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Which way up? How your NRL side needs to improve in 2016

Dylan Napa will be back for the big dance. (AAP Image/Paul Miller)
Expert
2nd March, 2016
52
1949 Reads

Well, season 2016 is upon us finally. Right now every team can have optimism about what will transpire.

However, with the exception of last year’s grand finalists (who mostly just need to maintain 2015’s excellence), every NRL team needs to improve at least something, if not lots of things, in order to genuinely challenge for the 2016 premiership.

So what does your side have to do?

Sydney Roosters
Last season was the third in a row that the Roosters finished top of the table. So what do they really have to improve? Well, firstly they need to work on winning preliminary finals, having lost the last two they have been in.

Frankly, the Roosters’ 2015 stats were almost totally sensational wall-to-wall. However, there were a couple of things that they didn’t do so well:

• sixth worst for metres conceded per game
• fifth worst for missed tackles
• fourth worst for penalties conceded
• worst for errors made

The good news for Roosters fans is that three of their five worst error prone players – James Maloney, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck – have departed the club. However, Their two most error prone – Daniel Tupou and Blake Ferguson – must fix their fumble fingers.

With the departure of Maloney the Roosters have farewelled easily their worst tackler (3.9 misses a match) and their worst penalty conceder (24 for the season).

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The Chooks’ biggest problem is replacing the loss of their biggest metre-gainer and tackle-breaker (Tuivasa-Sheck – 216 and 6.4), their biggest try and line-break assister (Maloney – 20 and 15), as well as the indefinite absence of Mitchell Pearce and the long-term absence of Boyd Cordner and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves.

There is a lot resting on the young trio of Latrell Mitchell, Jackson Hastings and Jayden Nikorima to quickly live up to their potential.

Melbourne Storm
While the Storm’s 2015 defensive stats were extremely good as usual, their attack stats were mediocre almost all across the board. Tries scored, line breaks and metres gained were all spot on the NRL average. Tellingly, their tackle breaks were below average.

The Storm know how to grind out a win. Based on a low risk, low error game, Cooper Cronk’s kicking game gets them field position, they press for an error and – when those errors come – they strike.

The problem is that plan has been failing due to lack of strike. Or in specific, lack of Billy Slater. Across 2013 and 2014 Slater averaged 130 metres a match, four tackle breaks a game and 13 tries a season. He played over 20 games in both seasons.

Last year he played just seven games. Is injury ending the magical career of Billy the Kid with a whimper? Or can he set the competition on fire in 2016?

The Storm desperately need him to perform as his heir apparent – Cameron Munster – is out for the first few games of the season with a medial strain. Marika Koroibete and Will Chambers will also need to perform well in attack if the Storm are to truly challenge. The absence of the excellent Ryan Hinchcliffe will put more pressure on the broad shoulders of captain Cameron Smith.

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Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs
The Bulldogs’ 2015 stats were either better than average or very good in pretty much every attacking and defensive statistic. They were third best for line breaks conceded and fourth best for tries scored and line breaks. The only stat where they were bad was in metres conceded, where they were second worst.

However, worst for that stat were the Broncos, third worst were the Cowboys and fourth the Storm. How bad that stat really is is questionable.

So why did they get bundled out in the semis? Effectively it was because they missed the top four and the double chance. And they only missed the top four on for and against.

All they needed was one more win. I’d suggest that what the Dogs need to do is vastly improve their discipline. The week after David Klemmer and James Graham got suspended for their Good Friday display of lunacy, their team got hammered by 25 points by the Dragons. Two weeks later they got flogged by the Wests Tigers.

Had Graham been present the following week against the Cowboys maybe they’d have been able to get closer than seven points. And then there is ‘The Grub’ – Josh Reynolds. Any of you who follow my articles would know that Reynolds is one of my very favourite players. However, the very passion I love him for can cause brain snaps.

Last season he was in trouble for tripping. The season before it was that and high tackles that had him kicking chairs in the dressing rooms. The Dogs need to get the stupid out of their game to truly realise their potential.

Cronulla-Sutherland Sharks
The poor old Sharkies… Paul Gallen says he’s sick of being reminded that his team has been in the competition since 1967 – 48 years and counting, this is their 49th – and they’ve never won a premiership.

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Why didn’t they make to the decider last year?

Well, firstly they ran into the eventual premiers in the semi-finals and got taken apart. Secondly, arguably their two best players in Gallen and Andrew Fifita missed eight matches each through either injury or suspension. Losing their first four matches of the season was also somewhat of a handicap.

However, the biggest issue they have is that, while their overall stats are pretty good, their ability to score tries is well below that of a true contender. They scored well below the season average to be the sixth worst try scorers and only average line breakers. They were the third best tackle breakers though.

The inclusion of Chad Townshend and James Maloney are hoped to remedy that problem this year. But can Fifita and Gallen stay on the field?

