The hypothetical AFL draft lottery: What could have been?

Roar Rookie

21st January, 2015

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Ian Goodall

Roar Rookie

21st January, 2015

The fruits of mediocrity in the AFL are draft picks. Nick Riewoldt, Luke Hodge, Chris Judd and Brendon Goddard are these fruits. Great players who define their teams, sport and generations.

How do you get them? Suck, be bad, be awful, be so irrelevant to the sport that no one watches your team, and most importantly lose. Lose a lot.

Don’t worry about what sort of cancer that losing can breed. Just hope and pray that Adam Cooney is football’s chemotherapy.

It’s called tanking. Lose so to get better. Everything that goes up, must come down. Those who finish last get the pot of gold. Jack Watts, Tom Scully, sorry Melbourne supporters – it doesn’t always work.

Tanking challenges the very purpose in which participants play or perform sport.

The ambition to succeed and try your best is evaporated in the aim to inherit these fruits of mediocrity.

Looking back on previous drafts in AFL, clubs should be encouraged to tank. High draft picks like Nick Riewoldt, Luke Hodge, and Chris Judd, have shaped and guided teams into powerhouses.

Tanking has its price however – attendances, TV ratings, and general interest in the sport have declined as results of matches become more predictable.

Carlton and Melbourne went through a decade of irrelevance due to tanking. For three straight drafts, from 2005-07, the No.1 draft pick was to Carton like the ring was to Gollum in The Lord of the Rings. Precious.

I’ve often thought how the AFL could abolish tanking.

The NBA have the draft lottery, which acts as a deterrent on tanking. Although some teams in the NBA take their chances on winning the lottery like the Philadelphia 76ers and the New York Knicks are this year, most teams try to get better by signing free agents and trades.

Only three of the last 25 worst teams in the NBA have won the lottery, so why teams tank in the NBA is still beyond me.

To implement such a policy to the AFL, we would need to hypothetically speaking turn back the clock and see what would have happened to the AFL if they introduced a lottery.

So I will use the results of the NBA lottery to reorder the AFL drafts.

Here are some rules and guidelines that I would implemented in doing this exercise.

The first round of the draft is ordered by the lottery and the picking order in the other rounds are determined by finishing position (as it is now).

No priority picks, as it only encourage more tanking.

I will start from 2000 and work my way through until 2010, because the introduction of the Gold Coast and GWS to the AFL tampered the following drafts in 2011 and 2012, and then restart in 2013.

The NBA lottery incorporates the eligibility of 14 teams. This historically is perfect for this exercise because the AFL has 16 teams. So if you make the grand final, you are not eligible for the lottery.

Before I conduct this exercise, I know that the draft order of players would be different to the list below based on teams needs and I will make obvious exceptions as I go.

But other than that, this is just a gimmick.

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Nick Riewoldt	St. Kilda	Sydney
2	Justin Koschitzke	St. Kilda	West Coast
3	Alan Didak	Collingwood	St. Kilda
4	Luke Livingston	Carlton	Collingwood
5	Andrew McDougall	West Coast	Port Adelaide
6	Dylan Smith	North Melbourne	Fremantle
7	Laurance Angwin	Adelaide	Adelaide
8	Daniel Motlop	North Melbourne	Richmond
9	Kayne Pettifer	Richmond	Western Bulldogs
10	Jordon McMahon	Western Bulldogs	Carlton
11	Trent Sporn	Carlton	Port Adelaide
12	Shaun Burgoyne	Port Adelaide	Brisbane
13	Ashley McGrath	Brisbane	North Melbourne
14	Daniel Harris	North Melbourne	Carlton

Okay, so just go ahead and give that 2006 premiership to Sydney? Fine I will.

Nick Riewoldt at the Swans, that’s some team, and he’s probably still there right? 15 years at the Swans, three, maybe four premierships.

Shaun Burgoyne is still at the Power – Port had his brother, Peter, they would have drafted him at 11 if need be. So no Brisbane fans, you can’t dream of four straight premierships.

