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Having already surged ahead in the ongoing Trans-Tasman Test series, Australia can find themselves within realistic distance of topping the Test charts.
Currently sitting at third in the ICC Test table with the same number of points as Pakistan (in second spot), they have two potential home series where they can pick up full points.
So what happens to the runaway number one Test leaders, South Africa?
The Proteas are well ahead of anybody’s reach at the moment but that lead can definitely dwindle in the next two Test series, one against India – where India has already gone 1-0 up – and in the next home series against England later this year.
There can be numerous possible scenarios and a lot of shifting and sorting might take place in the table as we approach December.
For Australia, it is all about a 3-0 thrashing, or perhaps a more realistic 2-1 drubbing of New Zealand, with a probable win at the WACA certainly elevating them to second.
Then we move to India, where the Proteas will have to turn around massive odds to win the series.
In last half a decade, South Africa have only once lost the opening encounter of an away series – Abu Dhabi in 2013 under Graeme Smith – and now they have an incredibly tough job to even level the series.
Considering the dustbowl Indian pitches and the spin artillery of the home side, a 3-1 or a 2-0 victory for the Indians looks very probable. Even if the margin of defeat is 2-1, it would still mean the Proteas’ tally taking a pounding.
India are currently in fourth and a series victory would take them to second, as Pakistan do not have a Test fixture this year.
Both Pakistan and Australia are 19 rating points behind South Africa.
What that means is that as we approach December we have two series to focus on, starting from Boxing Day with the Australia versus West Indies and South Africa versus England series.
The last time when England visited the South African frontier, they came out with a 1-1 draw from four Tests, and the most probable prediction would again be 2-2 or 1-1. That would certainly not improve South Africa’s rankings and could push them down to second.
It would leave Australia with an opening to make a whitewash and realistically claim the top spot.
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