Round 4 of the NRL season is nearly upon us, next week is Easter and the Cricket World Cup concludes on Sunday. The real footy season has turned up at last!
One of the Sharks or Titans will have two premiership points. The other coach will be in a rubber room. Souths continue to be the benchmark, and Newcastle continue to win ugly. The Cowboys are the team under the most pressure and they have matches against the Storm, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Warriors and Knights to come in the next five weeks.
I have tipped five from eight every round so far, so I am consistent – albeit consistently ordinary. Will there be any upsets? Let’s look at the games in order with the home side listed first:
Eels vs Rabbitohs
The Eels have had a really tough draw, and have a run of injuries to go with it.
They shouldn’t lose heart, but it is a hell of a week to draw Souths. Their defence was poor in the middle against the Warriors, but hopefully Nathan Peats will be fully recovered from concussion. Their left edge attack was good, and Souths will have Darryl Millard in for Dylan walker on that side.
Manu Ma’u will be hunting Rabbits down, that’s for sure. I expect Anthony Watmough to lift for Parramatta. By his own admission he has been ordinary so far.
The Rabbitohs will just keep on keeping on. Hard yards by the forwards, then let the creative halves look for the likes of Inglis and Johnston out wide.
Chris ‘Lightning’ McQueen will enjoy being in the starting line-up and with State of Origin chatter already commencing, he will want Mal Meninga to remember his name. I am looking forward to seeing George Burgess collide with Darcy Lussick early.
South did take a long time to get over the Tigers forwards.
Souths to win, but by less than ten points.
Tigers vs Bulldogs
The ‘dud’ Friday match, hidden among Channel Nine ads.
This should draw a good crowd for that reason alone. The Tigers are playing very structured football, and are not afraid to go hard at the opposing forwards.
Marty Tapau might bring the kitchen sink this week, because he threw everything else at Souths. I expect Curtis Sironen and Luke Brooks to have much better games this week – they seemed overawed last week.
There is a whisper that Aaron Woods (the new age Geoff Robinson) may be out, and that would be a big blow. James Tedesco will be looking to step through the big Bulldog pack as they tire.
I expect Des Hasler to do something different. This might be the game where the Bulldogs forwards bring back the ‘tip on’ plays.
They will appreciate a faster pitch than last week’s turner. The right side will target Deloiuse Hoeter so watch for Tim Lafai and Sam Perrett out wide.
Trent Hodkinson is overdue for a big game, so look for a show and go through the left edge to set up Josh Morris or “Mysha” Rona for try. I think the Bulldogs will come out on top in a hard fought game.
Knights vs Panthers
This potentially the match of the round. Both sides have very strong back fives, and make a lot of metres.
The Knights will not change their plans – Kurt Gidley will start at fullback, then drift into dummy half for Sione Mata’utia to play fullback.
Hard-running Dane Gagai will look to upset Jamal Idris’ slow turn around in defence. The old hard-headed forwards, Beau Scott and Jeremy Smith will hold their own and I expect them to try and niggle young Bryce Cartwright when he comes on.
The Panthers really need to establish their ground in the forward battle. Then when Cartwright and Tyrone Peachey come on, they can create gaps along with James Segeyaro.
Matt Moylan is the difference between the two sides. He has it all in attack and most importantly, has time to make decisions. I believe this will be a high scoring match and Penrith to just get home.
Sharks vs Titans
Well folks, this is it. Once more, over the top. The winning coach will take a long line around the park, and the losing coach will be singing “Am I ever going to see your face again?”.
The Titans have actually performed reasonably well, and been unlucky to lose two of their matches. Aiden Sezer has played particularly well, and Josh ‘Dustin’ Hoffman will be more settled back at fullback.
Dave Taylor will be better for the run last week, and Nate Myles, assuming he is fit, will take on the Fifita brothers.
The Sharks destroyed my credibility last week, yet on paper, they look a finals team. Missing Ben Barba may be a blessing, but it means they will play an even more forward dominant game with Wade Graham at six.
Part of me says the Sharks should win strongly, but for some reason I will tip the Titans.
Dragons vs Sea Eagles
Gee, I am old enough to remember when this would be match of the round.
Now the Dragons are grateful that they have finally learnt how to string five passes together. My feeling is that the more young guys, like Euan Aitken, are in this side the better they will go.
Tyson Frizell is a good worker and at last Trent Merrin is in the starting line-up. If Benji and Gareth remember the last 20 minutes against Canberra, this could be a Dragons win.
Manly will also be better for the return of Jamie Lyon and Kieran Foran. I just hope that Feleti Mateo doesn’t go back into his shell. I expect the Eagles forwards to hold their own and let Daly Cherry-Evans perform his magic. Manly by eight I think.
Warriors vs Broncos
The Warriors will enjoy being at home again and I expect them to continue their first half form of last week. Losing Sam Tomkins is a blow, but he plays like a five-eighth whereas Tuimoala Lolohea plays like a running fullback – I think his game suits the Warriors better.
As usual Ben Matulino will set a platform and Thomas Leuluai, Shaun Johnson and Chad Townsend will be sniffing for holes in the rucks.
The Broncos are back to running the ball, so their forwards will need to hold their own and allow Ben Hunt and the reborn Anthony Milford to make breaks. To be honest, I expect a free flowing game, particularly in the second half.
If so the Warriors should come out on top in a 50-plus points match.
Roosters vs Raiders
This looks like a mismatch.
The Roosters will flex their muscles and establish dominance in the forwards, then allow James Maloney and Mitchell Pearce to set the speed men up out wide. I expect the likes of Blake Ferguson and Michael Jennings to have a big day out in the afternoon sun. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will also be a nightmare for Canberra in the second half.
The Raiders will start hard early, but they must be able to keep up the pace for eighty minutes.
Iosia Soliola and Josh Hodgson have been impressive, but the difference between NRL and Super league shows up in the second half.
Having Jack Wighton and Jordan Rapana at the back will help them with good kick returns, but on the downside Jarrod Croker will feel like a windmill with the amount of bodies running at him.
Remember TV fans, this is a 2pm match on Channel Nine, due to the Cricket World Cup Final. The Roosters will win by an innings.
Cowboys vs Storm
The Cowboys will have circled their wagons this week, and so they should. Their commitment is a long way short of their ability. Apparently James Tamou is being shopped around, which cannot help.
There is no solution other than for the whole team to lift and work for each other. I can’t believe that Paul Green went for the old chestnut – get flogged in the forwards and drop your wingers. I expect they will improve, but will it be enough?
The Storm are the best team at exposing weaknesses in their opponents. Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are the surgeons, and Billy Slater their anaesthetist.
The unsung heroes are the forwards, Tohu Haris and Jesse Bromwich in particular bowing to no man. The other guys to impress are the wingers Young Onomatopoeia and Marika Koirobete. I tip the Storm to be too professional on Monday Night.
So there you have it. Remember, if you put your house on my tips, the Reserve Bank said prices are about to fall.
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