AFL recruiting types have been saying that the victorious South Australian Under-18 team is expected to be well represented on draft night, though it looks like they may not have a top 10 selection.
It seems an innocent enough statement about the state of South Australian football in a week that is filled with draft hype and speculation.
But if you read a bit more into this statement and look back at the history of the draft, this statement may give a link to why the recruiters are asking the wrong questions when they look to find the best possible talent for football clubs.
It also shows why the AFL world is doing it all wrong when it comes to the draft.
Right now it is hype versus performance. The TAC Cup is the hype and the South Australian Under-18 team is the performance, and the hype is winning.
To give some perspective to the South Australian Under-18s, this is a group that won a second consecutive championship in 2014. Prior to 2013 the South Australians had not won a national title since 1995. It has been a revolution for South Australian football.
In 2013 the South Australians were undefeated, while in 2014, with a change in structure, they still produced a commanding season being two games clear at top of the championship table.
Twelve months ago, despite an undefeated representative season and impressive campaigns from a number of talented youngsters, South Australia had just three players selected in the top 20 and none in the top five.
Those three selected in the top 20 of the 2013 National Draft were Matthew Scharenberg, James Aish and Luke Dunstan. Scharenberg had an injury riddled 2014 but both Aish and Dunstan were at various points the favourites for the NAB Rising Star and were regarded as two of the best performers in the AFL last season.
Last year most clubs made a mistake in underestimating the attitude combined with the talent of these three young South Australians and on the eve of the draft it looks like the same mistake is about to transpire.
Going into this year’s underage championships as reigning champions it would appear that South Australia had a target upon themselves. Instead of shirking at that target they would play their best football in the crucial moments. The 2014 South Australian Under-18s proved themselves to be clutch – they came through when it mattered most.
Look at their first quarter of the 2014 campaign. Five goals to one against Western Australia and the game was over. In Game 2 they overcame a slow start to hold a potent Victoria Country side to three goals in the final three quarters and record a comeback win.
In Game 3 they travelled to Perth and were again forced to come from behind to record a thrilling seven-point win. A Round 4 lost was avenged when they again came out flying with a five-goal opening quarter in Game 5 to record a second win over Victoria Country. Finally in the key Round 6 game against Victoria Metro they would prove their match-winning prowess to take out a tight final quarter battle.
So with the draft now just one day away the hot names are Victorian-centric, with nine of the top 10 picks expected to be from that state. Incredibly some mock drafts have Sam Durdin being the first South Australian taken at pick 21. Despite being the clearly dominant team in underage football and having players with senior football experience, a host of hyped players are going to beat performing players on draft night.
Sam Durdin and Harrison Wigg promise to be the steals of this year’s draft. One is a versatile key position player who could a contending or rebuilding team. The other is a high production and efficient midfielder that appears suited to the AFL game. Because of the lack of draft hype outside of Victoria these two are going to be draft day steals.
Declan Hamilton, Dean Gore, Josh Glenn and Oleg Markov are other names who will likely fall beyond where they should. Teams may regret not making a higher offer on Billy Stretch and allowing him to fall as a third round father-son selection to the Melbourne Demons.
As was the case 12 months ago, clubs are set to miss out on South Australian talent. To those clubs brave enough to put proven performers ahead of hype, they will be your draft day winners. Maybe not now, but when premierships are decided.
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