South Sydney Rabbitohs
The all conquering Rabbitohs of 2014 meekly surrendered in the first week of the 2015 final series. In 2014 their attack and especially defence were the benchmarks of the NRL. However, there were big roster changes. Gone were Ben Teo, Apisai Koroisau, Kirisome Auva’a and especially Sam Burgess.

While Sam’s brothers George and Tom battled valiantly, the powerful go forward from the previous season just wasn’t there. They went from the side that made the second most metres per game in 2014 to ninth in 2015.

With Adam Reynolds and Luke Keary failing to replicate their attacking prowess behind a pack that was struggling to go forward, it was left to superstar fullback Greg Inglis to try and drag his team to victory. While he tried valiantly, he missed five games through injury and State of Origin and was clearly struggling with a dodgy knee at the business end of the season.

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The Rabbitohs scored the most tries in 2014 but only the ninth most last season.
With the return of Sam Burgess don’t be surprised to see the Rabbitohs’ forward pack get their mojo back and give the backline the room they need to shine again.

St George Illawarra Dragons
Above I mentioned that the Sharks’ biggest issue was not being able to score enough tries. The Dragons have made try-scoring inability into an art form.

While their defence last season was often superb (fourth best for tries conceded, line breaks conceded and errors) they couldn’t turn their strong tackle breaking (fifth best) into tries (second worst) or line breaks (worst).

They’ll be hoping that the addition of Tim Lafai and Kurt Mann will change this paradigm. However, the change must firstly come from halves Benji Marshall and Gareth Widdop, who combined for just 33 tries last year.

Their biggest opportunity for improvement, though, lies with Josh Dugan. While he averaged 167 metres per match and 5.8 tackle breaks a game in 2015, it was the sound and fury signifying very little. The boy from Tuggeranong laid on just two line breaks and one try.

Just to bring those stats home to you, Dugan was the lowest ranked fullback for try and line break assists for all the players who played fullback for a minimum of ten matches. And easily the lowest ranked.

Can you imagine what effect it would have on the Dragon’s fortunes if Dugan could translate his prodigious metre gaining and tackle breaking into tries?

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Manly Warringah Sea Eagles
Last year was a pile of steaming excrement for the Brookvale boys that they so nearly managed to recover with a finals berth. So what went wrong?

Well, firstly they got hit badly with the injury stick. Brenton Lawrence and Clinton Gutherson played just one game each. Jamie Buhrer managed seven. Jorge Taufua missed seven, as did Jamie Lyon. Kieran Foran missed five.

Secondly, their recruits didn’t work out. Willie Mason managed an average of only 87 metres a match, Luke Burgess just 75. Thirdly, they had only five players who averaged over 100 metres a game, and only two of them – Jake Trbojevic and Justin Horo – were forwards.

Then, of course, there was the Daly Cherry-Evans chaos. He signed with the Gold Coast Titans and the fractured Sea Eagles won only three of their first 11 games. After his $10 million dollar backflip on June 3 they went on to win eight of their last 13. They fell just short of the finals.

While Kieran Foran and Matt Ballin have now departed, perhaps harmony will settle on Brookvale for a while – if the results are good that is.

Lots of pressure will be on recruits Nate Myles, Martin Taupau and Lewis Brown to get the Sea Eagles pack going forward again. In 2015, they made the second fewest metres and line breaks per match and the fewest tackle breaks. And Cherry-Evans really needs to earn his pay.

Canberra Raiders
The Raiders’ vast improvement in 2015, along with some more strong recruiting, has given the faithful of Canberra, Queanbeyan, Goulburn and Yass some real hope for the first time in years.

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During the home-and-away season they scored more points than all but the Roosters and Cowboys. On the flip side, however, they conceded just eight fewer than they scored. On 19 occasions their opposition scored over 20 points.

In 2014 they lost nine matches by 13 points or more. In 2015 there were only four such large losses. However, they lost six games by four points or less. Arguably they should have won all six of them.

So, while they’ve clearly learnt how to score far more points with Blake Austin at five-eighth, their defence can still be crap. They missed the fifth most tackles and conceded the second most line breaks. Further, their composure in tight games was lacking.

The question is will the inclusion of Aidan Sezer and Elliott Whitehead provide the tonic to the ailments?

Penrith Panthers
After such a wonderful 2014 season that was finally cruelled by one too many injuries, many of us held great hopes for the Panthers in 2015. However, if the injuries were bad in 2014, last year they were catastrophic.

The Panthers used 32 players in 2015, the most of any club. Only Jeremy Latimore, Sam McKendry and Reagan Campbell-Gillard played every match.

The list of long-term injured included Matt Moylan (missed 13 games), Josh Mansour (12), Jamie Soward (8), Peter Wallace (11), Brent Kite (18), Dallin Watene Zelezniak (8), Adam Docker (missed 23 and has tragically retired due to chronic injury), Brent Kite (18) and Jamal Idris (18).

