Every club is now at least halfway through their season, so it’s time to check up on the stock watch. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, it’s explained here.
Rising
Nic Naitanui
For all the focus on his deficiencies, Naitanui is putting together a fantastic season. The stats don’t do justice to the work he has done this season in helping the Eagles’ midfield, thought to be the weakness of the team heading into 2015, dominate its opponents.
Yes, he has taken only 10 marks in 12 games despite being over two metres in height and possessing freakish leaping ability, but his impact on games is unquestionable.
Naitanui is eighth in the league for hitouts, averaging 32.5 per game, but his work at ground level is where he stands out. He averages more centre clearances than any other ruckman and is ranked equal third among ruckmen for contested possessions per game.
We knew about Naitianui’s influence at stoppages, but his ability to contribute to attacking chains may not be so well known. He sends the ball inside 50 2.8 times per game, which is third among rucks and has kicked 11 goals, which is more than any other number one ruckman.
The only ruckmen who can rival Nic Nat for impact in 2015 are Shane Mumford, Todd Goldstein and Aaron Sandilands. Now that Mumford is out injured for the rest of the season, a second All Australian selection may be on the cards for Naitanui.
Patrick Cripps
Where one journey ends, another begins. Chris Judd must be content that he has left the Blues’ midfield in good hands.
Only halfway through his second AFL season, the former number 13 draft pick is already a star and has been a driving force behind Carlton’s improvement in recent weeks.
The only other players averaging over 14 contested possessions per game while using the ball at greater than 70 per cent efficiency are Robbie Gray, Matt Priddis and Nat Fyfe. That’s pretty good company – don’t forget, Cripps is in his second season.
Cripps can also be found in the AFL’s top 20 for average clearances per game, while ranking top three at Carlton for average disposals and average tackles.
To say that Cripps has a bright future ahead of him would be an understatement. Despite all the questions surrounding Carlton’s future, the Blues can be satisfied that one cornerstone of their rebuild is in place.
The Rising Star Award race
Last year’s race went down to the wire, and it’s looking like we may have a similar scenario on our hands in 2015.
After an uninspired start to the season in which none of the nominees separated themselves from the pack, and the only one who had – Isaac Heeney – suffered a medium-term knee injury, it now appears as if this year’s award could go to any of six potential worthy winners.
Heeney will have every chance to win if he can return to the Swans’ line-up, but even if he makes a full recovery and returns to being an impact player for Sydney, he will face stiff competition from the Suns’ Adam Saad, Cam McCarthy of the Giants, the Demon duo of Jesse Hogan and Angus Brayshaw and the aforementioned Cripps.
The Collingwood forward line
The Pies have taken a massive step forward in 2015, much of which can be attributed to offensive improvement. Collingwood was the fourth worst offensive team in 2014, scoring only 80 points per game, and the forward line’s failure to fire was a major factor behind missing the finals.
Even when the Pies found themselves in the top four after Round 12 last year, they averaged fewer points per game than the Eagles, who were in 11th place at that stage.
What a difference one year can make. After Round 12 2015, the Pies are ranked third for points scored per game, with an average of 101. Collingwood’s three leading goalkickers this year: Travis Cloke, Jamie Elliott and Jesse White, have kicked 31, 25 and 18 goals respectively to the halfway point of the season. For all of 2014, they kicked 39, 33 and 20 goals respectively.
On top of this, Collingwood are ranked behind only Hawthorn in inside 50s per game, and take more marks inside 50 than any other club. Surprisingly, the Pies are also the most accurate goalkicking team in the AFL.
Attacking improvement was obviously singled out as a goal by Nathan Buckley and his coaches for this season. So far, it’s looking like the improvement could make Collingwood a finals team again.
Falling
Injuries to key personnel
Unfortunately, we may not see the best of the Giants for the rest of the season. The loss of Shane Mumford will play a huge role in whether the Giants continue their charge into the finals or fall short. Todd Goldstein completely dominated GWS, with 80 hitouts and his customary strong presence around the ground.
To add to the Giants’ anguish, the loss of Phil Davis and Joel Patfull against Collingwood leaves them short of key defenders. It didn’t prove to be an issue against the Kangaroos as Jarrad Waite, Drew Petrie and Ben Brown only kicked six goals between them, but one can only assume it will cause headaches in the near future.
Leon Cameron would’ve been stressing the old coach’s adage of ‘next man up’ but it doesn’t always work out that way.
West Coast has somehow managed to withstand the loss of its best key defenders, but it is the exception as opposed to the rule. While the 186 centimetre Brad Sheppard and the 185 centimetre Sharrod Wellingham have admirably filled in for Eric MacKenzie and Mitch Brown thus far, it would be optimistic to think that the Eagles won’t be exposed at some stage.
It’s cruel, but injuries happen. The Giants will be able to get extra games into youngsters, but their 2015 finals prospects may suffer.
Joel Selwood
The inspirational Geelong captain is arguably having his worst AFL season. The prolonged absence of Jimmy Bartel and Mitch Duncan due to injury, along with the fact that Steve Johnson is spending more time up forward this season has meant that Selwood has played a lone hand in the midfield for much of the season.
Taggers that went to Stevie J in the past are now following Selwood around to great effect. Averages of 23 disposals, 13 contested possessions, seven clearances and almost six tackles are brilliant numbers for almost anyone else, but for Selwood, they constitute something of an off year.
23 disposals is his lowest average since his debut season, and his disposal efficiency of 67.9 per cent is the lowest the Cats’ skipper has recorded in his sterling career thus far. Selwood is also averaging a career low in uncontested possessions, highlighting the intense scrutiny he is facing on a weekly basis from the opposition. He just can’t get near the ball without facing immense pressure.
If only the Cats could find a contested ball winning midfielder somewhere to help the captain…
Brisbane’s midfield
Touted as the lifeblood of a team with very few established key position players, the Lions’ midfield as a whole has been wildly disappointing in 2015.
Injuries to Tom Rockliff and Pearce Hanley haven’t helped, but there is simply no excuse for the fact that Brisbane has lost the contested possession count in every game it has played in 2015. The Lions haven’t just been losing the battle inside, they’ve been simply annihilated at the contest, as they have lost the contested possession count by double figures in eight out of eleven games.
It’s frightening to think of how those numbers may look if it weren’t for Dayne Beams.
It should come as no surprise that the Lions’ forward line is struggling as a result, as the ball is only getting inside 50 45 times per game, third worst in the league.
A forward line with young key position players needs a lot more help from its midfield if this Lions team is to improve on its 2-9 record.
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Things heating up in Canberra!
We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
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Round 5 of the AFL provided plenty of action, from big scorelines to upset wins and pressure starting to build on some clubs and coaches already.
