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Wales outranks most teams in the world. The Dragons are rated better than South Africa and Japan by World Rugby.
But the last time Wales played Japan, they were beaten, and beaten comprehensively. As we all know, the Springboks were also embarrassed by the Brave Blossoms.
Quarterfinal 1 shapes up as the battle of the beaten. A survivor of the pool of death against a survivor of the pool of shame.
Under Kiwi coaching genius Warren Gatland, the Welsh have mastered the art of keeping even a great team like the Wallabies pinned on their tryline, grasping for miracles.
Has South Africa ever kept Australia trapped on their own line for seven minutes? I doubt it.
This ‘Bok team is too young to beat Wales. If you add Lood de Jager’s age to Eben Etzebeth’s age and then add Pieter-Steph du Toit’s age, you get the approximate average IQ of a seal (68). I don’t know what that means, but it can’t be good.
The apprentice Frans Malherbe is only 24; a tighthead cannot learn his craft until he is 28. Outside centre Jesse Kriel is just 21, and his replacement Jan Serfontein is 23. An understanding of space and how to tackle James Hook and the elusive Jamie Roberts takes years to perfect.
South Africa has been rocked by injury: they’ve lost their first and second choice captains, or about 250 caps. Yes, Wales has lost a few players, but none of them were captains.
Skipper Sam Warburton is a clean-living, honest, super-fit, cerebral leader. The Boks’ captain, Fourie du Preez, seldom talks at all. Advantage Wales.
Schalk Burger has worked his way into second playmaker status for the Springboks; a role that has been harshly criticised on The Roar, because of Burger’s lack of pace, passing skills, power, and vision.
Contrast that with Wales’ brilliant playmaker Roberts, who passes just as often as Australia’s brilliant Adam Ashley-Cooper (but every single pass usually leads to a try), and you see how the Boks are up against huge odds.
The biggest problem for South Africa is they are South African, which means they definitely are unskilled. Their tries are lucky, their kicking is lucky, their wins are lucky, and their losses are proof of the above.
Pre-tournament, the talk was about the Bok wingers being past their prime. Nine tries later, JP Pietersen and Bryan Habana are definitely on the downhill trajectory. Wales’ big wings Alex Cuthbert and George North will be looking forward to running past these ageing myths.
But these are just two teams who lost to Japan the last time they played; and having lost once already, have no hope of winning the World Cup.
Can the Southern underdogs find a way to narrowly beat the poor Welsh? Will the rankings be undone?
What can Bismarck du Plessis, Duane Vermeulen, and Etzebeth do to match the wondrous physicality of the Boyos? Will Kriel be found out for his lack of speed against Hook? Can Willie le Roux do anything right, against the formidable Kiwi fullback?
Has Gatland been holding back his red zone plans? He has the higher ranked team of the two quarter-finalists who last lost to Japan. He should feel good. Won’t marksman Dan Biggar have the measure of 21-year old Handre Pollard?
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.