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Given this injury toll, many of us were shocked when Gus Gould unceremoniously sacked coach Ivan Cleary at season’s end and replaced him with Anthony Griffin. Perhaps Gus thought that Cleary’s methods were to blame for the large injury toll?

The Panthers’ biggest challenge is staying fit and trying to get back their 2014 form. The challenge for Griffin is to improve on his post-Darren Lockyer win percentage of 47 per cent – that won’t make the finals.

Parramatta Eels
Any side that lost a player the calibre of Jarryd Hayne would find it hard to replace him. And so it was with the Eels in 2015. They won three fewer games than in 2014 and were never really a good chance to make the eight.

They finished the year in the bottom three for line breaks, tackle breaks and metres gained. They were in the top three for missed tackles.

What they really need this year is better generalship and stronger defence. The recruitment has been very strong to assist this goal. Foran, Michael Jennings, Beau Scott , Michael Gordon, James Hasson and Gutherson are all superb signings with experience, skills and leadership to burn.

Now they need it all to gel, luck with injuries and the protagonists in the long running civil war to give it a break. It’s 30 years since Ray Price and Mick Cronin lifted the Winfield Cup. Could Tim Mannah and Foran lift the cup this year?

New Zealand Warriors
When the Warriors beat the Melbourne Storm in Round 18 of 2015 it was their ninth win of the season and they found themselves in the top four. The dynamic Shaun Johnson was on fire and while he was fit the Warriors could beat anyone.

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The following week they got comprehensively beaten 24-0 by the Roosters. In Round 20 disaster struck and Johnson’s ankle was broken in the act of scoring a try against Manly. To cut a long story short, the Warriors lost their last eight matches straight and finished in 13th spot.

The recruitment of Issac Luke and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck will provide Johnson with the skilled and experienced support he needs to turn the massive potential of the Warriors into results. However, if things aren’t going well within the first eight weeks expect coach Andrew McFadden to get the boot with possibly a return of ex-coach Ivan Cleary.

Gold Coast Titans
2015 was a year that the Titans would like to forget quickly. The club almost went belly up before the NRL bailed them out. Then there was a brief moment of sunshine with the announcement that Cherry-Evans was coming to join them in 2016.

But then the whole thing went pear-shaped. Players were implicated in drug issues, they lost Nate Myles and Aidan Sezer to other clubs and then DCE back-flipped.

That they didn’t get the spoon was a serious achievement.

The Titans were in the bottom three for pretty much every attacking stat and in the bottom three for every defensive stat. Now their excellent halfback Kane Elgey is out for the season. Their squad actually has a fair bit of talent in it but there may be too many has beens and not quite good enoughs to be truly competitive.

Recruits David Shillington and Nathan Friend need to squeeze one more season of good footy out of themselves to help show the young Titans the way. Young Ashley Taylor needs to turn his promise into reality and Chris McQueen needs to show he wasn’t just a flash in the pan. As well, Will Zillman, Josh Hoffman and Greg Bird need to have strong years.

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Wests Tigers
The Wests Tigers won only a third of their matches last year, just eight for the season. While they were capable of turning it on – they walloped the Storm, the Warriors and the Bunnies – they also lost six by big margins.

James Tedesco (14 line break assists, 13 try assists, 17 tries, 139 metres a match and 6.5 tackle breaks a match) and Aaron Woods (148 metres and 32 tackles a game) were shining stars for the Tigers last season and they’ll need to reprise that again in 2016.

What really needs to happen for Wests is that their two young halves in Mitchell Moses and Luke Brooks must improve their tackling. Moses averaged four misses a game and Brooks 3.5. They were routinely targeted to great effect. Perhaps Jack Littlejohn will have more luck holding his own.

The other thing the club needs to do is stop all the infighting. Everyone is just waiting for Round 2 of Robbie Farah versus Jason Taylor to happen. You can’t have the team coach and the most senior player at loggerheads and expect success. You just can’t.

Newcastle Knights
Can you believe that the Knights actually beat the Cowboys last year in Townsville? Well, they did. And let’s not forget that after Round 4 they were undefeated and on top of the table.

However, they then lost 16 of the next 20 matches to finish with the spoon. The Cowboys were the only side who made the eight that the Knights beat.

While lots of their stats were average, their big problem was that they conceded the most line breaks and the second most tries. Like the Tigers, the Knights halves could perform the role of turnstile too well in defence. Jarrod Mullen and Tyrone Roberts both averaged three misses a game. As well, Dane Gagai missed three tackles a match.

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There have been a lot of departures and not that many arrivals to help turn the Knights’ fortunes around. Although Trent Hodkinson was a great buy, time will tell if Nathan Brown was.

The Knights have to bond as a team and stick to their gameplan if they are to have any chance in 2016.

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