- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
This weekend marks Round 4 of season 2016 and by its end we start to get our first real feel for how the sheep and the goats are sorting.
While some teams, like Melbourne Storm and the Canberra Raiders, will be fairly happy with their unbeaten starts, the Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors and Sydney Roosters are under threat of remaining winless.
So just how bad is a poor start to the season for a side’s chances of winning the premiership? Well, I’ve painstakingly crunched the results from the NRL’s 18 seasons to find out.
| Year | Premier | First four results | Won season | Lost season | Position after first four | Ladder position Round 10 | Final ladder position |
| 2015 | Cowboys | Lost three | 17 | 7 | 15th | 4th | 3rd |
| 2014 | Rabbitohs | Lost three | 15 | 9 | 14th | 9th | 3rd |
| 2013 | Roosters | Won three | 18 | 6 | 6th | 2nd | 1st |
| 2012 | Storm | Won four | 17 | 7 | 1st | 1st | 1st |
| 2011 | Sea Eagles | Won two | 18 | 6 | 8th | 3rd | 2nd |
| 2010 | Dragons | Won three | 17 | 7 | 2nd | 1st | 1st |
| 2009 | Storm | Won two | 14 | 9 (1 draw) | 8th | 5th | 4th |
| 2008 | Sea Eagles | Won two | 17 | 7 | 5th | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2007 | Storm | Won four | 21 | 3 | 3rd | 2nd | 1st |
| 2006 | Broncos | Won two | 14 | 10 | 9th | 4th | 3rd |
| 2005 | Tigers | Won three | 14 | 10 | 4th | 10th | 4th |
| 2004 | Bulldogs | Won three | 19 | 5 | 4th | 2nd | 2nd |
| 2003 | Panthers | Won three | 18 | 6 | 13th | 5th | 1st |
| 2002 | Roosters | Won three | 16 | 8 | 12th | 6th | 4th |
| 2001 | Knights | Won two | 16 | 9 (1 draw) | 4th | 1st | 3rd |
| 2000 | Broncos | Won three | 18 | 6 (2 draws) | 1st | 1st | 1st |
| 1999 | Storm | Won three | 16 | 8 | 3rd | 4th | 3rd |
| 1998 | Broncos | Won four | 18 | 5 (1 draw) | 2nd | 5th | 1st |
First off let’s look at all 18 premiers and see how they have navigated the first four rounds:
• Four were undefeated after four rounds (Storm 2012 and 2007, Brisbane 2000 and 1998)
• Six won three of their first four (Roosters 2013, Dragons 2010, Tigers 2005, Bulldogs 2004, Newcastle 2001 (includes a draw) and Melbourne 1999)
• Four won half of their first four (Manly 2011, Storm 2009, Manly 2008, Brisbane 2006
• Four were only victorious in one of their first four (Cowboys 2015, Rabbitohs 2014, Penrith 2003, Roosters 2002)
• No side during the NRL period has lost their first four games and gone on to win the premiership
So history says that if the Roosters, Warriors and Knights are to be any chance of raising the trophy in 2016 they’d better win this weekend.
The average table position each of the NRL premiers were in after Round 4 was sixth spot.
• Nine were in the top four
• Four were in positions 5-8
• Two were in positions 9-12
• Just three were in the bottom four (Cowboys 2015, Rabbitohs 2014 and Penrith 2003)
However, by Round 10 all but two of the NRL’s premiers (Rabbitohs 2014 and Tigers 2005) were in the top eight. In fact, 12 of them were in the top four.
No side has been lower than tenth spot after Round 10 and won the premiership.
And as we know, no side has won the NRL premiership if it didn’t finish the home-and-away season in the top four.
The average win-loss result for each premier during the home-and-away season is 17 wins and seven losses.
The Broncos in 2006 and the Tigers in 2005 both lost ten games – the most by any premier. The Storm in 2007 only lost three matches all up, the best result that has been achieved – albeit one that is quite tainted.
So while these figures show a poor start can be recovered from, there are really only four instances of a team with a one in four record going on to glory and none at all where a side has lost all four.
It should follow then that a rotten start would put a side firmly in line for the wooden spoon and the stats do lend some weight to that.
| Year | Spoon | First four results | Won season | Lost season | Position after first four | Ladder position Round 10 | Final ladder position |
| 2015 | Knights | Won four | 8 | 16 | 1st | 10th | 16th |
| 2014 | Sharks | Lost four | 5 | 19 | 16th | 16th | 16th |
| 2013 | Eels | Lost three | 5 | 19 | 13th | 14th | 16th |
| 2012 | Eels | Lost four | 6 | 18 | 16th | 16th | 16th |
| 2011 | Titans | Lost three | 6 | 18 | 15th | 15th | 16th |
| 2010 | Cowboys (Storm) | Won two | 5 | 19 | 10th | 14th | 15th* |
| 2009 | Roosters | Won two | 5 | 19 | 10th | 15th | 16th |
| 2008 | Bulldogs | Won two | 5 | 19 | 8th | 14th | 16th |
| 2007 | Panthers | Won two | 8 | 16 | 6th | 14th | 16th |
| 2006 | Rabbitohs | Lost four | 3 | 21 | 14th | 15th | 15th |
| 2005 | Knights | Lost four | 8 | 16 | 15th | 15th | 15th |
| 2004 | Rabbitohs | Won two | 5 | 17 (2 draws) | 7th | 14th | 15th |
| 2003 | Rabbitohs | Lost four | 3 | 22 | 15th | 15th | 15th |
| 2002 | Rabbitohs (Bulldogs) | Won two | 5 | 20 | 10th | 11th | 14th* |
| 2001 | Panthers | Lost three | 7 | 19 | 14th | 13th | 14th |
| 2000 | Cowboys | Lost three | 7 | 19 | 12th | 14th | 14th |
| 1999 | Magpies | Lost four | 3 | 21 | 15th | 16th | 17th |
| 1998 | Magpies | Lost three | 4 | 20 | 13th | 18th | 20th |
*NOTE: The 2002 Bulldogs and 2010 Storm came last as a result of being stripped of points due to salary cap infractions. For the purpose of this statistical analysis I have included the side that finished with the least wins.
