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We’ve suspected it for a while, and now it seems all but certain. After Port Adelaide’s upset loss to the Fremantle Dockers yesterday, the top eight for 2016 is set in stone.
Yes, mathematically still just about anything could happen. However it’s now very difficult indeed to make a case for any of the sides from the bottom ten pushing one of the sides from the top eight out.
These eight sides have appeared to be the best eight sides in the competition for much of the year, and it took less than a month of football for predictions to start being made that this would be our final eight.
And what a brilliant final eight it looks like, eh? This year’s finals series is already shaping up to be one of the best in recent memory. Every potential match-up is mouth-watering.
At the start of the season it looked like the race for the eight would be a very tight one this year – but the falling away of teams like Richmond and Fremantle, and the failure to rise of Collingwood and Port Adelaide has left us with a pretty clear divide between the best and the worst.
The close of this round will most likely see a two-win gap formed between eighth and ninth and while some teams in the lower half of the eight will have a game in hand given we’ve just entered the bye rounds, it just doesn’t seem likely that any will bridge that gap.
For the most part, there is just too little consistency in the bottom ten teams to believe that any of them could mount a series charge for finals.
The likes of Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda while impressive at times are all week-to-week propositions.
Collingwood and Richmond are both just far too poor far too often to be any real chance of cracking in, and while excuses can be made, they must surely be considering their senior coach options.
Fremantle’s good form has come too late, and Gold Coast, Brisbane and Essendon are all too woefully bad to be even marginally relevant.
And what of the team whose loss yesterday looks to be the final blow for any hopes of a September shake-up? Port Adelaide have looked good at times this year, but usually only at home, and usually only against low-ranking opposition.
They coughed up a golden chance to get a ground-breaking win last week when they fell to the Western Bulldogs by three points, but that disappoinment is nothing compared to the poor effort they dished up yesterday, going down to Fremantle – who started their year with ten consecutive losses – by 17 points.
While Fremantle have improved and and had the home ground advantage there’s no doubting it’s a game that, with the talent on their list, Port should be winning and winning well.
They can’t possibly hope to be a finals side in this increasingly competitive league if they are going to regularly flunk these opportunities to bank four points.
It wasn’t their biggest loss of the year in terms of margin but it was no doubt as disappointing to the club as any other defeat they’ve suffered this year, and patience must be beginning to wear thin.
Take a look, for example, at the post-game reaction from a club legend in Warren Tredrea, clearly fed up with the team’s performances this year:
No Finals – now @pafc must trade hard & improve this underperforming list, too inconsistent. Tough decisions need to be made.
— Warren Tredrea (@warrentredrea) June 18, 2016
Don't need to be out of contract to be traded – other clubs would offer good picks to get hands on some of players. https://t.co/jQx67B6SvJ
— Warren Tredrea (@warrentredrea) June 18, 2016
His premiership teammate Kane Cornes wasn’t feeling too cheerful after the match either:
Season over ?
— Kane Cornes (@kanecornes) June 18, 2016
So where to from here for Port Adelaide? They’ve taken a few big steps back from being the exciting, skillful team that came within a kick of playing in the 2014 grand final.
Something that should be really concerning for them is that they’ve traded their last three first-round draft picks away for Jared Polec (dropped this week), Paddy Ryder (suspended) and Charlie Dixon (good, but not making the difference). There’s no recent generation of high-drafted talent ready to lift this team in 2016 and beyond.
For mine, I believe Port Adelaide still have the potential to be a finals regular, even premiership contender, over the next few years. They’re still gaining maturity, still developing some of the talent on their list – players like Ollie Wines and Chad Wingard are still in the beginning stages of their careers, and Port won’t lose more than a few key players to retirement before the end of the decade.
They’ve come a long way since being the AFL’s resident laughing stock in 2011 and 2012, and while recent times have no doubt been frustrating, progress isn’t always linear and if they believe in what they’ve done over the last few years, they should back themselves in and keeping working hard until their fortunes change.
With that in mind, the key thing is that they stick together – as their scarves say, “Never tear us apart”. Frustration can breed contempt, but the club will fail to achieve success if they fall to bickering and playing the blame game. A united front is needed is this side is going to produce the performances they’re capable of.
That’s my view on Port Adelaide, Roarers, but what’s yours? And do you agree with me that the top eight is now locked in? What September match-ups are you most looking forward to? Let me know in the comments below.