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The Sydney Roosters may have finished the 2015 NRL season as minor premiers, but they have a tough trip on Friday night when they face the Brisbane Broncos at Suncorp for a place in the 2015 NRL grand final.
Let’s take a look at what the stats tell us about this match.
7:45pm, Friday 25 September, Suncorp Stadium
The History
Overall: This will be the 42nd meeting of these two sides. The Broncos have won 25, the Roosters 16.
Finals: These two teams have met in finals games four times. Here’s a curious stat: on three of those four occasions (1998, 2000 and 2002) the winner has gone on to be the Premier (the 2000 game was the Grand Final).
The last time these two sides met in a final was in 2008 with the Broncos running out 24-16 winners at the SFS. The Broncos have four players still in their side from that game eight seasons ago: Justin Hodges, Darius Boyd, Sam Thaiday and Luke Parker. The Roosters have just one: Mitchell Pearce.
This is the first final between the two at this venue.
The last ten: The last ten between these sides have been split five a piece. However, the Roosters have won three of the last four.
At this Venue: This will be the ninth encounter between the sides at Lang Park/Suncorp Stadium. So far each side has won four each. The Broncos won in Round 6 this year 22-18.
Referees: Gerard Sutton has officiated in three clashes between these sides. The Roosters have won two. Sutton was the ref in both encounters between these sides this season and the results have been split.
Gavin Badger has officiated in two games between these sides, with each side winning one. He joined Sutton to officiate the Round 24 game at the SFS this season that the Roosters won 12-10.
Team Stats – average per game 2015
Both these sides have very good defence. In points conceded the Roosters rank first, the Broncos third.
Both feature a defensive stat that on the surface looks bad, but isn’t really.
The Broncos concede on average the second most metres of any side in 2015. Bad news right? Wrong. Wayne Bennett’s men do not rush up in defence. They value the structure of their defensive line over speed and it has paid dividends.
They have conceded the second least missed tackles of any side in 2015, as well as being third best for line breaks and tries conceded.
Their problem here is that the Roosters are the best side when it comes to not conceding line breaks and tries. They are, however, the very worst side for conceding errors.
They make an average of nearly 12 per match. The good news for the Roosters fans is that the great majority of these are made in the act of trying to break the line or score a try. Their errors are simply an indication of how audacious the Chooks are in attack.
Player Stats
As usual, opposing halves Ben Hunt and James Maloney will have their dodgy defence tested. You can also put money on Jim Maloney giving away a penalty or two – just don’t bet on any sin binnings unless you get odds over 100-1.
Anthony Milford is the most error prone player in the NRL this year. If the Broncos are to win, they’ll want a night of good handling from the Raiders junior.
Team Stats – average per game 2015
The Broncos can be very good with ball in hand but the Roosters have set the benchmark for attack in 2015. Their power running in the backs and the forwards is relentless.
Last week they made eight line breaks, 54 tackle breaks and scored six tries.
The Roosters attack is running into devastating form. And now Mitchell Pearce is back. Two weeks ago the Broncos managed just two tries at home against the far leakier defence of the Cowboys. If they are to beat the Roosters they’ll need at least four.
Player Stats
The Broncos chances of success in this match will lie heavily with the second oldest and the youngest players in their team. Justin Hodges and Anthony Milford must be at their attacking best in this match if their team is to breach the Roosters defence.
Further, Ben Hunt can’t be overawed by the occasion either. James Maloney showed last week that he is up to the challenge this finals series, and Mitchell Pearce has now returned to offer support.
Further, they have three of the games very best running footballers in Blake Ferguson, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck. Throw in Daniel Tupou and Shaun Kenny-Dowall and the Broncos are right up against it.
When they score and when they concede
The Broncos have been remarkably even with their scoring this season, Averaging around 25 per cent of their points in each of the 20 minute periods. The Roosters tend to favour scoring in the second 20 minute periods of each half.
This chart points to danger for the Broncos from the 20th minute through to the end of the first half. The Broncos concede a third of their points during that period and that is one of the Roosters most prolific scoring periods.
The Danger Men
As stated above, the Roosters back line is so dangerous it is ridiculous. RTS is arguably the most dangerous, but every single one is capable of leading the way.
For the Broncos Anthony Milford needs to be at his elusive best. If he can cause some havoc early then the Roosters might be put off their game in front of a very hostile Suncorp crowd. Darius Boyd must also play a big game.
Who is going to win and why
The Storm managed to choke the Roosters game but still only managed a two point win based on some lucky tries.
While the Broncos have been great this year I just can’t see them beating the Roosters Juggernaut, even on home soil. Hunt and Milford will really benefit from this experience but their season ends here.
Prediction: Roosters 13+