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For the third time in their history Argentina and Australia will meet in a World Cup. On the other two occasions they met in pool games in 1991 and 2003, which were won easily by Australia.
However, the Argentina side of two decades ago and the one with Rugby Championship experience under their belt is a different beast altogether.
Historically, they have played 24 times and Australia have won 18, lost five and drawn once. Since 2000 the record is even worse reading for Argentina being 10-1 in Australia’s favour. The sole win for Argentina being a four-point home victory in 2014.
On the injury front Australia will be missing Scott Sio but they regain two of their key players in David Pocock and Israel Folau. Argentina have injury doubts over their skipper Agustin Creevy and they are missing Mariano Galarza who was rubbed out for the tournament for raking Brodie Retallick’s eyes. This means both teams will be close to full strength with only a couple of regular starters missing.
Form wise Argentina started with a 10-point loss to the All Blacks where they were right in the contest until the final 20 minutes. They then went on to dominate their remaining pool games with impressive victories before cutting loose on Ireland in the quarter-final 43-20 with their backline starring.
Australia had to negotiate their way through the Pool of Death. Routine wins over Fiji and Uruguay started their campaign before a dominant win over England and a hard-fought victory over Wales to go through pool play unbeaten. In what many saw as the easiest quarter-final game they were expected to breeze past Scotland, but found themselves in an 80-minute scrap The final result was decided by a controversial penalty in their favour to escape 35-34.
On form this is a really hard game to tip. Australia were poor against Scotland and escaped with a very lucky win. This was their third tough contest in a row, having bruising encounters with England and Wales beforehand.
Argentina, on the other hand, played their tough pool game in week one and had three much easier pool games and a much easier time in the quarter-final. How much those three tough games would have taken out of Australia could be crucial to their chances. Argentina, with a friendlier run, should be less banged up.
Argentina have the form in their favour and their players should be in better shape after an easier run to the semi-final. Australia have a class edge, great recent record against the Pumas and their 16th man in referee Wayne Barnes, who is far and away the referee they have the best winning percentage with.
One of the keys to this game will be the scrum. While Australia have improved a lot this season, the benchmark in world rugby is Argentina and they do generate a lot of penalties and points off it. They will definitely look to get the ascendancy there.
Australia, on the other hand, will look to use their backline where they have an edge. The big x-factor here will be how Argentina use their backline. Too often against Australia and New Zealand do they revert to their 10-man game, but the explosive form of their backs against Ireland has shown a new weapon in their arsenal.
For Argentina to win they need to get scrum dominance and keep their discipline in place and avoid yellow cards. Their kicker Nicolas Sanchez is almost faultless from anywhere 40 metres out. For Australia they will need Pocock and Michael Hooper at their best, poaching as many balls as they can, and their backline to step up. Bernard Foley will need to be better at the kicking tee as well.
My prediction for this contest is Argentina to get out to an early lead and Australia to claw them back and get over them in the last 20 minutes. There won’t be much in the game and Australia will get up by five points.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.