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How should we rate the Sydney of 2015, six months after the fact, and where are we going to place them in 2016?
The Swans were a comfortable top-four finisher after 22 home-and-away rounds last year, but produced an undermanned side in finals to be slapped out in straight sets. They then lost five premiership players over the off-season, for a variety of reasons.
Read the rest of Cam’s AFL season previews here.
They had some huge wins over non-finalists throughout the season, but got belted a couple of times by good sides. In fact, they only won one match against the top six teams, based on ladder position, but they only lost one match to a side that finished outside the eight.
Are Sydney achieving all they should, or would they have benefited from moving John Longmire on?
Here is a likely Sydney side to tackle the season ahead.
| B: | Jeremy Laidler | Ted Richards | Nick Smith | |
| HB: | Dane Rampe | Heath Grundy | Jarrad McVeigh | |
| C: | Gary Rohan | Josh Kennedy | Dan Hannebery | |
| HF: | Tom Mitchell | Lance Franklin | Sam Reid | |
| F: | Dean Towers | Kurt Tippett | Isaac Heeney | |
| Foll: | Callum Sinclair | Luke Parker | Keiren Jack | |
| Int: | Ben McGlynn | Harry Cunningham | Zak Jones | Callum Mills |
| Em: | Jake Lloyd | Brandon Jack | Michael Talia |
The key planks of the Sydney backline, Ted Richards and Heath Grundy, are both ageing and thus vulnerable. They are starting to feel the pinch of long careers playing a hard game, and their limitations are beginning to show. Grundy has too many aberrations to be considered a top-liner.
Sam Reid should be given the chance to own centre half-back, where he would be one of the best in the league. Whether he will or not will depend on John Longmire’s nous. Michael Talia was brought to the club to help out in this area too.
Nick Smith will do the small lockdown jobs once more, having forged a career out of doing so. Jeremy Laidler is a good ordinary player at best. Dane Rampe loves to run the ball out of defence, frequently to the detriment of his team. He’s a master of the shank at an inopportune time.
Sydney desperately needs some class down back to begin their defensive transitions. Jarrad McVeigh should spend a lot more time down there, as he did in 2013, where his poise and decision-making will be critical.
Zak Jones was given a taste of it last year, and should be another of the very good dependable footballers that the Swans always seem to produce. The possibility of Gary Rohan floating through the backline has also been posed by Longmire, to inject some speed into a sluggish area.
Callum Mills, taken at pick three in last year’s draft, has also been playing down there during the NAB Challenge and is another option.
Sydney’s midfield has some of the biggest names in the league. They have so much quality through there, so why couldn’t they stem the tide against the best teams last year?
Josh Kennedy and Dan Hannebery have been voted in the top 15 players in the league by our panel of experts here at the Roar, and you can read Ryan’s take on them both here. Luke Parker and Kieran Jack will also be making an appearance in the top 50 later in the week.
Kennedy is the premier contested ball and clearance player in the league. Hannebery is in the top handful of outside players. Both get the ball 30 times a game and hit the scoreboard regularly too.
Parker also likes to get down and dirty, and no-one goes harder at the footy, often injuring himself in the process. He combines that with the happy knack of popping up quite often for multiple goals. Jack isn’t quite the weapon he was of a few seasons ago, and will be looking to elevate his standing once more.
Tom Mitchell is a ball magnet that was belatedly given a chance to shine after two years being unwisely ignored by Longmire and his coaching staff. He wins the footy, and tackles hard and often.
Isaac Heeney provided some jaw-dropping moments in his first season, living up to the amount of hype that accompanied his arrival. He’s a natural footballer with awareness, timing and a great pair of hands. He’s going to be a joy to watch as he matures, but will likely have to spend a lot of time forward of centre.
As we’ve seen above, Sydney has a lot of options to play down back and through the middle. They’ll have up to 10-12 players rotate through those areas, but they don’t have the same amount of natural options to run with up forward.
Lance Franklin is still a marquee player in the game, a little bit forgotten due to only playing a couple of games after Round 18 last year, having very little impact in either. His best is still mercurial, his consistency underrated. His team will need both this year.
Kurt Tippett and Callum Sinclair will both play, sharing ruck and forward duties between them.
Tippett doesn’t get the respect he deserves given he is far and away the best player in his role in the league, and frankly it’s an indictment on the greater football community.
There is no key forward in the AFL that can kick 44 goals in a season and also have the capacity to play as an influential number one ruckman. There is no ruckman in the competition that could rest forward and have his impact.
Sinclair is both an inferior ruckman and forward to Tippett, but is competent enough at each that he’ll be important to the Sydney structure.
Dean Towers will be given every chance to cement his spot in the old Ryan O’Keefe role, providing a medium-sized link option by leading up the field, and using neat skills to set up opportunities inside fifty. He’ll be required to hit the scoreboard regularly too.
What the Swans are badly lacking is a natural small crumbing forward. They desperately crave one.
Can Ben McGlynn stay fit and revert back to that role? Can Brandon Jack find a niche given his speed and pressure skills? James Rose kicked three on debut late last year and looked OK against Carlton last weekend.
The interchange cap may benefit Sydney in this regard, given Kennedy, Parker, Mitchell and Jack can all be dangerous resting forward, with the first two in particular capable of taking a good mark.
The Swans depth outside of their best 25 named above is almost non-existent. In fact, disregarding Alex Johnson, who hasn’t played in three and half years, the total number of games played on the Sydney list outside that squad is only 29.
And there are seven players in that squad yet to play more than 30 games. The top end at Sydney is very strong, but the bottom end is starting look thin indeed, albeit a few of them have shown good indications.
The downfall of Sydney last year was being unable to stop runs of goals against. It cost them games against the Western Bulldogs and Richmond, and saw them embarrassed against Hawthorn and West Coast.
With a more inexperienced side again, will this issue continue to haunt them? What can Longmire do to change things up?
The Swans are wanting for natural speed, both when running with ball in hand, but also for covering quick ball movement from the teams named above. With most clubs looking to move the ball ever quicker, this could become even more of an Achilles heel.
They don’t have any explosive pace of their own out of congestion. Gary Rohan has the toe but isn’t that sort of player. A fit McGlynn might be able to, but that seems fanciful. Lewis Jetta was purely outside speed, but is gone.
Sydney will continue to be too good for the middle and lower tier teams, thanks to their top end. Something will need to drastically change for them to match it with the best, due to their bottom half dozen. This is a team set up to win flags between 2010-2012, not this year.
The might finish a bit higher or a bit lower, but the second half of the eight feels like their destiny in season 2016. They’ll march into finals, two to a pair like they’re boarding Noah’s ark. But they’ll sink when they get there.
Predicted ladder spread: fourth – ninth
Predicted finish: seventh
Best and fairest: Josh Kennedy
Leading goalkicker: Lance Franklin
All-Australian potential: Josh Kennedy, Dan Hannebery, Lance Franklin, Luke Parker
Rising Star candidates: Callum Mills, James Rose
Current ladder
7. Sydney
8. GWS
9. Collingwood
10. Adelaide
11. North Melbourne
12. Melbourne
13. Gold Coast
14. Port Adelaide
15. St Kilda
16. Brisbane
17. Carlton
18. Essendon