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As we enter the last round of the regular season – with plenty at stake in Friday and Sunday’s blockbusters – let’s look at the likely NBL award winners, to be announced next week.
The NBL will host its MVP dinner and awards night next Wednesday, ahead of the finals series.
No matter what, the finals will begin at Hisense Arena on Thursday, with Melbourne United hosting either the Illawarra Hawks, Adelaide 36ers or New Zealand Breakers depending on what happens this week.
Before that, Melbourne and Perth both have two games each this week to determine top spot, while the New Zealand Breakers and Adelaide 36ers play twice each on Friday and Sunday to work out who makes the finals and who misses out.
It’s no easy equation but things will become a lot clearer come Friday.
Until then, here are my predictions on the major award winners for what has been a standout NBL season to date:
Most valuable player: Jerome Randle (Adelaide 36ers)
The MVP award should be presented to the best player in the league, and to the player who has the biggest impact on helping his team win games.
There is no question the impact that Jerome Randle has had with the Adelaide 36ers, he’s the best player in the NBL and unquestionably the biggest game-winner for his team.
That should be the criteria for the MVP, and it will be an injustice if any other player takes home the Andrew Gaze Trophy.
Randle’s numbers are outstanding at 23.8 points, 5.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds a game, while shooting 47 per cent from the field and 88 per cent at the free-throw line. But it’s his big-game nature that makes him so good.
He has stepped up for the 36ers when it mattered most and he is almost single-handedly why his team are in the finals hunt. His ability to play or be at 100 per cent this week likely will determine if Adelaide qualifies or not.
The only thing that could stop Randle from his deserved MVP title is the voting system. The way it works is that both coaches cast votes after each match, so the system does reward consistency and playing every game. Randle has so far missed five games and could miss two more.
Other contenders
The next line of MVP contenders likely all come from the Illawarra Hawks in the form of AJ Ogilvy, Kirk Penney and Kevin Lisch. All have had outstanding seasons but could take votes from one another. New Zealand’s Corey Webster had his moments but hasn’t been consistent enough, and the same with Melbourne’s Chris Goulding or Stephen Holt. Webster’s Breakers teammate Cedric Jackson likely hasn’t had enough standout games after a mid-season lull.
Rookie of the year: Nick Kay (Townsville Crocodiles)
This is the easiest award, as Kay has been the standout rookie by a considerable margin.
The power forward arrived at the Crocs following a standout college career at Metro State University and has settled in seamlessly. He has also become considerably better since Townsville sacked reigning MVP Brian Conklin in favour of Omar Samhan, with whom Kay has formed a terrific bond.
Kay might only be 23, but has the heart of a warrior and is a tremendous workhorse inside. He has all the tools defensively and offensively, is a monster on the glass, and capable of scoring a number of ways.
He’s averaged 10.5 points and 6.6 rebounds a game but has had some huge performances, most notably 24 points and 15 boards last Saturday night.
He is a star of the NBL for the next decade, and someone the Crocs should be aiming to build their young team around.
Other contenders
This is Kay’s award by the length of the straight with nobody else even in the discussion.
Best defensive player: Kevin Lisch (Illawarra Hawks)
This award has been a lock to be Damian Martin’s – he’s won the last five – but the Perth captain has missed almost half of the season. I’m going with his 2010 championship teammate Kevin Lisch to take it off him.
Lisch played his first 130 NBL games alongside Martin, and by seeing him harass the opposition on game day and playing against him at practice every other day, he has learned a lot of Martin’s tricks, turning himself into every bit the defensive menace.
Lisch has returned from two seasons in Spain a better all-round player and that’s saying something considering how good he already he was, as a league and grand final MVP.
It’s his defence that has gone to the next level and his quickness, toughness, tenacity and fast hands make him a nightmare for opposition guards.
Averaging two steals a game goes part of the way to explaining his defence, but ask any rival guard: playing against him now is every bit as tough as Martin at his best.
Other contenders
With Martin likely out of the running due to the games he has missed, it’s a more an open race than in years. Lisch’s teammate AJ Ogilvy, Townsville Crocs import guard Jordair Jett and Perth Wildcats swingman Casey Prather deserve to be in the discussion.
Best sixth man: Hakim Warrick (Melbourne United)
This is another award that could go a number of ways, but Warrick has the biggest impact coming off the bench in the league and is the best player not starting in the NBL.
