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This superb Rugby World Cup has the final it deserves, between the two best sides in the tournament, New Zealand and Australia.
World Cup semi-finals are unique, emotionally wrenching experiences. A case of ‘so near yet so far’ for the losers, and almost unbearable expectation for the winners, like a climber about to conquer Everest who hopefully peers skyward only to find the summit is still an excruciating few hours climb away.
Post-mortems are notably shorter, as attention quickly shifts to the build-up for the final. After the unseemly public flogging of Craig Joubert last week, that can only be a good thing.
While both semi-finals were always in the balance, on reflection both results are easily understood.
In what may be dubbed the ‘battle of the blood noses’, the Wallabies’ intensity and execution proved far more suited to the occasion than the Pumas, a direct outcome of last week’s contrasting quarter-finals.
The Wallabies needed to lift their speed and aggression in defence and duly started with a purpose that the Pumas couldn’t accommodate.
Argentina meanwhile were seemingly still playing Ireland, but without the time and space afforded to them in that match. Too often they were caught out bumbling behind the advantage line, their ambition seemingly ahead of their capability, when a more realistic premise would have been to play more field position.
Similarly, the speed of the Wallabies recycle and passing accuracy left them exposed on the outside, the early tries providing a critical buffer for when the inevitable fightback came.
The key difference however was in the loose forwards, with David Pocock, Michael Hooper and Scott Fardy monumental. Their tackling and breakdown pressure never relented, and ultimately proved the difference.
It isn’t too much of a stretch to suggest that the pivotal moment of this match came two days earlier, with confirmation of Pocock’s selection. As much as this Wallabies side has matured, there is a yawning difference between ‘Pocock in’ and ‘Pocock out’.
And as if there was any credibility left, the maligned ‘man of the match’ selection took another hit, by ignoring the claims of Pocock, clearly the dominant player on the field.
The structure went from the game in the second half, and with it the Wallabies looked more vulnerable, but although the Pumas created numerous half chances, the quality of the scrambling defence was admirable.
Argentina were also unable to cash in on their scrum dominance, the final 15 minutes notable for the lack of scrums. Ultimately it was a nice pass from replacement half-back Nick Phipps which put Drew Mitchell away on the left, to expertly set up the winning score.
All Blacks coach Steve Hansen’s public declaration that he “couldn’t care less” who his side plays in the final is another sign that this tournament has, for them, always been about the All Blacks being masters of their own destiny.
Such a strategy borders on arrogance, but only to the point where it is understandable that a side that loses so infrequently needs to set its own standards to play to, to ensure continuation of high-level performance.
Thus we see different game plans rolled out from week to week, adjusted for each specific opponent, location and occasion. Arch rival South Africa in a cut-throat, elimination semi-final is as tough a test as there is, yet, despite cutting it fine on the scoreboard, the All Blacks got their tactics and execution right.
After early success getting Jerome Kaino free on the touchline, the All Blacks were confused by South Africa borrowing Muhammad Ali’s ‘rope-a-dope’ defence, where they might reasonably have expected a typical high-octane midfield rush.
While the Springbok defensive line may have been surprisingly passive, the intensity and technique in the tackle certainly wasn’t, and the All Blacks spent the rest of the first half bashing their heads up against a brick wall.
Consensus has it that, Wayne Barnes aside, the All Blacks signed their own death warrant at the 2007 World Cup, by either refusing to, or being incapable of, adjusting their tactics, to counter an immovable defensive wall.
This time around, Richie McCaw and Dan Carter showed that age and old legs are no impediment to on-field leadership and rugby nous, and with the London weather finally reverting to type, plan B was enacted, the ball being kept ahead of them, and trust in their own defense called upon.
There were quibbles and frustrations about the amount of attacking ball kicked away which, among other things, denied opportunities to build pressure to force penalties. Indeed, it was astonishing that despite dominating territory by a massive 2 to 1 (67 per cent to 33 per cent), the All Blacks received only two kickable penalties.
This is no reflection on referee Jerome Garces, who was calm and largely accurate.
The trade-off for the All Blacks was that South Africa was pinned in it’s own quarter for long periods, for the most part seemingly without sufficient options or inspiration to exit effectively.
The irony of this match was that South Africa, via Handre Pollard taking full advantage of all kicking opportunities, came within one more kick of winning. Yet the real margin felt greater than what the scoreboard showed.
South Africa were strangled, or to use the new terminology, “neck-rolled”, by a combination of their own lack of adventure, and the All Blacks’ composure and efficiency under pressure.
Two points is a heartbreakingly narrow losing margin, but in this case, it is also a mirage. In a tight match of few opportunities in open field, the All Blacks found a way to score two tries. South Africa managed not even a sniff of one.
That’s 14 points right there, requiring five penalty goals to beat it. While the All Blacks generously provided opportunities for this, without South Africa threatening the try-line, or worse, without seemingly having any plan to do so, then the final outcome was no surprise.
In tennis the net is lower in the middle than it is on the sides, making it a safer play to stay in this channel. Doing so might keep you in the game for longer, but to win, at some point you have to step out of the central zone and make some plays down the line.
High kicking for Bryan Habana to chase is a useful tactic, but only if it is part of a suite, not the primary method of attack. And when Ben Smith not only matched this, but raised it in the second half, then the Springbok effort was shown up for what it really was – a rally back and forth up the middle.
Heyneke Meyer’s side has done well to regroup after a messy year and an unthinkable loss to Japan. But World Cups must be won, not just stumbled upon by accident, and this ultimately was the difference between the two sides.
And so the final awaits New Zealand and Australia. Copious amounts of rubbish will be written and discussed, as it has been already. McCaw to be cited for a vicious elbow, referee Nigel Owens to favour the All Blacks and Australia to potentially be illegitimate winners due to their last minute Scotland heist. Yeah, right.
Oblivious to this, both sides will go about their business quietly and efficiently, knowing that the scoreboard resets at 0-0 and that they are now within touching distance of the cup.