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Mitch Marsh should replace Watson as T20 opener

Is Mitch Marsh worth a gamble? (AAP Image/David Mariuz)
Roar Guru
25th March, 2016
13

For the last few days I’ve been painstakingly obsessing with the readily available bowling and batting statistics of Australia’s T20 squad. This was in part due to a recent article on The Roar discussing the benefits of all-rounders versus conventional batsman/bowlers.

While I am not ready to publish an article with my findings, there were some interesting questions raised.

Some of these included:

Are wickets something worth measuring statistically in an overall rating given that no team will ever likely be bowled out in a T20 game?

What is the sweet spot between average strike rate and balls faced?

Is there significant benefit to playing specialists over all-rounders?

I’m not sure that I have a conclusive answer on any of them. However, one thing is increasingly clear. In T20 cricket, just like ODI and Tests, specialists are king. Frontline bowlers and batsmen having a much greater impact then several all-rounders.

So how does that relate to Mitchell Marsh? Surely I must know that he’s an all-rounder famous for his power hitting right? Wouldn’t a player like that be better suited coming in at number six to accelerate the run rate?

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But that’s the dirty secret about Marsh as a T20 player. His numbers seem to indicate that he is far closer to a traditional batsman than many would suspect. He averages a strike rate of 120 while facing 18 balls an innings.

These numbers compare favourably to batsmen like Steve Smith (123 strike rate, 16.8 balls faced) and Jaques Kallis (112, 22.9) and even current opening batsman Shane Watson (138, 19) and Aaron Finch (133, 22) or David Warner (143 21), who’s accelerated strike rate can be attributed to more time spent batting during the power play.

So why should Marsh open when guys like Warner and Finch have better records? Because as a batsman Marsh can be a slow starter, but the longer he bats the more boundaries he hits. Opening the batting with Marsh allows him to get his eye in while guys like Usman Khawaja and whoever replaces Steve Smith at number three (Travis Head, Chris Lynn, Nic Maddinson etc) quickly accelerate the total.

Then Marsh’s power hitting can be at its most effective during the first ten overs. Plus as a fit tall guy with easy power, Marsh is unlikely to tire as quickly as some of the other options.

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