From the moment Brownlow Medal favourite Nat Fyfe’s number was taken by the umpire in Sunday’s loss to North Melbourne, there was little doubt it would become the major talking point of the round.
After having already been fined twice this season, Fyfe’s medal chances hang in the balance as even a fine will see him suspended for a week and therefore ruled ineligible for the AFL’s highest individual award.
Betting agencies immediately went into meltdown, while mainstream and social media has been awash with all manner of possible outcomes, and the inevitable question of, if not Fyfe than who?
The usual suspects have all been put forward – Sam Mitchell, Daniel Hannebery, Matt Priddis, Patrick Dangerfield and Todd Goldstein, along with the likes of Scott Pendlebury, David Mundy, Trent Cotchin, Joel Selwood and Andrew Gaff.
However, there is a former winner who has been left out of the majority of possible Brownlow medallist discussions, and after having a closer look at his season so far, as well as his polling history on past Brownlow nights, it is hard to understand why.
That former winner is of course Collingwood’s Dane Swan, and after having (according to Swan himself) a putrid 2014, has this season returned to the type of form that has seen him poll extraordinarily well over four of the past five years.
Even should Fyfe escape any sanction, as according to many he should, and still be eligible for the Brownlow, it would not totally surprise to see Swan still top the medal count – or at least be thereabouts.
In the four seasons prior to his annus horribilis of 2014, Dane Swan finished third, first, fourth and third in the Brownlow Medal.
From 2010 to 2013 he polled a total 109 votes – the most by any player, including a record 34 in 2011, the year he took out ‘Charlie’ at an average 1.31 votes per game.
The next best Brownlow performers throughout this same period were Gary Ablett Jr with 101 votes at 1.23 per game, Sam Mitchell (87 votes at 1.08), Scott Pendlebury (84 at 1.0), and Joel Selwood (79 at 0.98).
Interestingly too, Swan won only one Copeland Trophy (2010) during this time, while Scott Pendlebury collected two (2011, 2013) and Dayne Beams the other (2012). Yet in each of these years Swan polled more Brownlow votes than both. Further evidence he attracts the attention of the umpires – and not in a bad way.
Over that same four-year period Swan averaged 32 disposals, five marks, three tackles and a goal per game. Despite winning the Brownlow in 2011, arguably his most productive season was in 2012 when he averaged 35 possessions a game. Had he not missed four games that year he may well have collected his second medal.
Statistically Swan has been if not perhaps equal, at least almost as good in 2015 as he was over these four seasons he polled so well, averaging just a fraction under 30 disposals, five marks and four tackles per game.
Not surprisingly given his average per game, Swan has topped 30 disposals in a game 12 times already this season with two rounds still to go, which is comparable to his Brownlow Medal winning year in which he collected over 30 possessions 15 times.
He has also kicked 20 goals for the season, and only needs another two to finish the year with his second best return of his career behind the 30 he kicked in 2011.
Not only is Swan’s 2015 season comparable with those from 2010 to 2013, it also stacks up well against Brownlow Medal favourite Nat Fyfe, who has averaged 29 disposals, four marks and four tackles per game, while kicking 17 goals. Fyfe has topped 30 possessions in a game nine times this season.
Dane Swan may not be in the running for any of the player of the year awards given out by various media outlets and associations, nor has he been included in many discussions centred around Brownlow Medal contenders – with or without Nat Fyfe.
However he certainly should be. As not only has he had an outstanding season, he has proven over the years to be a favourite of the umpires when it comes to handing out Brownlow votes.
And while another Brownlow Medal to Swanny may seem unlikely, it is certainly within the realms of possibility – particularly in a season with as many upsets as 2015 has seen.
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