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A wildly entertaining 2014-15 NBA season has sadly come to an end. Luckily for us though, the fun and games continue with this week’s 2015 NBA draft.
Much like the 2015 finals, this year’s draft has its own set of fascinating subplots. We’re pretty sure Karl-Anthony Towns is going number 1, but from there on it becomes intriguing.
The Philadelphia 76ers don’t need another centre but if the Lakers look to re-ignite the glorious show-time days of the 80s and draft smooth-moving combo guard D’Angelo Russell, then the hand of Sixers GM, Sam Hinkie, might be “forced” into selecting Jahlil ‘Ode to the 90s big man’ Okafor.
Of course, he could take a gamble on the sweet shooting 7 foot Latvian Kristaps Porzingis, hoping to find the next Dirk Nowitzki – but he could very likely be finding Andrea Bargnani instead.
Don’t get me wrong, I like the look of Porzingis but selecting him over Okafor is like hitting in a game of black jack when you are already sitting on 19. You might improve your hand, but there’s a greater likelihood you’ll go bust.
While Sam Hinkie comes off as a man portraying himself as a card counting savant – judging his past draft and roster building strategies as evidence – chances are he isn’t the NBA’s version of Rainman.
If the Lakers do indeed draft D’Angelo Rusell, Philly would be wise in taking Okafor and dealing with the logjam at the centre position at a later date. Joel Embiid’s foot problems need to be taken into account here. Unfortunately, it’s quite likely his first two seasons will be wiped out without him playing a single NBA minute. At this stage he’s looking more like Greg Oden than Hakeen Olajuwon – the fellow African he was compared to prior to last year’s draft.
With that in mind, the Sixers will almost certainly pass on Porzingis, leaving the poor Knicks with a difficult decision. It’s no surprise the Knicks are open to trading the fourth pick, it’s a tricky spot to be in.
While most draft pundits agree on the top three players in the draft, not many share the same view for the fourth pick. Some have Porzingis, gushing over his offensive potential while glossing over his defensive deficiencies, others like fellow Euro baller Mario Hezonja and some Emmanuel Mudiay, while others have Justise Winslow.
Each come with their own set of question marks. Kristaps is the riskiest pick but probably has the highest ceiling, Hezonja and Mudiay are also considered risky – although in completely different ways – but both have superstar potential.
Winslow on the other hand is as safe a bet as you can make. He reminds me a lot of Jimmy Butler, he’s great defender, can guard multiple positions and does a bit of everything on the offensive end. He’ll probably never be a franchise player you can build a team around but he can certainly be your number two guy.
But having said all that, the number four spot is probably a little too high to be taking Winslow. The Knicks I’m sure are looking for that ‘face of the franchise player’ to replace Carmelo Anthony, who’s nearing the end of his career. Conversely, the Knicks could try to flip the pick into two later round or future first round selections in the hope of turning them into two Winslow-type players.
That’s the dilemma some GMs are going to have to deal with during this year’s draft. While some will have players fall into their laps, others are going to have to choose between playing it safe or going for broke.
Sit on 16 or take a chance and go for 21? Swing for the fences or bunt for a single? Driver off the fairway or…you get the idea.
On the topic of safe and risky picks, here are some of the players I’d feel comfortable drafting and also some that would make me more nervous than a DeAndre Jordan free-throw.
The safe picks
Myles Turner
Turner is my favourite player in the draft. Under different circumstances – playing for a better college coach and better program – he could be pushing for a top three spot in the draft.
Let me ask you a question, how many NBA centres are elite rim protectors and elite three point shooters? Because that’s exactly what Turner looks like turning into. Wouldn’t surprise me if he ends of being the best player in this draft.
Stanley Johnson
Johnson is suited to the modern game. He could be a better offensive version of Draymond Green but with the same defensive talents.
Bobby Portis
I certainly wouldn’t be drafting him in the top 10 but looks to be great value as a late lottery pick. His game translates well to the NBA. Perfectly suited to play as a small ball/stretch power forward, great shooter. He will need to get stronger though, to be able to defend bigger forwards in the post.
The risky picks
Kristaps Porzingis
I have no doubt he’ll be able to score points in the NBA but defensively, at this stage, his going to give up a lot of points too. Should be able to get stronger as he matures but if he doesn’t he won’t have a long career in the NBA.
I don’t think I’d have the kahunas to pick him in the top 8. I hope he does make it though, fun player to watch.
Emmanual Mudiay
He only has one major flaw to his game but unfortunately it’s a big one – shooting. In today’s NBA you need to be able to shoot. Even if he only becomes an average shooter, he’ll have a great career.
At this stage that looks like a big if. I wouldn’t draft in the top 6
Devin Booker
Although he’s an exceptional shooter, Booker struggles to create shots for himself. He’ll be relying on the players around him to create open looks. Also a big worry on the defensive end, below average length and quickness, not ideal. Wouldn’t pick in the lottery.
If you’d like to see a more thorough scouting report on the rest of the potential lottery picks in this year’s draft, check out these two articles I wrote just prior to the NCAA tournament.
After the previous year’s fizzer of an NFL Draft I’m betting the NBA draft lives up to the hype. As well as being, potentially, one of the better drafts in recent years, it’s shaping up to be a very fascinating one. Early draft picks for the big markets of LA and New York make for an interesting spectacle. And I can’t wait to see what Sam Hinkie and Phil Jackson come up with.
Will they roll the dice or play it safe? We’ll find out later in the week.
Gamble responsibly everyone.
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