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With another two weeks having gone by, it’s time to have a look at the stock watch. If you’re unfamiliar with the concept, it’s explained here.
On to the stock watch.
Rising
GWS’ depth
After the Round 11 loss to Collingwood, it was widely thought the Giants of 2015 would follow a similar arc to the 2014 Suns: impressive opening before injuries to key personnel derailed the season. So far, it hasn’t happened.
GWS remains firmly in the top eight, with hard fought wins over the rapidly improving Saints and Suns following a nine point loss against the Tigers.
Clearly, the Giants aren’t willing to give up on dreams of September, despite Dylan Shiel joining Shane Mumford, Phil Davis and Joel Patfull on the injury list.
We all knew about the top end talent at the Giants’ disposal, but we weren’t so sure about the capability of the fringe players to contribute when called upon. Those concerns have been quelled for the moment.
Aidan Corr, Nick Haynes and Matt Buntine have belied their smaller frames to take on much larger opponents, while Zac Williams has impressed as a running half back, averaging 18.5 disposals at 81 per cent efficiency and 4.5 score involvements since returning to the senior team in round 12.
Despite having played only three AFL games between them up until Round 12 this year, Rory Lobb and Tom Downie have admirably filled in for the irreplaceable Mumford. In fact, the Giants haven’t lost much of their effectiveness at stoppages, averaging 38.5 clearances per game in four games without Mumford, as opposed to 39 clearances per game in 11 games with him.
We hear so much about how the Giants have enough former first round picks on their list that they should be able to cover any injuries, but it is ironic that three of the players who have lifted their output in a time of need were not first round picks (Williams was pick 54 in the 2012 rookie draft, Lobb was pick 29 in the 2013 national draft and Downie was pick 56 in the 2011 national draft).
If these players can continue to stand up, GWS will make its first finals appearance in 2015.
Essendon’s youth
As it becomes more and more obvious that Essendon won’t be playing finals in 2015, James Hird has (quite rightly) decided that now is the time to introduce the club’s next generation to senior footy. There are now 12 players with fewer than 50 games’ experience who have suited up for the Bombers over the last two weeks, with encouraging results.
For sake of comparison, the Essendon squad which took on the Swans in Round 1 contained only five such players.
Essendon’s recruitment of veterans such as Paul Chapman, Adam Cooney and James Gwilt over the last two offseasons, along with the loss of its 2013 and 2014 first round draft picks as punishment for the supplements saga, has given the Bombers a list with the age profile of a premiership contender. Clearly, Essendon won’t be adding to its trophy collection in the near future, so now is the time to regenerate.
Given the loss of those high draft picks however, fans and pundits were left to ponder whether the players taking the club into its next great era are currently on the list. The last two weeks have shown that although there will be tough seasons ahead, the list doesn’t lack for young potential impact players.
Two scrappy performances against the Demons and Kangaroos for one win and one loss aren’t particularly impressive, but when compared to the completely uncompetitive performace against the Saints beforehand, it’s a sign of progress.
At the very least, fans can get excited about Shaun Edwards’ weekly highlights (three goals, two contenders for mark of the year and numerous displays of breathtaking speed over the last two weeks), Nick O’Brien’s stoppage work (39 disposals, 19 contested possessions and six clearances in his last two games) and Ariel Steinberg’s ability to compete against forwards much larger than himself.
Add this to the continued improvement of Zach Merrett and Joe Daniher, and we can slowly start to see a bright on-field future for the Bombers.
Falling
Hawthorn’s competition
Well, we didn’t see that coming. A fortnight featuring games against alleged premiership contenders Fremantle and Sydney was supposed to test Hawthorn.
Instead, the Hawks have barnstormed their way into premiership favouritism with two dominant displays of near perfect footy. If the two most likely challengers can’t even get to within 70 points of the Hawks, should we just acknowledge the season is already over?
Although the Hawks were terrific in dismantling their most worthy opposition for the 2015 premiership, the story here is the way in which the Swans and Dockers crumbled on the big stage. For two teams which pride themselves on being the stingiest in the league, Sydney and Fremantle have given up 23 and 17 goals to the Hawks’ offensive juggernaut respectively over the last fortnight.
That’s a problem.
Since the start of 2013, Fremantle has had 70 points scored against them per game on average. Against the Hawks, this rises to 107.6 points per game. Similarly, in the same time period, Sydney has conceded an average of 74 points per game, which increases to 110 against Hawthorn. Amazingly, both teams are six goals worse off defensively when playing against the Hawks.
If they had the offensive firepower at the other end to match it with the Hawks, the defensive lapses may not be so critical. However with both forward lines struggling, the defensive issues are magnified. Since the start of 2013, Fremantle has scored close to 90 points per game, while Sydney’s much hyped forward line has scored 95 points per game in the same timeframe. Against the Hawks, these averages drop to 74 and 80 points per game respectively.
Essentially, Hawthorn has been able to beat the Dockers and Swans at their own games over a three year period. That doesn’t bode well for either team’s chances this year. Perhaps adjustments to the gameplan are in order when facing the Hawks.
Honourable losses
Collingwood’s form over the last month has not been bad, and for the majority of that time it has played some very good footy, but when you lose four games in a row, questions need to be asked. If you had told most Pies fans at the start of the season that their team would lose to the Dockers in Perth by seven points before losing by 10 points to the Hawks, they undoubtedly would have taken it.
However as the games played out, it was painfully obvious that the Pies should have won them both, and if it weren’t for poor goalkicking at particularly inopportune times, they may have done so. Collingwood would have been expecting to beat the Power, but simply couldn’t recover as Port kicked five goals to one in the first quarter. Against the Eagles, the Pies were competitive for three quarters before losing by 31 points.
We can’t go too hard on the Pies, given their week to week lineup is as young and inexperienced as any in the league, but eventually, those honourable losses need to become wins. Despite the team’s obvious improvement on last year, 2015 is following a similar script: 8-3 start, followed by injuries and a loss of form leading to a finish outside the top eight.
The last month has shown the Pies are capable of matching it with the best teams in the league, but four losses by margins under two goals will be the reason they fail to make the finals for a second straight season.
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