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The unerring faith we’ve all held in Hawthorn has been tested in 2015, and on Friday night it will be pushed to breaking point.
Whether the premiership favouritism has allowed you to accept it or not, the Hawks have been exposed in 2015, and just like every champion to ever march before them, their destiny is to be drawn back into the pack.
That pack has hooked them multiple times this season, but the cunning Hawks have managed to skip away unscathed. On Friday night against the Eagles they were reeled into the boat and smacked with a splintery oar.
Despite this, when the Crows and Hawks run out onto the MCG, the expectation will be that the reigning back-to-back premiers will take their place in another preliminary final.
It’s deserved favouritism; nobody can deny it’s a team that has done it all before against a team that hasn’t. But how about we try and make it interesting? Let’s take a look at some of the key departments that will determine the match, and outline why Crows fans have reason to believe they can topple the champs.
Clearances
Although the Hawks averaged a clearance more than the Crows in 2015, in terms of big-game players that get their hands on it, the scales tip in the Crows’ favour with Patrick Dangerfield (154 clearances this year at an average of 7) and Scott Thompson (142 at an average of 7.1) the only two top ten clearance men that will be hitting the field on Friday.
Sam Mitchell tops the ranks for the Hawks with 114 at an average of 5.4 – from there they share the load.
The Hawks may be the league’s second-best clearance side, but they’re lacking the master possessed by every other team still left in the finals race. There’s a good chance someone will step up on the night (they always seem to!), but the most in-form clearance men will all run out wearing red, yellow and blue.
Hitouts
Again, hitouts are an area the Hawks have led the Crows in 2015, averaging 41.6 to the Crows 40.4. Despite not possessing a league-leading ruckman, as we established, the Hawks do so well around the contest that they more than get by. Simply, as with their clearance work, everyone chips in and they get the job done.
In 2015 David Hale has averaged 17.5 hitouts from 15 games, Ben McEvoy managed 20.1 from 16 games and Jonathan Ceglar 23.2 from 14 games. They’re good, but they’re lengths behind the competition’s best. In contrast, Sam Jacobs has averaged 37.2 from 22 games, placing him in the top five for total and average hitouts.
If the Hawks go in as they did against West Coast, the combination will be Hale and McEvoy – an untested combination against the Crows.
Kicking Goals
As is the case with the men who command the hitouts and clutch the clearances, the Crows will run out with the more in-form forward line on Friday night. Eddie Betts and Taylor Walker are both in the top four for goals kicked this year, while the Hawks’ leading man, Jack Gunston, looks certain to miss the match with an ankle injury.
Luke Breust and Jarryd Roughead are there for the Hawks, of course, each booting 45 so far this year. But hot on their heels are Tom Lynch and Josh Jenkins on 43 and 42 for the season respectively.
The touted ‘luxury’ that the Hawks possess once again becomes the ability to rely on a large number of their players to contribute on the scoreboard, instead of requiring heroics from an individual or two.
But if ever there is a time for heroes, it’s September. When the crunch moments come, you’d rather have one of the league’s leading ruckmen tapping it to two of the best clearance men, who get to deliver it forward to the second and fourth highest goal-kickers.
Eddie Betts has been the form small forward in 2015. (Photo: Justine Walker/AFL Media)
But how can the Crows really win?
Let me repeat, the Hawks are favourite for this game, and it’s for good reason. Although on the individual player-level it’s possible to make the argument that the Crows have a bigger crop of players that are performing at a higher level this season, it is the champion team that generally emerges against a team of champions.
For the Crows stars to shine, they’ll need every player to do their part. Specifically, they’ll need every player 100 per cent committed to nullifying the Hawks’ marking and efficiency. If they can’t pressure the Hawks enough to force these numbers down, all the clearances and hitouts they win are destined to go to waste.
The Hawks love to take a mark more than anyone, and they do it more than anyone. They were the only team to crack the ton average for marks in 2015, off the back of their league-leading disposal efficiency of 75.7 per cent. The Crows on the other hand took just 90.7 marks per game, which is actually a decent effort considering only the Gold Coast Suns had a worse disposal efficiency than them in 2015.
This is the area that West Coast effectively grounded the Hawks on Friday; the Hawks were pressured relentlessly, held to just 64 marks and a disposal efficiency of 67.8 per cent – the lowest of the eight teams that made finals. For the Crows to win they’ll need to be more effective, take more marks, and simultaneously negate the Hawks’ ability to control play and take 100 marks.
Unlike in years gone by, this is far from an impossible mission, and the Crows should approach the match with the belief they can successfully mimic those who’ve managed it.
In Round 18, Richmond did it, holding the Hawks to just 64 marks for the game, winning by 18 points. In Round 8, Sydney held them to 84 and snuck home by four points. In Round 2, Essendon also managed to hold the Hawks to 84 (while taking 114 themselves!) to snag an unlikely victory. Essendon also managed to pressure the Hawks into sub-par disposal efficiency, while kicking their way to a lofty 77.7 per cent themselves.
C’mon, if the Dons can do it, the Crows are capable!
In the Crows’ favour is the fact that they managed to hold the Hawks to a respectable number of marks (80) and pressure their efficiency (71.8 per cent) in their only 2015 meeting. They’ll need to push those numbers down further on Friday, but it’s a decent benchmark to work from.
Further in the Crows’ favour is the fact they managed to do it against the Eagles in Round 22, cutting their regular efficiency down to 66.2 per cent and holding them to just 75 marks, while taking 108 of their own with an efficiency of 73.6 per cent. They’ve done it against quality opposition this year; there should be little doubt they can manage it again.
Where the Crows may be worried is in their simple lack of experience. A string of players ran out for their first final last week, and backing that up with a bigger and better performance is perhaps too much to ask. Especially when you’re facing a team that is, we assume, simply too good to play that badly two weeks in a row.
But if the Crows turn up, their best can be better than the Hawks’ best, and they’ll have the perfect chance to prove they have the makings of a champion team.
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