Only a couple of weeks ago I declared that the NBL championship was a race in three, but Hakim Warrick, Kevin Lisch and Jerome Randle have drastically changed my thinking.
The 2015-16 NBL title race looked clear cut a couple of weeks ago, with Melbourne United struggling, and the Perth Wildcats, Illawarra Hawks and New Zealand Breakers the standouts.
But Melbourne regained some outstanding form to have now won five straight matches. If they beat Adelaide this Friday, they will go a long way to securing a top-two finish.
The Wildcats and Hawks appear on track to finish second and third, with the two teams playing off for second position in a tantalising match up this Thursday night at Perth Arena.
The defending champion Breakers were the team I was favouring to win another championship, but they have lost four straight and are out of the top four altogether at the expense of Adelaide, who are on a four-game winning run.
The main reason I thought Melbourne United was a notch below the other contenders was their lack of inside presence, but over the last five games that has changed impressively.
Melbourne has some outstanding perimeter players in Chris Goulding, Stephen Holt, Todd Blanchfield and even big man Daniel Kickert.
But it’s former NBA big man Warrick who has clicked in recent weeks. Being a late signing and then going down injured meant he had a slow start to the season, and it appeared coach Dean Demopoulos was reluctant to give him big minutes.
However, that has changed the last three weeks, and Warrick is simply unguardable in the block. With moves aplenty, length and experience, he is a class above down low, and if he keeps delivering, a championship could result.
In the last six games, Warrick is averaging 18.3 points and 6.3 rebounds a game and he is athletically superior to the rest of the league.
Kirk Penney and AJ Ogilvy might have received much of the attention for the hot form of Illawarra over a run of winning ten of the last 12 games, but their key is Lisch.
The former grand final and league MVP from the Wildcats, Lisch has returned to the NBL from two years in Spain an even better all-round player in his first season with the Hawks.
His ball-handling is remarkable and allows him to create his own shot, get to the basket or set up his teammates.
His defence has become phenomenal too, with his fast hands and feet, and tenacity. He’s the Defensive Player of the Year, having the type of defensive impact that his old teammate Damian Martin has been having for years.
Lisch notched his career-high of 40 points in Sunday’s win over the Breakers, and is preparubg for his 150th game on Thursday, attempting to beat his old Wildcats team for the first time to put the Hawks clear in second position.
Then there is Randle with the 36ers. While Warrick has Goulding, Holt, Kickert, Blanchfield and company surrounding him at Melbourne, and Lisch has Penney, Ogilvy, Rhys Martin, Oscar Forman, Jarrad Weeks and Tim Coenraad in the Illawarra, Randle doesn’t have that luxury.
Daniel Johnson offers good support at centre, but really the Sixers are as much a one-man team as the NBL has had for some time, and their fortunes rest on the little man’s shoulders.
And Randle looks more than capable of putting the team on his back.
In his 17 games this season, he’s averaging 23.6 points and 5.3 assists, but more importantly, with the game on the line he rarely fails to deliver the big shots and never misses at the foul line in clutch situations.
Randle has led the 36ers to four straight wins and into fourth position. Two more wins at home this week against Sydney and Melbourne, and who knows how far Randle can lead the Sixers.
Perennial contenders the Wildcats regained form last Friday with a 27-point win over Sydney to consolidate their playoff place, but their old rivals the Breakers look shaky.
And with news that chief executive Richard Clarke and coach Dean Vickerman will be leaving at season’s end, to be replaced by former championship players Dillon Boucher and Paul Henare, all might not be well with New Zealand.
They head on the Sunshine Swing this week to Townsville and Cairns, and anything short of two wins will see them remain outside the top four.
But Warrick, Lisch and Randle are firing and look more than capable of leading either Melbourne, Illawarra or Adelaide a long way this season.
Round 16 NBL fixtures (AEDT)
All times AEDT, all games shown on Fox Sports 3.
Wednesday
Adelaide 36ers versus Sydney Kings at Titanium Security Arena, 7:30pm
Thursday
Townsville Crocodiles versus New Zealand Breakers at Townsville Entertainment Centre, 7:30pm
Perth Wildcats versus Illawarra Hawks at Perth Arena, 9:30pm
Friday
Adelaide 36ers versus Melbourne United at Titanium Security Arena, 7:30pm
Saturday
Cairns Taipans versus New Zealand Breakers at Cairns Convention Centre, 7:30pm
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