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After 11 rounds, the New Zealand conference is without doubt the strongest in Super Rugby. It has two teams sitting more than a game clear of any rivals from other conferences and another two hovering just outside the top six.
The New Zealand conference could potentially have four sides in the top six except for the fact that they have play each another twice, which in effect has the potential to cannibalise their chances of finishing on top and in the top six.
However this season, most of the sides have done the business with their overseas games, with South Africa and Australia being fruitful trips.
Leading the conference and the Super Rugby ladder on 38 points is the Hurricanes. They possess arguably the strongest backline in world club rugby with their six All Blacks firing and Nehe Milner-Skudder emerging as a great future talent. Their scrum looks the weakest of all the New Zealand sides, however, and is their possible Achilles heel.
They have seven games left, and all in New Zealand after winning all four tour games. The run home will not be an easy one, however, with home-and-away fixtures to the Chiefs and Crusaders, home games to the Sharks and Highlanders and an away game to the Blues. Should they win all their home games and the away fixture to the Blues it should be enough to lock down a top spot.
Next, on 37 points, are the Chiefs. They appear a more balanced side than the Hurricanes with strength in their pack and backline, although they lack the brilliance of the Hurricanes. The loss of Aaron Cruden is a huge one and Damian MacKenzie will need to step up big time to fill those shoes. His games this season have been encouraging so far, however.
The Chiefs have only lost twice this year and both of them narrowly, where arguably they should have won both except for some woeful kicking. They still have two games in Australia against the Reds and Rebels which will present challenges for them, along with home games to the Bulls and Hurricanes and away games to the Highlanders and Hurricanes.
Where they sit on the ladder three wins should be enough to secure a top six spot, but to win the New Zealand conference they will probably have to win both fixtures against the Hurricanes.
Back on 28 points is the Highlanders. Like the Hurricanes they have seven games left but, unlike the rest of the New Zealand teams, they have yet to do their overseas tour. They do play arguably the two weakest South African sides in the Lions and Cheetahs away, along with the worst Australian side in the Force, so wins in those three games will go a long way to securing a top six spot.
They have home games to the Sharks and Chiefs and away games to the Blues and Hurricanes so the potential to notch five wins is definitely there. Only three of their games are against fellow conference teams which, given the strength on the New Zealand conference, is a bonus.
Languishing on 25 points are the Crusaders. It is unfamiliar territory for them and they have one nasty run home. Away games to the Brumbies, Waratahs and Hurricanes are three of their assignments. Another away game to the Blues and two home games to the Reds and Hurricanes are the remaining games.
They will need to win a minimum of four games to make the top six and basically every week will be like a final to them with this knowledge. A desperate Crusaders team is a deadly proposition for any side and they have the potential to cause some real havoc. They would be an outside chance of the top six with their run home, but you can never write them off.
In last spot on 11 points are the Blues. Their season has been a frustrating one, losing six of their games by less than seven points. If they win those games they are sitting in the top six. They have the players and potential to cause a few headaches in the final weeks, and it should be noted that after 10 rounds they have only played three home games.
Of those three games only one of them was at Eden Park, which incidentally is their only win of the season. They are a tough prospect at Eden Park, where they play five of their remaining six games, and they could come home hard. They play the Rebels away and the Hurricanes, Crusaders, Bulls, Force and Highlanders at home.
With the New Zealand conference it is hard to see the Hurricanes not finishing top and overall on top of the Super Rugby ladder. The Chiefs can put a spanner in the works but will need to beat the Hurricanes twice to give them a chance of that. If they split the wins then the extra game the Hurricanes have might be enough to see them finish top.
The Highlanders look a solid prospect for a top six spot and the Crusaders are a rough prospect but they will need to hit their straps and bring their A game for the next six weeks for that to happen. The Blues should finish the season hard and improve a few spots, ensuring a New Zealand side doesn’t finish in last spot.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.