The Sharks are on a tear, 13-2 on the season, with their last 12 wins coming consecutively. Streak anyone?
For some historical perspective, Cronulla are beginning to enter unchartered waters (pun not intended). Thirteen wins would sit them in exclusive company, home to the fourth best single-season streak in the game’s history. Impressive.
Their competition? Ahead sits the the 1932 Souths (14), 1995 Sea-Eagles (15) and if they dare to dream, the 1975 Roosters (19!). At this rate, teams will be placing calls to Mick Fanning for some protection.
All well and good, but Cronulla fans and management alike, please consider the following.
Paul Gallen and Chris Heighington are 34, Luke Lewis and Michael Ennis 32, James Maloney 30. A slew of important role players are some very well travelled veterans with miles on the legs. Additionally, Andrew Fifita, Wade Graham and Greg Bird, while younger, have (or will) played origin, known to put some heavy fatigue on anyone.
With their sights sitting firmly on capturing the title, it is heading towards the crucial stage of the season for contenting teams. If the stakes weren’t high enough, teams with streaks are a rather fascinating case in pursuit of the premiership
It is not to say that there is a specific threshold of win-loss ratio or consecutive wins that predicts whether or not a good, or great side can continue on the path to capture the title.
However, it is absolutely fair to suggest that the deeper a team gets into a streak, the stakes placed on each individual fixture continue to rise. Teams begin to double down their efforts to end the wins, and the hot team puts in the 1 per cent to scrap out tight victories.
What is apparent, is maybe that one per cent is better spent in September, and not chasing a regular season, club or league record.
There is a simple conundrum forming. Go full throttle, keep winning and chase history or risk pushing to hard to keep the streak alive and possibly burn their players out for when it matters most.
Historically, it is accurate to say that mid-year form does indicate post-season performance, but winning streaks most certainly do not. Don’t agree, read ahead.
Dragons 2009
Won seven straight mid-year, a streak that ended in Round 23. Aside from a Round 26 win, the Minor premiers failed to win another game and found themselves eliminated in week two of the finals.
The 2009 Dragons failed under the McIntyre system, which benefits the higher seeded team by having them play the eighth placed team, the Sharks won’t have that luxury. They will need to match up week one against either side third or fourth, potentially starring down the Cowboys, Broncos or Raiders in week one.
Melbourne 2011
Won 12 straight, the tipping point coming the week prior in a tight contest with a strong, and typically scrappy Dragons outfit. They rebounded and picked up a win in their qualifying final, however looked sluggish and couldn’t get over the top of Sean Johnson’s in-form Warriors and missed the grand final.
Bulldogs 2012
The first year of the Des’ Dogs era, the Bulldogs won 12 straight, quite a few coming in close encounters, through the middle third of the season. They went on to make the grand final, failing to get the job done against the second-placed Storm. While this was a decently young team, they ran out of legs after a strong regular season and fell one step short.
Need more evidence?
Roosters 2015
Sitting mid-table with a very average 6-6 record half way through the competition (round 13) the Roosters caught fire winning their final 12 games and 15 of their final 16 games to finish atop the table.
Once the post season rolled around, the Roosters looked out-matched dropping two of their three finals games and watching the grand final from home.
There is also various examples of teams managing this stage of the season well, something the Cronulla squad should learn from.
No coincidence, in 09′ Bennett listed ‘getting the momentum wrong’ as one of the reasons his squad couldn’t get the job done. Master Bennett learnt his lesson, and the St George squad altered their run, won their last five games to end 2010 and lifted the premiership the following season
Melbourne 2012 – Won their first nine, and 12 of the first 14
The storm then lost five straight games following the blazing start, costing them the minor premiership to the aforementioned Bulldogs. In leu of the loosing streak, the Storm rounded out the year with five wins, finished second and followed that up with three wins in the finals, going on to lift the Provan-Summons in October.
All the talk through late-June and July was how the Storm’s run had ended, teams had figured them out, and there stars weren’t burnt out following the Origin period. No one remembers that, the losing streak or the torrid starts the Storm were unable to recover from over that period.
It was all voided by a premiership. This may hold the strongest of parallels to this year’s Sharks. Need more evidence?
Roosters 2013
Won eight on the trot, but eased into the finals and lost two of their last three. Readjusted, and four wins later – Premiers.
Two prime examples took place just last season – the Broncos and the Cowboys.
Broncos 2015 had a sizeable win streak, taking out eight contests mid-year. Despite finishing second they weren’t considered a strong chance to go all the way, many citing their form – only winning two of their final six games. They outlasted eventual champion Cowboys and the heavily favoured Roosters, beating the home-field advantage and coming within literally one second and some Michael Morgan magic of being champions.
Behind one of the greatest individual seasons in history from their leader, JT’s 2015 Cowboys rebounded from an 0-3 start to win 11 straight, and come Round 22 were victorious in 15 of their last 16.
They stumbled home losing two of their last five and were beat in week one by the higher-seeded Broncos. With plenty in the tank, they turned it around, two wins later and they made no mistake in a rematch, even adding a few highlights you may have seen.
The Sharks may just continue to win, simultaneously chasing history and a maiden premiership, defying the odds every step to the top. Precedence is usually a fair indicator to make a prediction and it can be seen that teams have struggled to juggle this double edged sword, most of them loosing out before they have a chance to defy said history.
The Sharks have a rather smooth schedule coming up, and to be frank, in comparison to others their remaining games are rather friendly, only two of their last nine coming against current playoff teams.
Games against the Panthers and Titans separated by the lowly Knights and Roosters outfits leave with a very good opportunity to consolidate their spot on the table and begin to focus in. They remain in clear water (again, not intended) for the time being, but each of the teams who had significant regular season streaks are all united by a game or string of games that came to their eventual unraveling.
To clarify, this is not to say that the Sharks need to lose another game, or necessarily have to take any caution to the growing fatigue of their players. The facts however suggest that maybe there is a legitimate benefit from taking a look at the scheduling and how they may approach the rest of the season.
If we’re being honest, Cronulla are unlike any of the other examples, a premiership for this club, their maiden title, after everything they’ve overcome would be simply amazing.
Maybe the crowd shouldn’t be singing Up, Up Cronulla just yet, missing out now may make that final rendition much more fulfilling.
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