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Goal kicking could well be the greatest threat to the All Blacks’ success in the 2016 international season.
No matter what anyone says about the increasing necessity to play expansive rugby, the inclusion of a top goal kicker remains as essential as ever.
It’s that ability to take points whenever they are on offer, to extend a lead from five to eight to psychologically move away from your opponents at every opportunity, that makes goal kicking so important.
Not only that, but possessing a lethal goal-kicker forces the opposition to change the way they play, having to think twice about how they defend and contest at the breakdown in their own half. Ultimately, risk management becomes key in defence, which creates opportunities in itself for the attacking team.
For so many years the All Blacks were blessed with one of the best in the business, the one and only Dan Carter.
But Carter is no longer around, while Colin Slade is also plying his trade in France, meaning neither of the two contenders for the job – Aaron Cruden and Beauden Barrett – are natural goal kickers.
This could very well cost the All Blacks Tests in the coming years, and must be a real concern for selectors, particularly with the all-important Lions tour looming large in 2017.
Cruden and Barrett are similar to another supremely talented former All Blacks five-eighth, Carlos Spencer. Spencer was not a natural goal-kicker either and though he had his moments with the boot, he largely struggled for consistency.
What is concerning at the moment for the All Blacks is that like Spencer did for many years with Adrian Cashmore at the Blues, Cruden seems to have handed the full-time goal kicking duties at the Chiefs to Damian McKenzie. Without the duties at Super Rugby level, how can he possibly be expected to kick for the All Blacks?
Goal kicking is a natural skill, a player either inherently has it or they don’t. You can offer all the professional coaching in the world but transforming an unnatural kicker into a world-class marksman during their formative years is nigh on impossible.
Yes, players can hone their kicking, but they won’t ever maintain this accuracy year in, year out. Unfortunately for the All Blacks, both Barrett and Cruden fall into this category.
A quick glance at statistics over previous seasons shows Cruden has been the more able goal kicker of the two. In 2012, Cruden kicked at an impressive 78 per cent in Super Rugby, however he hasn’t been able to consistently match that figure.
Many may point out that the All Blacks continued to dominate throughout Carter’s numerous injury absences during the 2012-15 period. They did, but that doesn’t mean they will continue to win the tight games without an out-and-out goal kicker.
I have a distinct memory of watching as the All Blacks beat England on the 2014 end-of-year tour. The Kiwis were all over England in the second half, yet both Cruden and Barrett missed incredibly simple shots at goal in quick succession and with it the chance to put the game to bed.
To his credit, Cruden did nail that touchline conversion in the famous win over Ireland in 2013, but at this level hot-and-cold performances with the boot just aren’t good enough.
In the final ten minutes of last year’s World Cup final, the All Blacks led the Wallabies by seven. A penalty was awarded to New Zealand 47 metres out and on the angle, and Dan Carter stepped up to kick the goal, thus moving the All Blacks past that crucial, psychological, one-score barrier.
Would Cruden or Barrett have nailed that goal? A big question mark remains.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.