The Laurence Angwin nightmare still continues for Adelaide.

Alan Didak at St Kilda. The Stephen Milne-Didak small forward combo is probably the best we’ve ever seen but without Riewoldt or Justin Koschitzke it doesn’t mean much, so say goodbye to 2010 and 2011 grand final appearances, but you would have forgotten about them by now? Right?

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Luke Hodge	Hawthorn	West Coast
2	Luke Ball	St Kilda	Collingwood
3	Chris Judd	West Coast	Carlton
4	Graham Polak	Fremantl	Fremantle
5	Xavier Clarke	St Kilda	St Kilda
6	Ashley Sampi	West Coast	North Melbourne
7	David Hale	North Melbourne	Melbourne
8	Jimmy Bartel	Geelong	Western Bulldogs
9	Luke Molan	Melbourne	Adelaide
10	Sam Power	Western Bulldogs	St Kilda
11	Richard Cole	Collingwood	Carlton
12	Brent Reilly	Adelaide	Port Adelaide
13	Nick Dal Santo	St Kilda	Hawthorn
14	Ashley Watson	North Melbourne	Richmond

Best draft ever.

West Coast fans, it’s not all bad. Luke Hodge is an all-time great player, arguably the best captain this century. But Chris Judd was so precocious, instantly good, and Hodge took a while to get his career going. So unfortunately for West Coast fans, Sydney go back-to-back in 2005-06 and you can’t argue when you see the 2002 draft.

Geelong get Chris Judd but no Jimmy Bartel, but you could live with that because there is no way Hawthorn could pull off the 2008 premiership coup with Chris Judd in the Geelong side. That’s four flags, not three, perhaps even five in a row?

You’re still one of the greatest teams ever assembled. And just quietly, the 2004 preliminary final vs Brisbane and 2005 elimination final against Sydney all of sudden get interesting – like, result-changingly interesting maybe?

Judd never leaves for Carlton.

Sit down Western Bulldogs fans. It gets better.

Now to Hawthorn fans, Fremantle had picks one and four in the original draft. With my no priority pick rule that means they only get pick three after the lottery. So I don’t know if Fremantle make the Trent Croad trade with only one draft pick. But you get Nick Dal Santo. So maybe 2008 premiership is still yours?

David Hale to Melbourne. No difference.

Luke Ball at Collingwood. It was meant to be.

2002

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Brendon Goddard	St. Kilda	Sydney
2	Daniel Wells	North Melbourne	North Melbourne
3	Jared Brennan	Brisbane	St. Kilda
4	Tim Walsh	Western Bulldogs	Brisbane
5	Jarrad McVeigh	Sydney	Western Bulldogs
6	Steven Salopek	Port Adelaide	Port Adelaide
7	Andrew Mackie	Geelong	Geelong
8	Luke Brennon	Hawthorn	Hawthorn
9	Hamish McIntosh	North Melbourne	North Melbourne
10	Jason Laycock	Essendon	Essenson
11	Jason Winderlich	Essendon	Essendon
12	Jay Schultz	Richmond	Richmond
13	Byron Schammer	Fremantle	Fremantle
14	Daniel Bell	Melbourne	Melbourne

Sydney lose McVeigh to the Bulldogs, and get Goddard instead. I know the Swans love McVeigh, but come on, Goddard.
McVeigh to the Bulldogs with Bartel. I’ll show you later what that means.
2003

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Adam Cooney	Western Bulldogs	Western Bulldogs
2	Andrew Walker	Carlton	St. Kilda
3	Colin Sylvia	Melbourne	Carlton
4	Farren Ray	Western Bulldogs	Melbourne
5	Brock McLean	Melbourne	Richmond
6	Kepler Bradley	Essendon	Western Bulldogs
7	Kane Tenace	Geelong	Geelong
8	Raphael Clarke	St. Kilda	St. Kilda
9	Davis Trotter	North Melbourne	North Melbourne
10	Ryley Dunn	Fremantle	Fremantle
11	Beau Waters	West Coast	West Coast
12	Ryan Murphy	Fremantle	Fremantle
13	Brent Stanton	Essendon	Essendon
14	Fergus Watts	Adelaide	Adelaide

Bulldogs keep Cooney and stay seated, it gets real good next year. This lottery is really boring. Not much history changes here.

