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The series against India is done and won, the One Day World Cup is imminent, and with a West Indies tour and then an Ashes defence in England coming up shortly after, the next home summer is surely the last thing on the minds of Australia’s cricketers.
However it should be occupying most of the idle moments afforded to the national selection panel.
The 2015 Ashes series in England shapes as the swan song for a swathe of the current Australian Test team as retirements beckon and bodies finally give up.
By the time the first ball is bowled at the Gabba 11 months from now, at least three and possibly as many as seven of the incumbents from the India series might have moved on.
Chris Rogers has made no secret of his intention to retire at the end of the Ashes series, should he be selected.
Like his predecessor’s quest to win on the subcontinent, a series win in England is an achievement that has so far eluded the current Australian captain. Given that Clarke’s back will have deteriorated further and the more frequent injury troubles of the past two years, the 2015 Ashes series shapes as probable finale for Clarke.
Brad Haddin, whose 38th birthday falls before the next Australian summer, will surely be moved on after the Ashes as well.
Also unclear are the futures of Shane Watson, Mitchell Johnson and Ryan Harris, although I expect all three to continue to play for at least another year or two if they remain fit.
With possible series (the new ICC management has flagged that the future tours program may change) against Bangladesh, New Zealand (home and away) and the West Indies to navigate next summer, the selectors need to be thinking of who is going to come into the side.
Openers
David Warner, barring an injury or a really bad form slump, will be a lock for one of the opener spots for many years to come. Rogers’ departure will leave room for an opener. I could easily imagine the second coming of Ed Cowan in a baggy green and that remains my tip to partner Warner.
Top order
Steve Smith will be there as captain in his own right. Should he make runs during the tours and seize his opportunity, Joe Burns could be a long-term Test player, and not just because I would enjoy half a dozen years of Smithers and Mr Burns jokes batting at three and four for Australia.
Watson will be 34 yet is likely to remain in the side as the selectors will be concerned of losing too much experience all at once. However if Watson remains it should not be in the top order but in the dedicated all-rounder’s spot at no.6. The more Watson bowls the more valuable he is to the side, yet the more likely he becomes to suffer another injury. Therefore he needs to be at no.6 where his periodic unavailability will cause least disruption.
Shaun Marsh may have fallen in to yet another form black hole, or he may finally realise the potential that people have been talking about every day of his decade-long first-class career. If he’s in form, the selectors will probably find room for him, after all he’s named in the Argus report.
The other names in the mix will include the usual suspects like Callum Ferguson, and Usman Khawaja.
Middle order
One batsman, one wicketkeeper and one all rounder belong here, and this block of three players is the most difficult to predict.
Although I’ve never really been an all-rounder advocate, given the fragility of Australia’s fast bowlers in recent years and the coach’s well known preference for a genuine fifth bowling option, an all rounder will be included.
A Shaun and Mitchell Marsh combination at no.5 and no.6 would no doubt be the selectors’ wet dream preference as both have been anointed for many years despite inconsistent performances.
The wicketkeeper succession race is wide open.
Pace attack
Harris’ knees will continue to be a Test-to-Test proposition and another year may yet be squeezed out of him; no doubt he will continue to run in as long as he can. Johnson will likely also play on for another year or two.
Should they remain fit, Jackson Bird, James Pattinson, Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Sean Abbott and Josh Hazlewood are a strong stable of pace bowlers that Australia will be able to rely on once the current spearheads retire. Meanwhile, plenty of guys will be pushing from the fringe.
Spinner
Nathan Lyon will remain in the side, but young wrist spinners Cameron Boyce and Adam Zampa will be waiting in the wings for their first opportunity in Test cricket.
With at least three baggy greens up for grabs, the next Australian summer looms as a pivotal period for the Test team.
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