After the first four rounds of the season this was where the eventual spooners sat:
• Six were winless
• Five had only one win
• six had won two games
• none had won three games
• One – Newcastle in 2015 – had won all four
So Melbourne and Canberra seem highly unlikely to be the 2016 wooden spooner. However, the Roosters, Warriors and Knights would be very good chances to finish last.
The average table position of the eventual NRL wooden spooner after four rounds is 12th. This is how that breaks down:
• One – Newcastle in 2015 – was in top four
• Three were in positions five through eight
• Four were in positions nine through 12
• Ten were already in the bottom four
Once more the positioning of the teams after Round 10 is telling. By that point the average ladder position is 14th and just two teams are in positions nine through 12. The other 16 instances were all down in the bottom four.
So the stats show that while a great start doesn’t necessarily guarantee glory, a poor start is very hard to recover from and is invariably a good preliminary guide to the season’s form.
Golden points
Last Saturday I watched on in suspense as Sam Williams, Jarrod Croker and Trent Hodkinson managed to miss with a combined seven efforts to get their respective sides the points during ten minutes of extra time.
It seems to me that golden point has become about just that: field goals. The problem is that there are very few good proponents of the drop kick. As was clearly demonstrated during the Auckland Nines, most NRL players can drop the ball, and some can even kick it. However, very few can put both actions together effectively.
This would seem to be a necessary skill that is lacking as that single point is sometimes the most important – just ask the Cowboys.
Since the advent of golden point extra time in 2003, there have been 2589 NRL matches played. Of those, 91 went to extra time – 3.5 per cent.
• 13 finished as draws
• 12 were won by a penalty goal being scored
• 15 were won by a try being scored
• 51 were settled by field goal. That’s just over 65 per cent of all of the games decided by golden point that were won through an accurate drop kick.
If I were an NRL coach I’d be hiring someone like Dan Carter or Andrew Mertens to come and intensively teach my whole squad the apparently lost art.
Further, I might encourage the boys to attempt to score a try instead…
Another stat I’ve found is that the inception of golden point may have seen a rise in the number of matches that ended in a draw. As stated above, there have been 2589 NRL matches played in the golden point era and 91 were tied after 80 minutes.
In the equivalent number of seasons prior there were 2638 matches played but just 73 draws. That is one draw in every 36 games. Since 2003, there has been one game in every 28.5 games that have ended tied after normal time.
This suggests that sides may – just like football teams playing to get to a penalty shootout – not chance their arms like they once might have to snatch victory with the possibility of extra time still out there.
However, any student of military history will tell you that the greatest generals – men like Stonewall Jackson, Erwin Rommel and George Patton – audaciously strike for victory without pause.
So which teams are the best at golden point?
| Team | Golden point games | Win % | Won | Drawn | Lost |
| Panthers | 14 | 64% | 8 | 2 | 4 |
| Sharks | 16 | 53% | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| Bulldogs | 10 | 75% | 7 | 1 | 2 |
| Broncos | 13 | 65.5% | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| Rabbitohs | 14 | 64.5% | 7 | 4 | 5 |
| Cowboys | 13 | 58% | 7 | 1 | 5 |
| Raiders | 10 | 65% | 6 | 1 | 3 |
| Storm | 8 | 62.5% | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Roosters | 9 | 55.5% | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| Titans | 9 | 44.5% | 4 | 0 | 5 |
| Tigers | 15 | 27% | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| Warriors | 9 | 50% | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Eels | 13 | 31% | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| Dragons | 12 | 29% | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| Knights | 11 | 27% | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Sea Eagles | 6 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 4 |
The Panthers and Sharks have both won the most golden point matches with eight a piece. The Sharks and Tigers have played in the most golden point matches with 16 and 15 respectively.
The Bulldogs have only played in ten golden point matches but they have won seven of them to have the best success rate of 75 per cent. The Broncos, Rabbitohs, Panthers, Storm and Raiders have all won two-thirds of their golden point matches.
The Sea Eagles have played in the least of any side with just six to their name. Their success rate of just 25 per cent is also the worst. The Tigers, Knights, Dragons and Eels have all won under a third of their golden point matches.
Both the Warriors and the Broncos have three times played in games where no points were scored at all in the ten extra minutes. However, the Rabbitohs with four such events lead this stat.
The best individual finishers are Hodkinson, Clinton Schifcofske and Chris Sandow who won three extra-time thrillers for their sides with some pretty handy drop goal work.
Only 5.5 per cent of all of the golden point matches have occurred in finals series. The only grand final that has gone into golden point extra time was last year’s grand final.
I like golden point. I find it very exciting. However, I’d be lying if I said that this Raiders man wasn’t very happy with getting away with that draw last Saturday.