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The 2014 AFL grand final is set to add another chapter to the Hawthorn and Sydney rivalry. The Hawks are aiming for back to back premierships.
Standing in their way is their favourite son – the outcast player and Bondi Billionaire Lance Franklin.
Sydney has benefited from the recruitment of ex-hawthorn players Ben McGlynn and Josh Kennedy. Last off-season they succeed in luring Franklin on the largest AFL contract in history.
Adding to the storyline is a 2012 grand final victory to the Swans over the Hawks. Saturday’s game will add a another chapter to a rivalry which is set to play out over the next decade.
Hawthorn supporters do not need to be told of the influence that the big number 23 can have on the ground. The Hawks faithful have witnessed him in all his brilliance over the past nine seasons.
A simple fact from the two meetings between Buddy and the Hawks this year is that he has threatened to turn Hawthorn into his new Essendon. Over the two contests Franklin has kicked five goals and 12 behinds. Massive amounts of scoring shots for Franklin are not unusual, the worrying sign for the Hawks is that Franklin is beginning to take contested marks – an aspect that always appeared a weakness in his game at hawthorn.
For the Hawthorn back six, for the second week in a row, the spotlight will be beaming down on them. This time the battle isn’t against the creative ground level players but mythical styled monsters. Brian Lake should be better suited with his match up on Kurt Tippet.
Tippet has an excellent pair of hands overhead and is rarely outwrestled, Brian Lake can not allow Tippet to take him one out in the goal square, players like Taylor Duryea need to provide additional aerial support. If the Hawks forwards can support Lake and not allow Sydney to isolate Tippet, this will allow Brian Lake to play off and read the ball in flight and take intercept marks, which was pivotal to his 2013 Norm Smith performance.
Josh Gibson is set to get his old mate Buddy Franklin. Over eight encounters between Franklin and Gibson, Franklin has averaged 16 disposals, six marks and three goals four behinds. It is impossible to think that Franklin can be completely removed from the contest.
He is the central focus of the Sydney forward line and offensively he will get on top of Gibson and the Hawthorn back six at stages throughout the game.
The major focus for Gibson is to stay courageous and continue to compete – the one area that Gibson can dictate to Franklin is to provide offensive drive from the backline.
Franklin can not be allowed the freedom to defensively pressure the Hawthorn back six and win his own contested footy and create score involvement, Gibson must aim for 20 possessions to make Franklin accountable.
Matt Spangher will take Reid and a combination of Shaun Burgoyne, Luke Hodge, Grant Birchall and Ben Stratton will all at times meet Adam Goodes. They key to Adam Goodes is to not allow him space at the stoppages in the forward 50, the Hawthorn players must have the discipline to stay goal side.
Obviously as this article has shown, it is hard to ignore the marquee Sydney forward line. Alastair Clarkson will have made a conscious effort to drill into the Hawthorn players, that the dangers of the Sydney team are far greater than four forwards.
You could write down a list of both teams’ midfields and it would be hard to go through and separate who bats deeper. There are bona fide weapons all across the ground. The fact is both midfields are elite, contested, hard-running units.
The recent history between the two clubs since the 2012 grand final has Hawthorn boasting a four win, one loss record against the Swans. Three of these victories have been on the MCG and the most recent defeat to the Swans was in Round 8, 2014 at ANZ stadium. Hawthorn was without Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Brian Lake for that encounter.
As much has been made of the Sydney forward line, down the other end there are plenty of problems for the Sydney team. As Hawthorn doesn’t have a true match-up for Franklin, Sydney is without anyone who can go with Jarryd Roughead. Roughead has kicked four goals is three of the previous five meetings.
Along with Roughead, fellow All-Australian Luke Breust and Jack Gunston as a trio have averaged 12 scoring shots per match against Sydney since the 2012 grand final.
The competitive advantage that Hawthorn can clearly exploit over Sydney is in the ruck department. I believe Ben McEvoy should make his way into the side at the expense of Jonathon Ceglar. McEvoy has grand final experience with StKilda, and has averaged 11.3 disposals and 26 hitouts per contest against Sydney over the course of his career.
McEvoy provides a strong overhead marking contest, and elite endurance in the Ruck position. By allowing McEvoy to play the majority of game time in the Ruck it allows David Hale to get off the leash and to push forward.
Since the 2012 grand final Hale has averaged just a shade under two goals a contest against the Swans.
The biggest name on the selection table this week is Cyril Rioli. His wizardry is no secret to anyone in the league. Interestingly though, Cyril has only played against the Swans in five of their last ten contests.
In these matches, he hasn’t caused the swans too many headaches. The hamstring may be clear; his fitness and ability to play at grand final intensity for 120 minutes must be in question.
Cyril is capable of producing 15 minutes of match-winning football, which can swing the contest on its head. If he is unfit, his repeat efforts to continuous get to the contest and to provide the two-way running necessary to go with the Sydney mids and backs will only be detrimental the Hawthorn structure.
The Hawks are the most efficient team when going forward in the competition and their overall conversion rate when attacking is the most damaging among all teams.
The ruck work of McEvoy (or Ceglar) and Hale is key, if they can control the stoppages it allows the Hawthorn midfielders to win the clearances and provide best use to their forwards.
I would like to see the Hawthorn forwards work them selves up the ground and provide themselves with space to work back into, therefore isolating themselves into one on one match ups!
Tip: Hawthorn by 14 points
Norm Smith: Luke Breust
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