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Michael Cheika would be fairly buoyant right now.
Not only did his side get through the Uruguay game reasonably unscathed besides the injury to Will Skelton, but enough questions were answered over the weekend to give absolute clarity around what needs to happen for Australia to get through the Pool A on top.
This enlightenment would be intoxicating for the coach.
What did Cheika learn from the Uruguay match?
In short nothing new, however all Cheika’s previous assessments were confirmed.
The team that was picked for Fiji, still stands up as the number one side. Of all the players, only Sean McMahon and Ben McCalman had excellent games. Decent games were had by Nick Phipps, Scott Sio, Matt Toomua and Kurtley Beale, however I would be surprised if there were any major changes.
There will be a forced change with Skelton injured, but that is all.
What did Cheika learn from Wales versus England?
Bucket loads. The very first learning is that both England and Wales play traditional Northern Hemisphere rugby. To simplify things for Cheika, the styles and formations are almost identical. Both teams rely on territory and pressure in the opponents half to force penalties that their sharp shooters can easily convert into a succession of three pointers.
This is achieved via some simple but effective team strengths and tactics:
1. Excellent tactical kicking game into the corners.
2. Excellent kick chasing lines
3. Good lineouts and pressure to pin opponents deep in their own territory
4. Abrasive, physical and hungry forward pack forcing errors and penalties
5. Good scrummaging, resulting in straight arms. In the English case illegal, but effective.
6. Goal kickers that do not miss within 50m of the sticks.
Secondly, England are not the rugby power that pundits claim they are. New Zealand, South Africa, Ireland and France are all far more intimidating prospects and more likely to lift the cup based on England’s two pool games.
With all due respect to Wales, who played a great game to the best of their abilities, England have not looked terribly sharp or dangerous in attack. They have a big pack and Ben Youngs is in fine form, however they appear one dimensional.
Thirdly, games in the cup are being decided at scrums, the tackle and the maul. These three facets are responsible for the vast majorities of the penalties and the referees have clearly been given strict instructions on how to police each of these areas.
The tackle is most surprising. Any contact with the neck or head, any lifting or any lack of arms can easily result in 14-man rugby. It is also being made very clear that bridging or slowing the play is not acceptable.
The maul and scrum are also being very heavily weighted to the dominant side with the lions share of these contests ending in straight arms. These areas of the game generate points.
What is the game plan?
Here is my take on the blueprint to beat the English and then in turn the Welsh.
Discipline
Penalties will sink the Wallabies as the sharp shooters will kick their teams home if given the opportunity. Tackling technique is paramount. No lifting, no judo throws, no high contact, no cannon balling. Accurate aggressive contact within the scope of the laws only.
No throwing handbags or silly play. The offside line is critical. Diligence needed. No bridging in the tackle. The players must support their own weight
No collapsing mauls or silly infringements close to the tryline.
Scrums
Sekope Kepu needs a big game. He is going to be targeting by the English and needs to stay square.
The pack needs to stay cohesive. The second row, flankers and number 8 need to be tight.
If I was Cheika, I would also be having a prior word to the refereeing team regarding the English team’s illegal tactics of boring in from the loosehead.
Intent and accuracy at the breakdown
Line speed in defence. No lying on the ball or preventing the tackled player from presenting the ball. Cleanouts need to be accurate. No missing the player and rolling over the ruck, effectively going off your feet. No bridging and a clear release is needed. Physicality is important but accuracy is critical.
Getting out of the danger zone
The English and Welsh will kick to the corners, aiming to put pressure on the Wallaby back three and the lineout. With Horne and Adam Ashley-Cooper in the front line defence, Israel Folau has free reign to run.
The pressure is on Matt Giteau and Bernard Foley to sweep well and make the correct decisions in defence and return, whether that be kick, run or pass. The high box kick will also be used in many occasions. The back three need to come from depth, with intent and win the contest. There is an argument for Matt Toomua to start for Foley, leaving Adam Ashley-Cooper sweeping right and handling the high ball, however the trade off is losing Foley’s goal kicking.
I would keep Foley at 10 for this reason.
The lineout is also critical. We need to win our ball within our territory and exit cleanly. The forward runners/long passing and open field kick arrangement needs to accurate and clinical.
Winning the collision
It is no secret that Cheika is big on winning collisions. Against the big packs, this is all the more important. The Wallabies failed to win the collisions against the Fijians, this cannot happen against the English.
To win collisions against the organised English, I would take the attack into the 15 metre channels with forward runners and support. Forward support, inside support and first receiver wrapping. If this is contained, I would then try the pick and go or inside balls. The key to this is winning contact and getting over the advantage line.
The team failed to do this effectively and it cramped Foley. The senior forwards led by Stephen Moore, Dave Pocock and Michael Hooper need to lead this and read the occasion. Intent and accuracy.
Goal kicking
Sharp shooters win matches. Full stop. 80 per cent is an absolute minimum. Our best goal kicker is Foley, followed by Giteau.
The path to success is clear, now the coach and team have the week in preparation to make it happen.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.