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With the national selection panel rumoured to be on the cusp of announcing a Hilditch-esque super squad of 43 players for the first two Tests against India, Rod Marsh and company face some familiar questions.
Is Shane Watson more likely to be LBW while simultaneously pulling a hamstring, glute and groin batting at number three or six?
When is the best time to drop Nathan Lyon and continue eroding his confidence?
If Mitchell Starc plays two consecutive Tests, will the apocalypse shortly follow?
While these will all no doubt be kicked around in the 15-minute selection meeting on Skype, perhaps the most important consideration for our selectors is this – should new players be selected on performance or potential?
The inclusion of one GBS Maxwell in the squad for the recent series against Pakistan indicated the NSP are still grappling with this quandary.
On one hand, they finally picked the best performed Shield spinner from the past few years in Stephen O’Keefe. This was countered by the man with the silver hammer, who appears both capable and entirely inept from one moment to the next in his appearances to date. More consistent Shield performances by Maxwell were supposed to herald a new benchmark in his maturity, but even the selectors admitted he was picked on potential. A ‘what-if’, x-factor choice who would either burn brightly or fizzle like cheap fireworks.
With another era of change awaiting our Test side, most likely after the 2015 Ashes, the NSP will continue to be presented with the potential versus performance debate. This will include batsmen, bowlers and ‘keepers.
Pat Cummins has plenty of Test potential, and performed amazingly well on debut at age 18 in his sole Test to date. Decisions will need to be made whether to risk his still-developing frame in longer games when Ryan Harris’ knee eventually disintegrates like funeral ashes.
Similar calls need to be made when choosing between proven performers like Jackson Bird and those with a high ceiling like Josh Hazlewood.
Batting wise, should Phil Hughes be partnered with David Warner to open the innings when Chris Rogers eventually retires? Or will the selectors believe there more upside in an untried player like Joe Burns or Jordan Silk?
On the ‘keeping front, is a veteran like Queensland’s Chris Hartley the best option to replace Brad Haddin, or will a young gun like Sam Whiteman jump the queue after his breakout 2013-14 season? Is the best Victorian candidate Matthew Wade or Peter Handscomb, who has started the Shield season in devastating form?
Maintaining a strong Test side is a challenging goal, especially in the absence of ready-made replacements like Michael Hussey and Adam Gilchrist rolling off the 90s assembly line. Picking a player through sheer weight of runs and wickets is obviously the preferred option, but the selectors may not have that luxury.
If those pencilled in for higher honours don’t hold up their end of the bargain, we may see an increase in selection gambles in the next few years. Rod Marsh is an outstanding judge and developer of young talent, and if those calls need to be made, I’d back him to succeed more often than not.
In the immediate future, we are fortunate to have a perfect replacement for Clarke in Callum Ferguson, who has spent the last month reminding us what a class player he is. Here’s hoping a few more pieces of the puzzle will be evident by the end of the summer.
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