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An injury ravaged and a very young England limps into the cauldron of Cardiff to attempt to slay wily Warren Gatland’s confident and 932-cap Red Dragons and avenge the 30-3 drubbing the last time these two proud teams played in Wales (a game England fullback Mike Brown says “was a closer game than most people will have you believe”.
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Several juicy storylines beckon in this opening match of the 2015 Six Nations. Can Stuart Lancaster’s team really be considered World Cup favourites if they are blown out again in Cardiff?
Is a 350+ cap deficit too much of a handicap for the Sweet Chariot? This is an average experience gap of about 16 caps a man.
Will Sam Warburton’s 50th cap for Wales coincide with Wales leveling this old rivalry at 57 wins each?
Who will erupt first? The fiery Dylan Hartley or the combustible Richard Hibbard?
Who is the happier Royal on Saturday morning: the Queen or the Prince of Wales?
Will Osprey’s sniper Rhys Webb seize the No 9 jersey for good, from the abrasive, but slow Mike Phillips?
Can Bath wunderkind George Ford make the pressure kicks and tackles at this level?
Which Welsh-raised, Southern Hemisphere-born cousin will prevail: Taulupe Faletau or Billy Vunipola?
Will a moment of magic or idiocy from a bench player (Danny Cipriani? Liam Williams?) be the clincher?
Roof open or closed? Is this the key?
Gatland announced his team two days early. Honestly, there was little suspense over his selections. A minor debate is possible about Leigh Halfpenny being preferred over an in-form Williams – but Halfpenny is the best marksman in world rugby.
Webb over Phillips? A young, gobby, properly irritating No 9 with speed around the edges rather than an older, annoying and transcendently cocky Phillips? Not a controversy.
Pugnacious Hibbard instead of ‘Bok-beating Scott Baldwin? Hibbard is just the kind of player needed for trench warfare in the first half against nothing-to-lose England.
Lancaster tried to simulate Cardiff conditions in training, even importing an eisteddfod into the act.
Gatland’s teams are always very fit, get over the gain-line, and defend tenaciously. The Welsh are buoyed by their recent 12-6 win over their nemesis, the Springboks. Wales is strong, big, and experienced just where England is young and unsettled: the midfield, the wings, and the fly-half channel. Alex Cuthbert (14 tries in 30 Tests) and George North (19 tries in 45 Tests) are as big as England’s second row. Jamie Roberts looks like a No 8.
The Sweet Chariot has been soured by injuries. Could many teams be competitive having lost players the calibre of Courtney Lawes, Joe Launchberry, Geoff Parling, Ben Morgan, Manu Tuilagi, Tom Wood, David Wilson, and Owen Farrell? Losing your best three locks and top blindside flank is usually fatal. But Lancaster has several Lions on his bench.
And cautionary notes:
– England won the last meeting, using set piece supremacy.
– Wales’ lineout can resemble a mosh pit; it is not the most solid.
– Referee Garces is a scrum aficionado. England might find some comfort there, with Joe Marler in ferocious form.
– Wales has a few niggles, too. Jonathan Davies might not be at top form.
– This “derby” tends to be tight; the average score line over 125 games is only 13-12 to England, and the longest win streak is just seven (England from 2000-2005).
Still, the number six team in the world is favoured over the number four team, in a series that dramatically tilts to the home team (Wales has lost only 20 of the 61 Anglo-Welsh Tests played in Wales).
There is not too much mystery about Gatland’s approach to this game. Roberts and Faletau will try to drive over Ford, Joseph, and Luther Burrell, to create a ruck target to launch strikes in the wider channels for their behemoth wings.
England will counter with mauls, Vunipola from the base, Mike Brown from the back, and clever kicking. To create more chances, England will need to get their own ball from the breakdown consistently at a decent pace, and then find some space.
Wales is blessed with more top talent: Gethin Jenkins and Alun Wyn Jones would make many all-time Welsh teams, North and Roberts are in the conversation for Six Nation bests, and Halfpenny was the hero of the British and Irish Lions. None of the current crop of English players would make a top 30 all-time RFU squad.
I’ll predict that Wales will score three tries at home and England will struggle to score two leading to a 6-8 point Welsh win.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.