With the experience of 532 NBA games behind him and the athletic gifts with his size, length and moves only seen at that top level, Warrick is a luxury for Melbourne United to bring off the bench, and could well be their most important piece in what they hope is a championship puzzle.
Warrick is simply unguardable in the block, and can score at will. He can also be a menace defensively with his length.
While he might have been a little underused at less than 22 minutes a game, he’s been productive at 13.9 points and 5.5 rebounds. Entering the finals, it’s time for him to go up another level.
Other contenders
Torrey Craig at the Cairns Taipans was likely his biggest challenger but he has ended up starting virtually the whole second half of the season. In terms of pure non-starters, New Zealand forward Tai Wesley and Perth forward Jesse Wagstaff should be in calculations.
Most improved player: Clint Steindl (Townsville Crocodiles)
This is perhaps the toughest award to pick but I’m going with Steindl, who has turned himself from a sharpshooting three-point sniper, to an all-round NBL player.
Over his 107 NBL games, his shooting ability has never been in question. And that has again been good this season with him shooting at 38.9 per cent from beyond the arc.
But it’s the development of the rest of his game that has been most impressive. He has greatly improved defensively, has become a better ball handler, and has improved his ability to create plays for his teammates and his own shots off the dribble.
That has seen him average 12.3 points and 3.6 rebounds for the season and increase his career-high points total on numerous occasions, which now sits on 23.
All that is an improvement on last season, when he averaged 9.6 points, 3.2 rebounds and shot 38.3 per cent from three-point range.
Other contenders
There are a host of other deserving candidates including Adelaide’s Mitch Creek, Illawarra’s Jarrad Weeks, New Zealand’s Tai Wesley and Sydney’s Jason Cadee.
Coach of the year: Rob Beveridge (Illawarra Hawks)
Another tough choice with some strong candidates but you can’t deny the job Rob Beveridge has done to take the wooden spooners into the finals, and now genuine championship contenders.
Beveridge took over the job with the Hawks and with virtually none of the resources he had during his successful run with Perth, he went about building a squad to be successful.
He kept Hawks mainstays Oscar Forman, Rhys Martin, Tim Coenraad and Larry Davidson, but added to them with former league MVPs Lisch and Penney, and likely the league’s best big man Ogilvy.
It’s a testament to the esteem that Beveridge is held in that three players of such quality all wanted to come back to Australia to play under him.
And with his outstanding coaching style of demanding the best of his players, and in turn giving them his 100 per cent backing, the Hawks are in the finals and could very well come away with a title. Which is what he did in his first season in Perth, back in 2010.
Other contenders
Dean Demopoulos’ tremendous job in his first season with Melbourne United, Joey Wright making the Adelaide 36ers into a contender, and Shawn Dennis’ making the Townsville Crocodiles competitive are also standout performances.
All-NBL first team
AJ Ogilvy (Illawarra Hawks)
Daniel Kickert (Melbourne United)
Kirk Penney (Illawarra Hawks)
Kevin Lisch (Illawarra Hawks)
Jerome Randle (Adelaide 36ers)
Selecting these teams are never easy, but Ogilvy has been the standout big man in the league this season and is a lock as centre. Randle is also a lock as point guard. Lisch isn’t far behind him and can play as a combo guard.
Kickert’s ability as a four man to shoot from the outside is outstanding, but he’s also played more inside as the season’s gone on, meaning he gets that other frontcourt spot.
And Penney has returned to the NBL not far off his remarkable scoring and shooting best seeing him take the spot of a pure shooter.
All-NBL second team
Daniel Johnson (Adelaide 36ers)
Hakim Warrick (Melbourne United)
Corey Webster (NZ Breakers)
Chris Goulding (Melbourne United)
Cedric Jackson (NZ Breakers)
All five players in the second team had a strong case for the first team. But Johnson is just behind Ogilvy in the best big-man stakes, while Warrick backs up Kickert and Majok Majok at Melbourne, so he can here as well.
Webster would have been a lock until a late-season slump, but he still wasn’t too far behind Penney. Goulding also wasn’t far off but hasn’t quite put up the numbers of Penney or Webster, while Jackson is just shaded at point guard by Randle but that’s no shame.
The hardest done by players to not be in either team include Melbourne’s Stephen Holt and Perth’s Casey Prather, but it’s hard for either to be picked ahead of Jackson, Goulding, Webster, Randle, Lisch or Penney.