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We’re told that defence wins premierships. But just how many teams in the hunt for football’s greatest prize subscribe to that theory? And just how accurate is it?
>> EXPERT TIPS AND PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 2
Fremantle are the pin-up child for those who deify defence. Ross Lyon’s team have been the stingiest in the competition in 2015, followed closely by West Coast, Sydney and Hawthorn in that order.
Fremantle, then, have one up on their remaining finals rivals, particularly the Kangaroos and Adelaide, both of whom have conceded three to four goals more than the Dockers on average this season.
On the face of it, Fremantle appears to have an edge over the five other remaining sides because, as we’ve been told, defence is what wins premierships.
But upon closer inspection, the mythology surrounding stingy defences may be just that: a myth.
In fact, in the past five years, only one side – Sydney in 2012 – won the premiership on the back of conceding the least points throughout the season.
Hawthorn, for example, had the fifth best defence in both 2013 and 2014 when they were back-to-back premiers. And when Ross Lyons’ St Kilda lost to Collingwood in 2010, they did so with the best defence of the year.
Defence, therefore, is not the only ingredient to success, although it arguably remains integral to some kind of success.
So how much should this trouble the Purple Haze?
Ostensibly, a win is a win, and all Fremantle need to do to win is score more points than their opposition.
For the majority of the year, this has been achievable because Fremantle have denied their opposition first use of the ball, tackled relentlessly and starved rivals of genuine goalscoring chances.
Still, Fremantle’s detractors – a number which seems to be growing by the day – argue that their game style will be exposed against high-scoring teams.
They argue that against the Swans, Fremantle were lucky to win. If it weren’t for the Swans’ inaccuracy and lack of personnel, the nine-point win may have read very differently.
Indeed, despite Fremantle leading the Swans by more than three goals at quarter time, their lack of firepower up front meant that the Swans never felt completely out of the game. Or so they say.
Regardless, this does not bode well for Fremantle given that their next opponent – the winner of the Hawthorn and Adelaide semi-final – average more than 100 points per game.
In the second half of the season, Fremantle have only managed that feat once – against Melbourne in Round 22 at Domain Stadium. Indeed, they rank a lowly 12th for points scored on average in 2015.
Yet, Fremantle still finished a game clear of the pack, even after resting more than half their list in the final home-and-away game, and all but conceding a loss to Port Adelaide. That surely must count for something.
Ross Lyon’s men are well drilled, disciplined and match hardened. What’s more, they know their game style can stand up in finals and indeed get them to the grand final, having been there only two years ago in 2013.
So why are we still doubting them? Surely any team with Nat Fyfe in it has more than a hope of winning a premiership? Especially when you add names such as Aaron Sandilands, Walters, Matthew Pavlich, Hayden Ballantyne and David Mundy to the equation.
But maybe it’s not them. Maybe it’s us.
Maybe we can’t see Fremantle mustering the goal kicking ability to beat the remaining sides in the race to the grand final. Maybe we can’t envisage Fremantle matching it with Adelaide if Taylor Walker and Eddie Betts decide to put on a clinic.
Maybe we can’t see Pavlich and Ballantyne in a shoot-out with the likes of Jarryd Roughead and Luke Breust if the Hawks are their opponents in two weeks’ time.
And if the stars align for a Western Australia derby on grand final day, maybe we just can’t imagine how the Dockers will quell the likes of Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras and kick a winning score themselves.
Lyon is still chasing his first premiership with a formula that didn’t work in 2010, and has many believing it still won’t work now.
The question remains: is it them or us?
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