With Floyd Mayweather Jr hanging up his gloves this past September, the defensively-minded fighter’s position as pay-per-view magnet and poster boy for ‘the sweet science’ is currently vacant.
Even amid great scepticism that Mayweather has genuinely stepped away from boxing, the 38-year-old’s disappearance has certainly shaken up the sport.
In his place, the top candidate to carry the flag as boxing’s premiere star is 25-year-old superstar Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez.
The Mexican-born fighter is gearing up for a high-profile clash in Las Vegas this weekend against lineal middleweight champion Miguel Cotto – a 35-year-old veteran experiencing a career resurrection under the guidance of boxing guru Freddie Roach.
All eyes in the boxing world will be on the HBO pay-per-view bout, which will serve as one of Alvarez’ biggest career tests in more ways than one.
Not only does the seasoned knockout puncher have to deal with the very dangerous Cotto, but he is also expected to prove his worth as a box office attraction as well.
‘Canelo’ shined as a television star earlier this year. His bout in Texas against tough-as-nails journeyman James Kirkland peaked with 2.296 million viewers in the United States alone – the highest HBO boxing rating since Bernard Hopkins stitched up Antonio Tarver to win light heavyweight gold in 2006.
That’s incredibly impressive. But can the baby-faced fighter convince fans to pay top dollar for his middleweight championship bout against Cotto?
Alvarez’ biggest success on pay-per-view was, of course, against Mayweather. The event sold 2.2 million units, which still stands as the third best in history.
Without the support of combat sports’ most polarising figure, the former junior middleweight titleholders fights haven’t grossed anywhere near the same type of money, though.
In Alvarez’ two other pay-per-view appearances against Alfredo Angulo and Erislandy Lara, the Golden Boy Promotions fighter averaged between 300-350,000 purchases.
Unlike those fights, though, this Sunday’s clash with Cotto marks his first pay-per-view fight against another bona fide headliner.
Cotto, Puerto Rico’s only ever four weight class champion, has been in his share of big fights during his near-15-year career as a pro but hasn’t exactly been a consistent pay-per-view attraction.
Given that, many have doubted that this fight can even sell to the masses, but Alvarez’ promoter, former world champion and Olympic gold medalist Oscar De La Hoya, begs to differ, predicting the bout to hit the “two million (buys) mark.”
If De La Hoya’s prediction is anywhere near accurate, most would anoint ‘Canelo’ as Mayweather’s successor – and rightfully so – but I consider that to be incredibly unlikely.
The reality is, Alvarez will always be shadowed by his lone career loss to Mayweather. In the 2013 bout, ‘Money’ outclassed and outboxed the fiery challenger, cruising to an easy 12-round decision.
If Mayweather does – as most are predicting – return to the roped ring for a few more fights to put a bow on his Hall of Fame-worthy career, the bigger, badder, and downright better version of Alvarez that we see today will undoubtedly chase a return match with this generation’s top boxer.
If that fight were to come together, it would be the most important of Alvarez’ career. Becoming the first to ever defeat Mayweather would set him up to be the biggest thing since sliced bread.
But without that win, it seems that Alvarez’ popularity and drawing power has a ceiling.
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