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The build-up is starting to intensify. The Lions have landed in New Zealand as they prepare for their first-ever Super Rugby final, whereas the Hurricanes will want to go one better than last year where they had their pockets picked by the Highlanders at the ‘Cake Tin’.
The Hurricanes are overwhelming favourites, having home field advantage, but the Lions have shown this season when they went to the Chiefs and won in Waikato that they can win in New Zealand.
There are many intriguing factors and battles across the field that will go a long way to determining the winner of this year’s competition. What it will be is a great game of rugby to watch.
The Weather
If you watched the preliminary finals, you would have seen the Hurricanes demolish the Sharks in atrocious conditions. The wind and rain was swirling all over the place.
The ‘Cake Tin’ that the Hurricanes call home is a notoriously tough place to play, not only for the opposition but with the elements involved as well.
At the same time, in Johannesburg, the Lions put the Crusaders to the sword in what was near-perfect conditions for their expansive running game.
They haven’t taken their first team out of Africa for months (they took a second string team to Argentina) and have been very lucky with the conditions. Should Wellington’s weather turn it on again, you would have to think the ‘Canes would be the far happier team.
Defence
This final is pitting two of the top three try-scoring teams up against each other. So far the Lions have scored 81 tries and the Hurricanes 70. Scoring points is not the problem for these teams – the key to winning this one will be who can stop the other.
This may well sound like an obvious comment, but a final normally contains two teams trying not to lose, playing for penalties and taking their points. That isn’t how either of these teams play. They look to score from almost everywhere.
The Hurricanes stopped the Chiefs (second top try scorers in the competition) from crossing the whitewash, but The Highlanders scored four against The Lions. This could be telling on Saturday.
Halfbacks
TJ Perenara and Beauden Barrett against Faf De Klerk and Elton Jantjies. This is one of those match-ups that makes rugby fans force non-rugby fans to watch the game.
These two sets of half backs are arguably the form players of the tournament that allow for their teams to be as expansive as they are. A lot has been made of Barrett’s recent performances, and rightly so.
He has put himself in prime position to be the All Black 10 at the upcoming Rugby Championship. His blistering pace and vision are complemented perfectly by the equally attacking Perenara.
They both look to attack from everywhere, and with Perenara being the top scorer in the competition last season, he also knows where the try line is.
De Klerk has been so good this season. He has come from nowhere to be the incumbent of the Springbok 9 Jersey. A very intelligent and busy player, he will certainly keep Perenara on his toes.
Jantjies is one of those rugby enigmas. He burst onto the scene among huge fanfare, but for all his undoubted talent there were question marks about his temperament and consistency.
After a couple of lost seasons at the Stormers, he is back home and his rugby is thriving. His man-of-the-match performance in the semi-final shows how far he has come to being a big game player.
His break from inside his 22 to set up Courtnall Skosan’s try shows what he is all about. His defence has come on leaps and bounds – this could be the stage that he thrives on.
Ardie Savea v Jaco Kriel
These men have two huge presences in the back row. Ardie Savea is, on current form, one of the best back rowers in world rugby. There is nothing he can’t do. He wins turnovers, makes bone-crunching hits and breaks the line almost at will.
His searing break in the first half against the Chiefs was scintillating. He offered a left foot sidestep and even put in a decent kick ahead. This was followed up by a monster hit on All Blacks teammate Aaron Cruden as he tried to escape his 22. A bit part player for the last couple of seasons has turned himself into one of the first names on the team sheet.
While Kriel may not have the pace or the same skill set as Savea, he is just as important and offers just as much to this Lions team.
The powerful 6 has seemingly endless energy and pops up all over the field. He was on the wing to collect a Jantjies cross-field kick to score against the Highlanders, and he was also the player that got back to tackle Matt Feddes in the corner when it looked for all money that the Highlanders centre was in.
That level of commitment is what will be needed on Saturday and one that we are guaranteed to see.
Centres
This is one area where the Lions have a clear advantage. Between them, Lionel Mapoe and Rohan Janse Van Rensburg have scored 19 tries.
Mapoe has been scoring tries for a couple of seasons now, but like a lot of this Lions team, Van Rensburg has only emerged this season. He has pace and power in abundance, and even when players get a hold of him he is very tough to bring down.
When Conrad Smith and Ma’a Nonu keft for France, they left a gaping hole in the midfield. Willis Halaholo and Matt Proctor have done a sterling job stepping into such big shoes.
Nonu and Smith’s strengths were their reading of the game and their defence, and it is no slight on Proctor and Halaholo when you say they are not quite up to that standard yet. They will need to be at the top of their game to stop the rampaging Lions midfield making their mark.
Of course there are other factors that will impact on who will win this game. Though the Hurricanes are the favourites, the Lions are more than in with a shot. This is a game that is worthy of a final. All there is left to do is to sit back and enjoy it.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.