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We’re now over a quarter of the way through the season, and if the last two weeks have taught us anything, it’s that we still have no idea how 2015 is going to play out.
On to the stock watch!
(If you’re unfamiliar with the concept it is explained here.)
Rising
Unpredictability
Only six weeks in, this season has already produced its fair share of surprises, with Round 6 only serving to cause more chaos. Anyone who says they tipped Greater Western Sydney against Hawthorn and/or West Coast against Port is a liar.
Everyone now has at least one win on the board and at least two losses, with Fremantle being the only exception, and the only team that has truly separated itself as a top-four certainty. Five out of the current top eight teams didn’t play finals last season, and 12 teams have won at least half their games so far.
This can obviously be attributed to imbalances in the fixture, as top-eight teams from last year have played a number of games against each other, and things will even out as the year progresses, but it certainly makes the season more exciting to see all four of last year’s preliminary finalists with at least two losses after Round 6.
With only one game separating second from 12th place on the ladder, this could end up being one of the most exciting seasons in recent memory.
West Coast
For a team that has been neither good enough nor bad enough to draw much interest over the last two years, the last two weeks have made people pay attention. A huge win over a GWS team that beat the reigning premiers over the weekend and a stirring away victory over Port have made the Eagles relevant again.
Perhaps most impressive is the fact that the Eagles beat the trendy pick for the premiership with Josh Kennedy affected by his shoulder injury and kicking only one goal.
Something seems to have clicked for West Coast over the last couple of weeks. Whether the players are finally grasping Adam Simpson’s game plan or simply playing with an attitude that comes from being fed up with being labeled ‘flat-track bullies’, they have found a successful formula.
If they stick to it, they may very well find themselves playing in September for the first time since 2012.
St Kilda
The comeback from 55 points down against the Dogs was brilliant, but it takes attention away from the fact that two weeks ago the Saints played fantastic footy without two of their most experienced players against a side that made the finals last season and are expecting to get back there in 2015.
St Kilda has been competitive in three out of their four losses so far, not a bad result for a team widely predicted to win the wooden spoon easily.
If the effort level is maintained, and as the talent of young players continues to develop, this will be a scary team in the not-too-distant future.
Jack Redden
Lost among the fanfare of the arrivals of Dayne Beams and Allen Christensen along with the return of Daniel Rich from a knee injury has been Redden’s return from a stress fracture which cut short his 2014 season.
Averaging 22.5 disposals at 78 per cent efficiency to go along with four clearances and five tackles per game, Redden has outperformed a number of his more highly regarded teammates, and apart from Beams, has been the Lions’ best player over the first six games.
He is quietly putting together a case to be seen as Brisbane’s most important midfielder outside of Beams and Tom Rockliff.
Falling
Gold Coast
After finally winning a game, you’d think the Suns would get a week long reprieve from the media spotlight. Instead, they had to deal with players drinking when told not to, which provoked questions regarding the club’s leadership, with many wondering aloud whether Gary Ablett is the right man to lead this team.
The result was that the highly talented trio of Harley Bennell (leading disposal winner in the win against Brisbane), Brandon Matera and Trent McKenzie were suspended for the game against the Crows. Subtract those names from a team already missing huge star power and the Suns never stood a chance against Adelaide.
Melbourne’s offensive improvement
Season 2015 started with optimism surrounding the Demons’ attacking gameplan, with promises that the shackles would be broken and players would be given more freedom with the ball. For all the improvement shown in Round 1 against the Suns, Melbourne have come crashing back to earth with very poor offensive output against the Dockers and Swans over the last two weeks, managing only 50 points in each game.
Admittedly, most teams struggle to score against the two best defensive teams in the league, but it is the way in which Melbourne have seemingly gone into self-preservation mode when they fall behind that is concerning. It’s very difficult to kick a winning score against anyone when you’re last in the league in uncontested possessions, total possessions and inside 50s.
Goalkicking
All the time we hear past players say that the only thing that hasn’t improved in our game is converting set shots, despite the fact that today’s players are more skilful than ever. Over the weekend, with a number of close games in the fourth quarter, poor goalkicking stood out more than usual.
With the Pies down by five goals early in the last quarter and dominating general play, Travis Cloke took a mark 15 metres out pretty much directly in front. Needless to say, he missed, and with that, Collingwood’s best efforts to pull off a St Kilda-like comeback faded.
Collingwood kicked 5.8 from 14 set shots on Friday night, with a number of misses coming from inexcusable locations.
Liam Jones had a chance to pull the Blues to within a goal with under a minute left, but from 40 metres out directly in front he couldn’t even register a behind.
It would of course be foolish to attribute these losses solely to those pivotal missed opportunities, but everything that happens in the fourth quarter of a close game (or in the Pies’ case, during an attempted comeback) will face added scrutiny.
AFL players simply must convert easy opportunities at goal.
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