Penrith on Sunday evening.
That combination will get them into the finals for the first time since 2009 and complete a remarkable turnaround for the club after having finished last in 2012 and 2013.
But can they do it, or will the Raiders put paid to those hopes in Canberra?
Prediction: Raiders by 14 points.
Cowboys versus Sea Eagles
Two things will go on the line when the Cowboys and Sea Eagles meet in Townsville on Saturday night – for the hosts, victory by any margin will all but secure them the double chance, while for the Sea Eagles, the minor premiership is at their mercy.
The Cowboys, who needed golden point to edge out the Cronulla Sharks at home on Monday night, have enjoyed an impressive second half of the season to surge into fifth spot with one round to play.
Their superior percentage to the fourth-placed Panthers means that victory by any margin will see them finish at best fourth, unless the mountain men can rack up an unlikely cricket score on the New Zealand Warriors the following night.
It would then set up a qualifying final against either the Roosters or Rabbitohs, both of whom meet on Thursday night in a virtual minor premiership decider, with the Cowboys being relied on to beat the Sea Eagles for any of them to clinch top spot on the ladder.
For the Sea Eagles, the equation is simple: win and they’re assured of their first minor premiership since 1997, but a loss will see them drop to second due to their points differential of 117 – as opposed to the Roosters’ and Rabbitohs’ of 226 and 228 respectively.
So, will it be the Cowboys who clinch the last available double chance berth, or will Manly finish on top of the ladder for the first time since 1997? A match not to be missed.
Prediction: Cowboys by six points.
Knights versus Dragons
The Wayne Bennett era at the Newcastle Knights will finish just like it started – a home match against the St George Illawarra Dragons.
Both teams are out of finals contention making this match a dead rubber, however the Knights will be out to honour any departing players with a victory in their final match for 2014 before Rick Stone re-inherits the team for the next two years.
As for the Dragons, their 30-22 loss to the Broncos last Friday night will see them miss the finals for the third year running, but they can at least be confident about the direction they will be heading under full-time coach Paul McGregor.
But can the Dragons end the season by continuing their dominance in Steel City? Or will the Knights send Wayne Bennett out a winner?
Prediction: Knights by 12 points.
Titans versus Bulldogs
A disappointing season for the Gold Coast Titans will come to an end when they welcome the Bulldogs to the holiday strip in the penultimate match of the regular season on Sunday afternoon.
It will also be the end of an era with foundation players Luke Bailey and Mark Minichiello set to be farewelled as well. They will leave the club as the last remaining players from its foundation squad from 2007.
On the flipside, it will also be the first match for full-time coach Neil Henry, who has been tied to the club for the next three years despite the club going winless since he took over from John Cartwright after Round 22.
Opposing them on Sunday will be the Bulldogs who could risk missing the finals altogether if they lose and other results fall against them.
It has been an inconsistent season for Des Hasler’s men who led the competition after Round 12 before injuries and State of Origin commitments saw them tumble down the ladder.
But their top four chances aren’t exactly dead yet, as they would need to rely on the Cowboys and Storm both losing their ties earlier in the round, as well as defeat the Titans then hope the Panthers lose to the Warriors later on Sunday night.
However, at this stage, an elimination final appears likely for the Berries, and they should prove too strong for a Titans side who seemingly cannot wait for the season to finish soon enough.
Prediction: Bulldogs by 18 points.
Panthers versus Warriors
And so we come to the final match of the regular season before the finals kick-off, and it will see the Penrith Panthers host the New Zealand Warriors at the foot of the mountains.
For the Panthers, their top four chances will only remain alive if the Cowboys lose to the Sea Eagles the previous night. While that result would mean that the Sea Eagles clinch the minor premiership, the Panthers will be keen for one more shot at them after going down narrowly to them at Brookvale Oval last week.
It means that Ivan Cleary’s men must simply win on Sunday night, a result which would also keep the Storm from pinching their double chance privilege. However, they will face a Warriors side whose finals hopes also lay at their mercy.
The Warriors have improved significantly since Andrew McFadden took over as head coach after Round 5, but missed the chance to replace the Broncos in the eight when they fell short of a half-century against the Gold Coast Titans last week.
In the end, if they do miss the finals, they will be left to rue a costly 46-12 loss to the Sydney Roosters which preceded their big win over the Titans.
Assuming the Broncos and Eels both lose earlier in the round, the Kiwis can clinch that last place in the eight simply by defeating the Panthers by any margin. While that is possible, however, it will be their first trip to Penrith since being hammered 62-6 early last year.
Thus, the Panthers at home should be too strong.
Prediction: Panthers by 16 points.
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