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If England defeat New Zealand this weekend by only 1 point, Australia will have to defeat Samoa by 18 points to leapfrog England into the final. Given the form that Samoa have shown thus far, is such a thrashing by Australia likely?
Should New Zealand defeat England then an Australian victory over Samoa by any amount will see the Kangaroos play the Kiwis in what was at one stage a very unlikely final.
Has anyone contemplated a thrashing of New Zealand by the English? Should that event occur and Australia do the same to Samoa, then amazingly it would be New Zealand who could miss out on the final. Who would have thought that?
Of course, if Samoa rise to the occasion, if their big men smash their way through what many are suggesting is a vulnerable Australian pack, then New Zealand defeating England could see Samoa leap-frog Australia and England and take on the Kiwis in the final!
What of the sinister view that New Zealand may play the generous host and ‘allow’ the English to defeat them? This would effectively lock out the Australians from an international final for the first time since 1954.
While it would be great for the international game to not have an Australian team contesting a finals match, I do not subscribe to the view that New Zealand will gift England the win. And for two very different reasons.
Firstly, Stephen Kearney does not seem to be the kind of man to coach a team that way. His selection decisions in the Anzac Test reveal a man thinking of the future of his country’s team. Also, if rugby league ever needed a poster boy for fairness then surely Kearney would be on the shortlist.
Secondly, and more importantly, the game doesn’t need it. Test football is clearly moving forward. Regardless of who actually wins this event, the results thus far tell us that the real winner has been international football. A cliché, yes, but in this case, true.
This has been an even tournament. Even Samoa, the lowest ranked team, has not been out of place.
For years the fans have been praying for the day that the ‘Big Three’ could all play on the same page. Well, in this event, their prayers have been answered. Four Nations 2014 has delivered.
Both England and New Zealand have shown that they are no longer little brothers to Australia. It will be heartbreaking for any of the teams competing to not make the final but even among champions, someone has to lose.
No matter who lifts the trophy at the end of this event, it will very much be a case of first among equals.
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