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Michael Cheika has announced his team to face Fiji on early Thursday morning, and the only concern is Bernard Foley at 10 and Matt Giteau at 12.
The theme of the Rugby World Cup thus far has been the underdogs putting pressure on the more established rugby nations.
Fiji put pressure on England but didn’t come away with the win on account of too much kicking. However, when the Fijians did have ball-in-hand they ran straight and hard and made sure the English woke up bruised the following day.
Georgia, the underdog against Tonga, put on a big physical display and defended ferociously. Led by their mountain of a captain Mamuka Gorgodze, whose nickname is ‘Gorgodzilla’, the Georgians made the Tongans fight for every inch and in the end held on for a terrific victory.
Argentina had the All Blacks on the back foot for the first hour of their clash. Los Pumas employed an extremely successful rush defence where each of the All Blacks’ 10, 12 and 13 were heavily marked. Space was at a premium and in short supply. The All Blacks only really got going when Sonny Bill Williams was brought on at inside centre and started getting over the gain line. Superior fitness got the All Blacks home but Los Pumas gave Steve Hansen’s men a big fright.
The Brave Blossoms display of tenacity has meant that their victory may go down as one of the greatest upsets in the history of sport, let alone rugby. A South African journalist has written that the Japanese played like “Wolverines on Red Bull” which perfectly surmises something of a general tactic being used by the underdogs to great effect. Swarm. Shut down. Do not relent. If the favourites cannot get momentum then the underdog can stay in touch and possibly force a boilover.
Therein lies the pattern.
The Wallabies can expect straight hard running in attack and bruising tackles in defence. If Fiji coach John McKee has been watching the other matches at the Cup so far then expect to see a tight rush defence putting as much pressure on Foley and Giteau as possible. Both are solid defenders but after 40 mins of being run over by a pair of freight trains the holes may start to appear.
Genia may be the answer.
If the Fijians are going to rush up and get in Foley’s face then they are not going to be as careful around the fringes of the ruck. Where Nick Phipps is a great distributor of the ball, he is unlikely to snipe. All Genia has to do is run from the base of the ruck once or twice and any rush defence the Fijians intend on using will have to set and lock the fringes of the ruck down.
Also, Foley and Giteau are both great passers of the ball and Tevita Kuridrani is a direct-running centre cut from brutally hard stone. Rob Horne is a good choice to mark Nemano Nadolo but I expect the Fijian man-mountain, at 6 foot 5 inches and 126 kgs, will get over the line on at least one occasion anyway. Adam Ashley-Cooper is ever-reliable on the right wing and Izzy Folau is at fullback and was probably the first name on the team sheet.
In attack the Wallabies are probably going to have to move the ball wide at speed when given the opportunity to do so. Picking Michael Hooper and Dave Pocock means that there shouldn’t be any issues with support players making it to the breakdown.
In defence Horne may even defend at 12 but that would leave Nadolo being marked by Giteau which might be a tad unfair.
If it starts to go awry and the Fijians are making too much headway through the centres I wouldn’t be surprised if we see Matt Toomua around the 50-minute mark. The Brumbies’ stalwart is one of the best defensive inside backs in the world and if not for the introduction of ‘Giteau’s law’ it would probably have been him starting at 12.
Regardless of the result Michael Cheika has done a fantastic job to get the Wallabies to the position where they are. It should be a cracking game.
As the Fox Sports ad goes, “never underestimate a Wallaby”.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.