2004

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Brett Deledio	Richmond	Richmond
2	Jarryd Roughead	Hawthorn	Adelaide
3	Ryan Griffen	Western Bulldogs	Hawthorn
4	Richard Tambling	Richmond	Hawthorn
5	Lance Franklin	Hawthorn	Western Bulldogs
6	Tom Williams	Western Bulldogs	Carlton
7	Jordan Lewis	Hawthorn	North Melbourne
8	John Meesen	Adelaide	Fremantle
9	Jordon Russell	Carlton	Essendon
10	Chris Egan	Collingwood	West Coast
11	Adam Thomson	Port Adelaide	Sydney
12	Danny Meyer	Richmond	Melbourne
13	Matthew Bate	Melbourne	Geelong
14	Angus Monfries	Essendon	St. Kilda

Boom! Franklin at Footscray, the premiership window finally reopens since for the Bulldogs, first time since 1997. Franklin goes to GWS in 2013 as scheduled.

Roughead in Adelaide means possibly 2006 grand final appearance for the Crows. Hawthorn ask the Richmond questions about Richard Tambling.

Richmond still regret Deledio like a Vegas marriage and Ryan Griffen to the Hawks is interesting, while Dean Laidley realises that Jordan Lewis is his lovechild.

2005

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Marc Murphy	Carlton	Brisbane
2	Dale Thomas	Collingwood	Carlton
3	Xavier Ellis	Hawthorn	Essendon
4	Josh Kennedy	Carlton	Collingwood
5	Scott Pendlebury	Collingwood	Hawthorn
6	Beau Dowler	Hawthorn	Richmond
7	Patrick Ryder	Essendon	Fremantle
8	Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls	Richmond	Western Bulldogs
9	Mitchell Clark	Brisbane Lions	Melbourne
10	Marcus Drum	Fremantle	West Coast
11	Shaun Higgins	Western Bulldogs	Hawthorn
12	Nathan Jones	Melbourne	Geelong
13	Shannon Hurn	West Coast	St. Kilda
14	Grant Birchall	Hawthorn	Adelaide

This has a lot of movement. Marc Murphy to Brisbane as their three years of consecutive premiership hangover cure.
Carlton get Dale Thomas seven years earlier than scheduled.
Collingwood one-two punch opposition defences with Kennedy/Cloke forward line
Hawthorn start to assemble one of great midfields with Pendlebury, Dal Santo, Mitchell and Griffen.
Fremantle get Ryder as the perfect complement to Pavlich and Sandilands.
Clark finally ends up at Melbourne but goes to Brisbane as a free agent in 2013 after saying Fremantle is his preferred choice.
Adelaide siphon Birchall from the Hawks as well as Roughead.
2006

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Bryce Gibbs	Carlton	Port Adelaide
2	Scott Gumbleton	Essendon	Essendon
3	Lachlan Hansen	Kangaroos	North Melbourne
4	Matthew Leuenberger	Brisbane Lions	Carlton
5	Travis Boak	Port Adelaide	Brisbane
6	Mitchell Thorp	Hawthorn	Hawthorn
7	Joel Selwood	Geelong	Geelong
8	Ben Reid	Collingwood	Collingwood
9	David Armitage	St Kilda	St Kilda
10	Nathan Brown	Collingwood	Collingwood
11	Andrejs Everitt	Western Bulldogs	Western Bulldogs
12	James Frawley	Melbourne	Melbourne
13	Jack Riewoldt	Richmond	Richmond
14	James Sellar	Adelaide	Adelaide

Gibbs stays in South Australia. Port Adelaide start playing home games at Brighton Road (Adelaide joke).

