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Heyneke Meyer doesn’t need a lobotomy to calm him down anymore. The win at Newlands will have done wonders for his mental outlook.
Although I won’t be surprised to see the Springbok coach still anxiously barking orders from his box up high in the stand when we play the All Blacks at Ellis Park, his confidence will have been boosted by the performance against the Wallabies.
Although it was a close encounter until the last 11 minutes, when the Australians led 10-8, two aspects made a huge difference. For a change, the Springboks did not rely on the kick-and-chase game for most of the match and canny substitutions of Bismarck du Plessis, Schalk Burger, Pat Lambie and Cobus Reinach finally overwhelmed the tiring Wallabies.
It appears that Meyer has belatedly realised that aimless up-and-unders do not pay off and that keeping the ball in hand is vital. Starving the New Zealanders of the ball is key.
Give it to them at your peril. They have the skills and variety of moves to make us pay big-time. They are masters of off-load passes and read the game well. Quick thinking is one of their potent weapons.
The South African forwards give as good as they get up front and at the breakdown, but our big, but less mobile forwards, don’t match the pace and handling skills of the All Blacks.
I expect that Meyer will keep to the game plan he used against Australia. The Springboks will keep the ball, try to work their way up-field and hope to get into a position to pounce.
Without enough ball, the All Blacks will be more vulnerable and it will be interesting to see how they react to constant pressure.
The Springboks have proved dangerous near the tryline. We can count on getting enough good lineout ball, courtesy of Victor Matfield, and our rolling maul is hard to stop.
Steve Hansen, however, does not need to be a rocket scientist to work out how to counter any South African game plan. He will have already noted the new Springbok tactics and I am sure the All Blacks will have decided how to counter them.
The All Blacks have shown they are versatile and can play any game they wish. In past matches, they have kicked even more than South Africa, but their punts up field have been far more accurate. I expect more of the same, but they are always hard to stop when they keep the ball in hand and try to gain territory this way, too.
My worries remain over the fitness of some of the Springboks and our reliance on players who can play 20 or so minutes but not the full 80. I note that Burger is not in the starting line-up along with Bakkies Botha, another veteran of the 2007 World Cup squad. They are both better used as impact players.
Meyer has unsurprisingly stayed with Handre Pollard despite his mediocre game against the Wallabies. I would have preferred Lambie, who has more experience and reads a game better. And despite the fact that Francois Hougaard had an excellent game at Newlands, I would have opted for Reinach because of his flair for the unexpected.
We do have a prop problem in depth, but Jannie du Plessis has for long looked exhausted and has battled to keep up for most the game. Marcell van der Merwe, far younger and fitter, would have been my choice.
They have just as good as bench as we have and a battle of the supersubs could be enthralling. We ran away with the spoils at Newlands, but I can’t see the All Blacks wilting in the closing minutes like the Australians did.
Can we beat the All Blacks at Ellis Park? Of course we can, as US President Barack Obama used to say. Stats don’t mean a thing. It comes down to how we play on the day. I might just need a lobotomy myself if it’s a close encounter of another kind.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.