I haven’t ever seen a side get destroyed as badly in a single off-season as the Roosters did since last October.
Their side went from stacked to, well, just above-average.
After finishing the 2015 season as the minor premiers for the third year straight, the Roosters were eliminated in the qualifying final for the second season in a row.
At that point they were heading into 2016 without Roger Tuivasa-Sheck and James Maloney, thanks to salary cap issues. Then in the space of about a month everything hit the fan.
First, the club decided to offload Michael Jennings, one of the better centres in the game, to give themselves some cap space. While this weakened the squad a little, Jennings’ replacement, Dale Copley, is certainly a first grader.
Then Mitchell Pearce did the whole dog thing, which means he is likely to sit out the season – well, if the NRL had any backbone he would sit out the season anyway. This is the guy’s second offence, and he made the game look stupid, so I am writing this preview running on the assumption that he is gone for the season.
This had the Roosters heading into the 2016 season with an inexperienced halves pairing of Jayden Nikorima and Jackson Hastings, but at least they still had a ridiculous forward pack. However, then Boyd Cordner got injured for an indefinite period of time, and it was announced that Jared Waerea-Hargreaves would be out for about ten weeks.
And that was that, the Roosters went from an automatic top-four side to one that could end up outside the eight. And that isn’t even mentioning the Shaun Kenny-Dowall trial.
Normally I only post one list, predicting who would get picked where if there are no injuries. However this time I will post the list predicted a few months ago versus the one going to line up Round 1.
Predicted Round 1 team as of October 2015
1. Blake Ferguson
2. Anthony Tupou
3. Michael Jennings
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Joe Burgess
6. Jackson Hastings
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Dylan Napa
11. Boyd Cordner
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Sio Siua Taukeiaho
14. Isaac Liu
15. Kane Evans
16. Mitchell Aubusson
17. Sam Moa
Predicted Round 1 team as of February 2016
1. Blake Ferguson
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Dale Copley
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Joe Burgess
6. Jayden Nikorima
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Sam Moa
9. Jake Friend
10. Dylan Napa
11. Mitchell Aubusson
12. Aidan Guerra
13. Sio Siua Taukeiaho
14. Isaac Liu
15. Kane Evans
16. Ian Henderson
17. Vincent Leuluai
Strengths
Despite the loss of Jennings, the centres are still very good. Copley is young but was one of the best players in the 2014 Broncos side, and is touted as a future Origin star. He may be a downgrade from Jennings, but is still a young player with a lot of promise and a long career ahead of him.
Kenny-Dowall may have thrown one of the worst passes of all time in the 2015 finals series, but he is a dangerous, fast player, capable of ripping through edge defences and playing on both the wing and in the centres. He is quality, a New Zealand representative mainstay, and will be for years to come.
Friend is one of the best dummyhalves in that game. With the rest of the spine around him untested in their positions, Friend will be the main man for the Roosters, but he can handle himself. Widely expected to be the next Queensland hooker once Cameron Smith leaves, Friend steers the Roosters around the park expertly in attack and holds them together solidly in defence. His kicking and attacking game will be invaluable, especially when they are close to the try line. Friend is going to have to learn to be an 80-minute hooker because Ian Henderson is… We’ll get to that later.
Hastings played out of his skin in the back half of 2015, in fact he was playing better than Pearce. His partnership with Maloney was part of the reason the Roosters had such a powerful run into the finals. His kicking game was on point, his linking game was amazing, and he played well in general. The big question is, can he keep up that form as a dominant half?
Then we get to the big boppers. Even without two of its best players, this pack is littered with talent, power, speed and most importantly variation. Sam Moa is a complete wrecking ball with the ball in hands, charging into the defensive line with no fear. Dylan Napa is essentially a thug on the field, he looks and acts like he is just out there to hurt people with his ridiculous hits in both attack and defence. Kane Evans’ game has been growing since his debut, and he looks set for a breakout season.
Mitchell Aubusson is one of the most underrated players in the game, and may be one of the best utility players going. He can play at centre, dummy half, five-eighth and in his primary position the second row. He is just an all-around solid player.
Aiden Guerra is an incredibly talented second-rower, while Sio Siua Taukeiaho was a talented and capable replacement for Sonny Bill Williams, making a huge impact from debuted. In the most stacked forward pack in the comp, he managed to force his way from the bench to the starting side in the space of one season, very impressive.
Then there are the two who turn this forward pack from pretty-damn-good to god-tier.
Waerea-Hargreaves is one of the best forwards in the business. On multiple occasions last year he single handily changed the momentum of games with his attacking runs. Cordner won the 2013 Dally M Second Rower of the Year, and is just talented in general. Once those two come in, I can see the Roosters’ winning percentage increase significantly.
Trent Robinson has a great record in the regular season – he may have had a stacked side, but three minor premierships in three seasons is huge. People complain that he chokes in the finals, but no one was going to beat the Rabbitohs in 2014, or the Cowboys in 2015.
People need to remember that coming into 2013 the Roosters were not a highly rated side. He may have had a talented roster, but his coaching is primarily what got the Roosters the premiership, not the roster.
Weaknesses
Blake Ferguson is not a fullback. He may be a very good centre, but he will not have the positioning required of a fullback. Unfortunately however, he is the Roosters’ best option.
Latrell Mitchell is far too young to play fullback in first grade – his body would not be ready for the rigours. He may have played well in the World Club Challenge, but the English sides are essentially NSW Cup level.
Daniel Tupou is good at catching high balls, but that is about it. His game is far too one dimensional for a representative winger. Most of the other Roosters players that debuted in 2012-13 have evolved their game, Tupou just hasn’t. He is an average winger, and I see him being dropped sometime into next year.
Friend needs to become an 80-minute hooker as quickly as possible, because Henderson isn’t good enough. Matt McIlwrick was bad last year, but this guy will be horrible.
Then we get to the halves. Nikorima is a talented young player, but pairing him and Hastings together will be a disaster. They are both far too young and inexperienced to be successful. And while Kieran Foran and Daly Cherry-Evans played well together when inexperienced, for every Foran and DCE you have ten Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses cases. One half needs some first-grade experience.
I am not a big fan of Pearce by any means, but losing him is why they aren’t a top-four side.
Expectations
If they remain relatively injury-free, the Roosters won’t miss the eight. Their forward pack is good even without Cordner and JWH, their backs are still serviceable, and their coach is excellent.
Even with an inexperienced spine, the Roosters are still a very good side. They might struggle a little early on, but with JWH and Cordner back, Hastings and Nikorima a little more familiar in first grade, and Friend finishing his transition into an 80-minute hooker, they will end the season red hot, and finish sixth.
Conclusion
The Roosters don’t have the side for a premiership, but they will be there come September.
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