Basketball is all about match-ups. Star power coincides, yet it is imperative that coaches are able to use the correct players at the correct times.
The player rotations the Australian Boomers will implement through the tournament will be important to claiming upsets and progressing to the medal rounds – hopefully!
Coach Andrej Lemanis has used rather controversial basketball philosophies throughout his tenure.
A ‘traditional’ coach by every stretch of the imagination, Lemanis has persisted with a conventional two big man starting up and being reluctant to play a small ball line-up.
Lemanis also enforces his system on his players rather than diversifying it to suit his personnel. Their qualifying matches against New Zealand highlighted this reluctance.
Starting centre Andrew Bogut, who is renowned for his passing skills and the elbow, was forced to play down in the low post and was used as a scorer. Ideals like this will result in Lemanis’ rotation being extremely different to what other basketball purists would implement.
Based off history and Australia’s warmup games the Boomers will likely start the following five:
PG – Patty Mills 30-35 minutes
SG – Matthew Dellavadova 30-35 minutes
SF – Joe Ingles 28-32 minutes
PF – Aron Baynes 25-30 minutes
C – Andrew Bogut 22-26 minutes (if healthy)
Question marks remain over Bogut’s health. He only played nine minutes in his only warmup match. If healthy, Bogut is undeniably the best option at Centre.
However, if he is unable to be fully fit which seems highly probable, Lemanis’ rotation will alter up front dramatically.
Below is the projected starting five without Bogut being able to play heavy, starter minutes:
PG – Patty Mills 30-35 minutes
SG – Matthew Dellavadova 30-35 minutes
SF – Joe Ingles 28-32 minutes
PF – David Andersen 20-25 minutes
C – Aron Baynes 28-30 minutes
David Andersen has been a starting five custodian over the past Olympics. His veteran experience and 3 point prowess will be essential to fill the hole that Bogut leaves.
His competition will be Brock Motum who has gained most of the starts in warm-up but has failed to provide consistent scoring (6.2 ppg on 29.2% shooting) or defence over the games. Regardless, both players will share the minutes at power forward barring any shakeups in which Australia goes small.
The bench has floundered in the warmup games. Without an elite level point guard to control the game, the bench lost direction and defensive focus. Throughout the Olympics with Patty Mills or Dellavadova will remain on court at all times. It is unlikely Australia use their full squad; with a nine man rotation most likely.
The Boomers do have skill specific guards that provide 3 point shooting and stout defence. The front court (with Bogut healthy) will also be very deep with great team defenders in abundance.
With Bogut healthy Lemanis’ rotation will likely feature the following:
6th man – Ryan Broekhoff 22-27 minutes
David Andersen 20-25 minutes
Chris Goulding 15-20 minutes
Cameron Bairstow 12-16 minutes
The smaller rotation features former NBA and current Euroleague players. The contingent will provide shooting and defence that should seamlessly fit into the current starting five. The four man bench rotation also ensures that a start remains on court at all times; a necessity for the team.
Although solid, Lemanis rotations are subtle and non-experimental. The traditional style won’t possess challenges to any top tier nations; an issues that was provoked against Lithuania and Brazil.
Reinvigorating their rotation (as mentioned below) would be a trick the Boomers could use in their group stages against nations such as France that play a small line-up.
With players such as Boris Diaw playing the 4 and potentially the 5 the Boomers have a line-up that will present great trouble:
PG – Patty Mills 30-35 minutes
SG – Matthew Dellavadova 30-35 minutes
SF – Ryan Broekhoff 26-28 minutes
PF – Joe Ingles 30-35 minutes
C – Andrew Bogut/Aron Baynes 22-24 minutes
The four out style would flourish with Bogut at centre. The Boomers would be able to adopt a spread offence, utilising Bogut’s passing strength at the elbow. Ingles’ length would present problems for Diaw and his underrated defensive skills in the post will annul any threats Diaw could possess.
Matching Baynes up against a secondary big as well will be lethal for Australia. His size and touch from mid range will be impossible to stop for young centres that have not come up against NBA quality centres.
Innovation like this would bring wonders to the Boomers Olympic campaign and could present a higher chance at stealing a medal.
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