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Today at UFC on FOX 18 Jake Ellenberger is set to face former Strikeforce champion Tarec Saffiedine in the welterweight division. This is a very important fight for both men at this stage of their careers.
Ellenberger is looking to rebound from a first round loss to Stephen ‘Wonderboy’ Thompson while Saffiedine is hoping to get back in the win column after a third round loss to Rory ‘Red King’ MacDonald.
Saffiedine is a good technically sound striker. He often switches his stance from orthodox and southpaw in an attempt to confuse his opponents. Saffiedine has a very patient style of fighting and wins most of his fights by decision with this method.
He has some of the most violent leg kicks in MMA today. Non-telegraphic, fast and accurate giving his opponents very little time to check them. Saffiedine’s boxing mainly consists of lead jabs. He often throws them in doubles or triples making him a solid point fighter.
Saffiedine does come in very wide with his hooks and crosses when he does throw them. This is how MacDonald was able to finish him. Saffiedine came in wide with a hook, and MacDonald came in with a left uppercut that led to the finish.
Saffiedine’s biggest win of his career was against Nate Marquardt, over three years ago. He doesn’t posses any power in his hands, as he’s only managed one TKO finish in his career.
He hasn’t fought in 14 months and that knockout loss he suffered from MacDonald should question his ability to take a shot. MacDonald is not known as a powerful striker.
Ellenberger is your typical boxer-wrestler. He’s looking to land his counter right hand and mix in his takedown attempts when the opening is there. Ellenberger is very compact and powerful which leads to 18 of his career finishes coming by KO or TKO.
He’s fought the top shelf of the UFC’s welterweight division, competing against current champion Robbie Lawler, Stephen Thompson and Rory MacDonald. There is nothing Ellenberger hasn’t already seen.
Fighting all these high-level opponents has lead to a lot of defeats for Ellenberger over the last few years. He has lost four out of his five past contests inside the octagon.
He returned to his former team Kings MMA for this training camp. Hopefully they worked on the obvious things that were hindering his game. More footwork in his attacks and more jabs, leg-kicks, feints and grappling are needed to give him a well-rounded offence.
Ellenberger has all the talent in the world but Ronda Rousey coach Edmond Tarverdyan was unable to bring it out of him. Entering this contest as a new father and losing skid make this certainly the most important fight of his career.
Ellenberger has what it takes to win this fight. I think we’ll see a good well-rounded offence with his new team. However, I think his power will be the difference in this fight and will lead to a finish. Saffiedine’s chin is not there and his striking offence is not enough to scare Ellenberger and get his respect.
Ellenberger comes into this fight a three to one underdog. It’s paying six to one if you take him KO, TKO, disqualification or submission. A finish might be a little too risky to put money on, but the handicappers are really overvaluing the line on Saffiedine for this fight.
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