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France will face Ireland in the deciding game of Pool D, on Sunday at 4.45.
Both teams go into the match undefeated, having won their previous three pool games. The teams have equal points so far, with 14 apiece, but Ireland tops the pool due to a higher points difference (84-72).
Ireland struggled, though, in their most recent match against Italy last Sunday, eventually winning the game, 16-9. It was a poor performance by Ireland, with little imagination and proactivity.
They hardly contested for the ball and let the Italians run at them. Their performance has fuelled speculation that Ireland are keeping a lot in reserve in order to surprise France.
Ireland have never lost to France under Joe Schmidt, while France have never beaten Ireland under Phillippe Saint-Andre. The last four games between the countries saw two draws and two Irish wins.
Saint-Andre has been claiming that France’s poor results in recent seasons is due to the French clubs having a monopoly on the players during the Six Nations. That problem won’t have arisen during the World Cup, so we’ll now see how good a coach he really is.
France are the most unpredictable team in the sport. In the 2011 World Cup, they managed to lose to Tonga in the pool stages and then make it all the way to the final, which they could have easily won. They did this all while imploding behind the scenes (the players had already lost faith with Marc Lievermont).
Ireland have had a great run under Joe Schmidt, having won the last two Six Nations’ titles, but the World Cup will be the real Test for the Ireland coach.
Schmidt has picked a very strong team, barring two positions. He’s picked Keith Earls in the centre, where he’ll be faced by Mathieu Bastareaud. This is David versus Goliath territory! It may have made more sense to put Tommy Bowe at 13 and move Earls onto the wing. Bowe is much bigger than Earls and Earls’ pace is more effective on the wing than in the centre.
In the pack, Iain Henderson is replaced by Devin Toner. Toner adds more height in the line-out, but Henderson has been Ireland’s best ball-carrier so far this tournament. Henderson should provide some impact on the bench.
Ireland will also be looking for a better game from Jamie Heaslip and Sean O’Brien. They were outdone by their Italian counterparts last Sunday. They’ll be up against Thierry Dusautoir, who is one of the best forwards in the game and has been revitalised.
The key battle is at out-half, with Jonny Sexton against Freddie Michalak. There was a time when Michalak was in the running to be the best out-half in the world. That time never really came to pass, but his recent play for Toulon has brought back in to the French fold and he’s been terrific so far in this tournament.
He’ll meet his biggest challenge in Sexton, though, who is one of the best out-halfs in the world.
It’s a match that’s really too close to call. I would give the slight nod to Ireland but that may be just personal bias. It should be a fantastic game. We’ve had more than our fair share of great games this tournament. It’s been a fantastic competition and we’re not even at the knock-out stages yet!
Both teams will certainly be up for this match. Whoever wins will have an easier route to the final. The winner will face Argentina in the quarter-finals, while the loser will have the tougher task of facing New Zealand.
That’s not to say that Argentina will be push-overs. Far from it, but New Zealand are just a tougher team, though they have yet to really impress in the tournament so far.
France: 15 Scott Spedding, 14 Noa Nakaitaci, 13 Mathieu Bastareaud, 12 Wesley Fofana, 11 Brice Dulin, 10 Frédéric Michalak, 9 Sébastien Tillous-Borde, 8 Louis Picamoles, 7 Damien Chouly, 6 Thierry Dusautoir (c), 5 Yoann Maestri, 4 Pascal Papé, 3 Rabah Slimani, 2 Guilhem Guirado, 1 Eddy Ben Arous
Replacements: 16 Benjamin Kayser, 17 Vincent Debaty, 18 Nicolas Mas, 19 Alexandre Flanquart, 20 Bernard le Roux, 21 Morgan Parra, 22 Rémi Talès, 23 Alexandre DumoulinIreland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Keith Earls, 12 Robbie Henshaw, 11 Dave Kearney, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O’Brien, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Paul O’Connell (c), 4 Devin Toner, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy
Replacements: 16 Richardt Strauss, 17 Jack McGrath, 18 Nathan White, 19 Iain Henderson, 20 Chris Henry, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ian Madigan, 23 Luke Fitzgerald
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.