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Based purely on their four years under coach Ross Lyon, the Fremantle Dockers appear to be an elite AFL team. They have won 63 games and drawn one of their 88 games, finishing in the top four three times.
But look closer and it tells a far different tale – they have won just four of nine finals in that time, with a lack of imagination, an inconsistent forward line and lack of skilled players across the field costing them when the standard and the stakes increase.
The Dockers have scored just 78 points in finals under Lyon, with poor goal-kicking and a lack of forward potency proving to be a real issue against the best teams.
Their defensive mindset is very successful during the regular season, where they suffocate mediocre teams and rarely lose to any teams below them on the ladder. Come finals, however, their inability to create scoreboard pressure has become a disturbing trend.
Their preliminary finals loss against Hawthorn has seen heavy scrutiny of the umpiring, but the reality is that Fremantle were less efficient with the ball, turned it over more often and lost the tackle count. If you add the fact they were playing the greatest team of the modern era, and they let the Hawks dictate the tempo by taking 141 uncontested marks (the second greatest number conceded in finals history), then you see why they lost.
The umpires didn’t let the league’s most skilled team kick the ball to themselves with minimal pressure for most of the night, although a number on social media stuck to their guns in blaming Jeff Dalgleish, Matt Stevic and Brett Rosebury.
This weekends umpiring has been farcical. Cost both Fremantle and North Melbourne on consecutive nights #AFLFreoHawks #AFLEaglesNorth
— Peter (@waite_01) September 27, 2015
@lukefmarmo @rohan_connolly The poor umpiring definitely affected the result and may even have changed it. #AFLFreoHawks
— Bruce Guthrie (@brucerguthrie) September 26, 2015
Fremantle’s list profile and a couple of key retirements may see 2016 as a watershed year where this club draws a line in the sand in their quest to break a 20-year premiership drought.
Matthew Pavlich and Luke McPharlin are the club’s greatest player and best ever defender respectively, both epitomising what a champion is in every way. However their bodies have given up on them, and retiring seems to be the only choice (McPharlin has made his decision already and speculation is that Pavlich will follow suit).
Fellow veterans David Mundy, Aaron Sandilands and Michael Johnson still have plenty to offer and figure to play key roles in 2016 at the very least, but cannot be expected to improve.
Reviewing the Dockers’ list with a focus on the 100-plus-game players allows players to be placed into two very clear groups (excluding one guy we will talk about later); players who are still effective or borderline stars (Stephen Hill, Garrick Ibbotson and Michael Barlow) and players who are either past their prime or simply not up to elite AFL standards (Hayden Ballantyne, Ryan Crowley, Paul Duffield, Nick Suban, Matt DeBoer, Zac Dawson, Chris Mayne and Danyle Pearce).
Barlow and Ibbotson remain certain first-choice players who fill a key role and do it with aplomb, while Hill is a budding star who should take another giant leap as a 150-game player.
The second list of players contains names who have had their time in the sun, or those who feast on weaker opponents but struggle when the heat goes on. Danyle Pearce is a prime example of such a player, a high-profile recruit who loves the open spaces during the season.
Come finals, however, and Pearce struggles; he is yet to impose himself on a Fremantle final and is invisible when the heat goes on and contested football takes centre stage. Mayne was one the league’s more effective mid-sized forwards just two years ago as Fremantle charged into the grand final, but his goal-kicking and intensity have slipped to the extent that his spot in the side is sure to be questioned.
Dawson and Suban offer something to the Dockers, but what exactly that is remains a mystery to most fans and football watchers. Ballantyne remains a serial pest, but his days as an effective small forward are long gone while DeBoer provides hardness but his disposal deficiencies are problematic.
Lyon’s continued faith in some of these players while the likes of Hayden Crozier, Max Duffy, Alex Pearce, Connor Blakely and Lachie Weller have had only fleeting opportunities must be part of his bigger plan, or is just a refusal to divert from a defensive mindset.
Pearce and Duffy have both had an impact when they have played, and both offer an attacking flair and positively that many of their teammates lack. Add fellow youngsters Brady Grey and Ethan Hughes to a list of players lining up for a regular minutes in a team screaming out for a more positive game style.
Lyon’s willingness to get these players into the line-up next season will indicate his intentions, and whether he accepts the results of the last few seasons as being good enough.
Of the younger players who are part of the preferred team, Lachie Neale developed impressively this season despite his disposal effectiveness being sub-par and Michael Walters continues to develop as a quality small forward. Fellow youngsters Cam Sutcliffe and Tom Sheridan have had their moments, but their finals performances left much to be desired.
As Pavlich ponders his future, Fremantle must turn to Nat Fyfe as their captain. In the first half of this season, Fyfe was unquestionably the best player in the competition. Injury derailed him in the second half of the season and to watch him hobble around on Friday night raised questions about why he would play when so severely hampered and restricted. (It has just been confirmed he fractured his fibula early in the game. We will forgive him for struggling to get around the ground.)
Should Fyfe improve his kicking he may well become a champion of the game as he dominates at the contest and has the tools to become and effective resting forward. At a time in which change is needed, the Dockers must appoint him as captain and hope he can put the many injury concerns behind him and lead the side into 2016.
In Fyfe, Mundy, Walters, Neale, Alex Pearce and Hill the Dockers have the core of a very strong young squad, but they must introduce players with skill and scoring ability rather than field a team stacked with honest toilers who continually fall short come finals time.
For all the hype about Lyon as a coach and his ability to strangulate the opposition, Fremantle have failed to do this against the best teams under his watch. His insistence on selecting strong defensive players to fill a majority of the team makes for a good ladder position, but fails time and time again come September.
Hawthorn and West Coast (and to a lesser extent Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs) have proven that while a good defence is handy, there is no substitute for attacking, bold football.
Their recent trade acquisitions of Scott Gumbleton and Colin Sylvia have been an unmitigated disaster for the Dockers and may well have them hesitant on that front. While we know how Lyon has historically coached and the players he likes to pick, his coaching legacy and the chance of short-term success at Fremantle may well rest on his ability to adjust and adapt a more positive game style.
To make that happen, the first choice 22 must change (either through selection, free agency or trading) and change fast because there are simply too many middle-of-the-road players on the current list incapable of being successful modern-day finals footballers.
Bank on Fremantle being competitive for the top four again in 2016, whether they are a threat to win the flag will depend on their ability to attack and handle the step up in standard.
Exposed form from their players and coach would make them a very unlikely contender.
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