Brisbane are on a serious re-build with Boak and Murphy added as Simon Black’s sidekicks.

Geelong fans rest easy as Selwood is a cat.

2007

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Matthew Kreuzer	Carlton	Brisbane
2	Trent Cotchin	Richmond	Essendon
3	Chris Masten	West Coast	Western Bulldogs
4	Cale Morton	Melbourne	Richmond
5	Jarrad Grant	Western Bulldogs	West Coast
6	David Myers	Essendon	Melbourne
7	Rhys Palmer	Fremantle	Fremantle
8	Lachlan Henderson	Brisbane Lions	Brisbane
9	Ben McEvoy	St Kilda	Adelaide
10	Patrick Dangerfield	Adelaide	Sydney
11	Patrick Veszpremi	Sydney	Collingwood
12	Cyril Rioli	Hawthorn	Hawthorn
13	Brad Ebert	West Coast	West Coast
14	Jack Grimes	Melbourne	Melbourne

Perhaps Leigh Matthews doesn’t retire. Matthew Kreuzer at the Lions makes Brisbane a serious contender for five minutes. Kreuzer does his ACL while boarding off his first flight from Melbourne.

Trent Cotchin ends up stealing Jobe Watson’s 2012 Brownlow Medal. Thanks Steven Dank just like Shane Woewodin did in 2000.

Dangerfield goes an unknown Victorian club in 2015 after seven years and a Norm Smith Medal -just like he will this year.

2008

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Jack Watts	Melbourne	North Melbourne
2	Nic Naitanui	West Coast	Melbourne
3	Stephen Hill	Fremantle	Fremantle
4	Hamish Hartlett	Port Adelaide	West Coast
5	Michael Hurley	Essendon	Port Adelaide
6	Chris Yarran	Carlton	Essendon
7	Daniel Rich	Brisbane Lions	Carlton
8	Tyrone Vickery	Richmond	Brisbane
9	Jack Ziebell	North Melbourne	Richmond
10	Phil Davis	Adelaide	Adelaide
11	Steele Sidebottom	Collingwood	Collingwood
12	Lewis Johnston	Sydney	Sydney
13	Tom Lynch	St Kilda	St Kilda
14 (F/S)	Ayce Cordy	Western Bulldogs	Western Bulldogs

North Melbourne pick Jack Watts. Is Jack Watts a different player if he was drafted by a better team? Is he saved from a career of demonic torture?

Melbourne accumulate more ruckmen. Carlton get one back on the Brisbane by recruiting Daniel Rich.

Michael Hurley enter the Port, instantly placed into a head-lock by Mark Williams as Choco shaves his head.

2009

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Tom Scully	Melbourne	Fremantle
2	Jack Trengove	Melbourne	West Coast
3	Dustin Martin	Richmond	North Melbourne
4	Anthony Morabito	Fremantle	Melbourne
5	Ben Cunnington	North Melbourne	Richmond
6	Gary Rohan	Sydney	Sydney
7	Brad Sheppard	West Coast	Port Adelaide
8	John Butcher	Port Adelaide	Port Adelaide
9	Andrew Moore	Port Adelaide	Essendon
10	Jake Melksham	Essendon	Melbourne
11	Jordan Gysberts	Melbourne	Carlton
12	Kane Lucas	Carlton	Adelaide
13	Daniel Talia	Adelaide	Sydney
14	Lewis Jetta	Sydney	Western Bulldogs

Sorry Melbourne fans. This must really suck. But hey, look at the last 10 years, they’ve also sucked. Sneaky Kangaroos start collecting some fine players.

I’d like to thank you for reading this article as we take a short three year break as the Suns and Giants ruin the draft and competitive football in the meantime.

And were back at the AFL draft lottery hypothetical or as Western Bulldogs fans call it – Morphine.

