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Yep, no more off-field soap-operas this week. That’s not to say the #BoldandtheBrumbies saga is resolved; oh, Lordy, no.
But it’s just that I’ve got to the point where I’m sick of talking about it. Besides that, there are much better things happening within the game itself that are more deserving of our Friday pre-rugby weekend discussion.
Like for one, why aren’t everyone’s favourite team, the Sunwolves, playing again? Talk about poorly timed byes! And are the Jaguares and Kings so scared of winning that a draw is a decent chance in Buenos Aires? (Paying about 75-1, if you agree).
Nevertheless, here are the talking points for Round 10.
High stakes in the Australian conference
The closeness of the Australian top three, and the implications for the Rebels, Brumbies and Waratahs by the June internationals, never mind the playoffs, are such that this weekend has a bit of a ‘must win’ feel about it for all three teams.
The Rebels were towelled up in Auckland in the pre-season, but their return trip marks one of those games that a conference -leading team should not just win, but win well. Tony McGahan has been able to name a minimally changed side to face the Blues, losing prop Laurie Weeks during the week, but able to promote Jamie Hagan to the starting side. Combinations are coming along nicely, but they need to take another big step forward and prove that they’re worthy conference leaders.
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The Brumbies aren’t quite so blessed, losing Joe Tomane for upwards of ten weeks, and confirmation yesterday that their captain Stephen Moore won’t play against the Highlanders down in Invercargill. There is some good news, with the return of David Pocock, but the naming of a 6-2 bench gives us a decent indication of where the Brumbies see the best way of the beating the reigning champions.
The Waratahs have lost young flanker Jack Dempsey to a shoulder injury, replacing him on the side of the scrum with Dean Mumm in an otherwise unchanged side. Otherwise unchanged? Doesn’t that mean…?
Yes. Yes, it does. It means that Dave Dennis stays at lock and he’ll run out for his 100th Super Rugby match in the No.4 jersey. Whether the logical jumper swap happens between now and Sunday morning AEST remains to be seen, but you’d think that at Newlands, against a very mobile and often slightly mad Stormers pack, that the Waratahs would need all the breakdown presence they can muster. Even if it’s a close-run thing, I think Dennis gives you more around the field, just as Mumm gives you more in the lineout.
But whatever the combinations, and however they do it, all three teams just need to win. There’s no more important games for these three sides this season.
Could the Reds actually be building something?
All the headlines were about their last quarter fade out against the Stormers last weekend, a repeat of what happened against the Bulls the weekend before. In both cases, the Reds were within striking distance inside the second half – they even led against the Stormers – leading to perhaps inevitable questions about their fitness and their ability to close out games.
And there might be some truth in that, but the lack of experience can’t be completely ruled out either.
Regardless, the fact that they were able to get back into both games in the Republic, and that they were able to jump out to a solid lead against the Highlanders before the tour tells me that there is a nice level of belief growing within the young Reds squad at the moment.
The next big test will be to do all that in front of their home crowd, for 80 minutes, against a team that is just above them on the table, but which they really shouldn’t have any trouble beating. The results have been there in patches, now it’s time to show they can put it together. And then the planning for 2017 can begin in earnest.
Must-win game for the Bulls, too
Everyone’s picked the Bulls this weekend, with the Force largely friendless aside from the obligatory tips from family. And the Bulls, in a wildcard spot, should have no trouble with the Force, currently 17th, right?
Well…
Over the history of Super Rugby, the Bulls record against the Force is only just positive; five wins and four losses. The record in Perth is two wins and three losses, including losses in the last two clashes in the west, in 2014 and 2011.
And the Bulls need to win, too, because a loss to the Force coupled with a Waratahs loss in Cape Town would mean the Bulls would be upwards of ten points behind the Stormers in Africa 2. And recalling that I outlined how the Lions are very close to wrapping up Africa 1, a Bulls loss in Perth means we could be maybe a week away from the two South African home quarter-finals being locked in.
So suddenly the Bulls’ task isn’t so easy. There’s genuine pressure at play, and pressure can do funny things to teams in Perth at the start or end of tours. Ask the Crusaders…
So five Australian wins, then?
Well, why not!
If the top three teams have to win, and the Reds are good enough and starting to play as a team well enough to win well at home, why couldn’t the Force complete the set?
(That’s rhetorical. I think we all know the obvious answer…)
Will Sinclair mentioned yesterday that his five-leg un-Australian local-teams-don’t-deserve-my-wager snub-multi was going to pay around 10-1. I asked the question at the time, but a later look yesterday myself had the five Australian teams paying $107.92 (assuming I’ve done it right, and that’s no guarantee).
If you’re feeling even slightly more patriotic than Will – and let’s face it, it wouldn’t be hard – then there’s a decent windfall to be had. And if the Sunwolves could pull off the unlikely last weekend, then why not?
(That’s not an endorsement, by the way. Bet responsibly. Seriously.)
Neutral referees by stealth?
So here’s something I’ve noticed in the last few weeks. It might be nothing, but it could be something.
The talk around the need for neutral referees has been as present this season as it’s ever been, but it seems that we have been seeing a decent spattering of neutral appointments over the last month or so.
SANZAAR would never come out and announce that they are going back to how they used to appoint referees; that would be an admission that the official line of ‘merit-based appointments’ had flaws. But I do wonder if we are seeing a bit of a shift in the thinking, even if it’s by stealth.
In the first four rounds, there were fourteen ‘international’ matches – that is, two teams from different countries. Of those, only five of them had a referee from a neutral country appointed.
In Round 5, three of the four international games had neutral refs, and New Zealander Ben O’Keeffe had an Australian derby. In Round 7, it was three of six, and in Round 8 it was three of five. Last week, it was four of six.
This weekend, all eight games are ‘internationals’, and three of them feature neutral referees. South African Craig Joubert has the Blues-Rebels in Auckland; he’s been in New Zealand for three weeks now, and as a neutral ref in all three matches. Since Round 5, 16 neutral referees have been appointed in 34 international matches.
Now, like I said, it might be nothing. But the evidence of the appointments over the course of the season to date indicates that there could be something in this. And if it is something, then SANZAAR deserve due credit.
Enjoy your weekend of rugby.