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In season 2010, St Kilda and Collingwood fought out a 68-all draw in the first of two grand finals. At the conclusion of season 2014, St Kilda have the wooden spoon in hand and the Pies just 11 wins.
While the Saints’ fall from grace has been well documented, Australia’s biggest sporting club is facing a similar nosedive with Nathan Buckley at the wheel.
A strong start to the season saw Collingwood sitting equal-second with Sydney and Hawthorn in Round 12, but losses in eight of their next eleven matches saw them miss the finals for the first time since 2005.
With retirements to Luke Ball, Ben Hudson, Nick Maxwell and Quinten Lynch, as well as experienced players Heritier Lumumba and Dayne Beams seeking pastures new, the Pies have suddenly become an unknown quantity.
They join the likes of Chris Dawes, Sharrod Wellingham, Alan Didak, Leon Davis and Dale Thomas on the departures list from the past few seasons, with no obvious replacements from the next generation of Magpies.
Comparisons can already be drawn to the recent exodus of St Kilda mainstays Lenny Hayes, Stephen Milne, Justin Koschitzke, Jason Blake and Clint Jones, among others.
Some of today’s issues can be traced back to Buckley and Collingwood’s attitude at the trade table at the end of 2012. In hindsight, the recruitment of Hudson and Lynch indicate a central problem: they were not as good as they thought they were then, and it’s hurting now.
Hawthorn’s recruitment of Brian Lake for the 2013 season proved a masterstroke in adding the final piece to the premiership puzzle through recruiting an experienced player to perform when it mattered.
While Collingwood and Hawthorn were and are very different teams, the intentions behind recruiting Lynch, Hudson and Lake were the same: to plug small holes in the side and win a flag in the short term.
Buckley tried to have it both ways by keeping a relatively stagnant list and recruiting veteran players to patch over the immediate deficiencies (we can throw Darren Jolly in the mix here as well).
Despite their comparatively young list, Collingwood’s youngsters have not been given the exposure to senior football like those at other clubs. According to Champion Data, Collingwood’s is the fourth youngest list in the AFL by average age (24.3 years), with an average of 78 games played. Only the Brisbane Lions, Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney boast a younger crop.
A more telling statistic arises through comparison with Port Adelaide, who ranks as the fifth youngest list, with an average age of 24.7 years. Port’s list averages 99.8 games experience, over 20 games more than Collingwood’s.
Collingwood’s list appears to have stalled. Younger players such as Jamie Elliott and Taylor Adams are coming along, but the squad collectively is not up to scratch in terms of skill or depth.
If Collingwood aren’t in the dreaded ‘rebuild’ phase yet, then the shape of their list suggests they’re heading towards it at full speed.
Following on from the disastrous 2012 dealings, a succession of mediocre off-seasons may have drained the last drops of September success from their list. Whether optimism is to blame, or arrogance, or plain ignorance, list management under Buckley has knocked the wind out of a club that looked set to entrench itself in the top four.
2013 recruit Tony Armstrong arrived at the Westpac Centre as an expected first-team player who could provide outside run similar to that of Dale Thomas, yet finished the year with five goalless games.
Patrick Karnezis failed to play a senior game in 2014 after a decent few years with Brisbane. The jury remains out on Jesse White, who registered 20 goals from 18 games in his first season away from the Swans.
20-year-old defender Tom Langdon was the shining light of Collinwood’s woeful 2013 draft. Langdon was taken with pick 65 in last year’s draft and went on to earn a rising star nomination this season, as well as being named at back-pocket in the 22 under 22 side.
Neither Matthew Scharenburg (pick 6 2013) or Nathan Freeman (pick 10 2013) managed a senior game this season.
Injuries to key defenders Ben Reid and Nathan Brown leave a question mark over their potential contributions next year.
Based on the state of things at present, the club cannot say with any certainty what supporters should expect of them in 2015. An all-round elite season from Scott Pendlebury was not enough to lift the Pies into the eight. Should Dane Swan and Travis Cloke fail to fire next year another season without September football is expected. Swan was exceptional on occasion this year, but couldn’t find the consistency he is renowned for.
All is not yet lost for the Collingwood faithful, but with the top four becoming increasingly harder to break into, now is not the time to have a quiet October.
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