2013

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Thomas Boyd	Greater Western Sydney	Western Bulldogs
2	Josh Kelly	Greater Western Sydney	Greater Western Sydney
3	Jack Billings	St Kilda	North Melbourne
4	Marcus Bontempelli	Western Bulldogs	St. Kilda
5	Kade Kolodjashnij	Gold Coast	Gold Coast
6	Matthew Scharenberg	Collingwood	Collingwood
7	James Aish	Brisbane Lions	Brisbane Lions
8	Luke McDonald	North Melbourne	North Melbourne
9	Christian Salem	Melbourne	Melbourne
10	Nathan Freeman	Collingwood	Collingwood
11	Dom Sheed	West Coast	West Coast
12	Ben Lennon	Richmond	Richmond
13	Patrick Cripps	Carlton	Carlton
14	Cameron McCarthy	Greater Western Sydney	Greater Western Sydney

The year Franklin disappears to GWS, not Sydney due to salary cap even with COLA given they would have Riewoldt, Goddard and Dangerfield. Bulldogs find instant justice when winning the lottery.

Melbourne still regret trading for Dom Tyson, as Josh Kelly is a gun.

2014

Pick	Player	Original Club	New Club
1	Paddy McCartin	St Kilda	Richmond
2	Christian Petracca	Melbourne	St.Kilda
3	Angus Brayshaw	Melbourne	Melbourne
4	Jarrod Pickett	Greater Western Sydney	Greater Western Sydney
5	Jordan De Goey	Collingwood	Collingwood
6	Caleb Marchbank	Greater Western Sydney	Greater Western Sydney
7	Paul Ahern	Greater Western Sydney	Greater Western Sydney
8	Peter Wright	Gold Coast	Gold Coast
9	Darcy Moore	Collingwood	Collingwood
10	Nakia Cockatoo	Geelong	Geelong
11	Liam Duggan	West Coast	West Coast
12	Corey Ellis	Richmond	Richmond
13	Lachlan Weller	Fremantle	Fremantle
14	Jake Lever	Adelaide	Adelaide

There’s not much to say here because we haven’t seen the lottery, other than Richmond win the lottery.

So what does this mean historically?

Actual Honour Roll			Lottery Honour Roll
Year	Winner	Runner Up	Year	Winner	Runner Up
2000	Essendon	Melbourne	2000	Essendon	Melbourne
2001	Brisbane	Essendon	2001	Brisbane	Essendon
2002	Brisbane	Collingwood	2002	Brisbane	Collingwood
2003	Brisbane	Collingwood	2003	Brisbane	Collingwood
2004	Port Adelaide	Brisbane	2004	Port Adelaide	Geelong
2005	Sydney	West Coast	2005	Sydney	West Coast
2006	West Coast	Sydney	2006	Sydney	Adelaide
2007	Geelong	Port Adelaide	2007	Geelong	West Coast
2008	Hawthorn	Geelong	2008	Geelong	Hawthorn
2009	Geelong	St. Kilda	2009	Geelong	Western Bulldogs
2010	Collingwood	St. Kilda	2010	Western Bulldogs	Geelong
2011	Geelong	Collingwood	2011	Geelong	Hawthorn
2012	Sydney	Hawthorn	2012	Sydney	Hawthorn
2013	Hawthorn	Fremantle	2013	Hawthorn	Fremantle
2014	Hawthorn	Sydney	2014	Hawthorn	Sydney

Geelong win three flags in a row, but after a heart breaking seven-point loss to Buddy and Bartel’s Bulldogs to give Footscray their first premiership since 1954. Coach Rodney Eade finally gets his flag.

Geelong win four flags in five years after Gary Ablett Jnr joins Gold Coast in 2010.

In 2013, Clarkson finally lifts the trophy after three grand final losses had him looking like Ross Lyon.

Ross Lyon is still Ross Lyon. Flagless.

Chris Judd never meets Rebecca Judd, I mean Twigley, and instead marries a local girl named Lauren Phillips.

St. Kilda, Melbourne and Carlton are still bad, mainly because they are poorly run football clubs but also a lot to do with the draft.

So what do you think? Want the lottery or not? Would these results deter AFL clubs from tanking?

Follow Ian on Twitter @paudiang

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