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Swing bowler Jackson Bird should replace spinner Jon Holland for the third Test against Sri Lanka following the success of Australia’s pacemen in the first two matches.
The home batsmen more often than not have looked at ease against Australia’s spinners in this series and the Colombo pitch is not expected to offer tweakers more assistance than the surfaces at Galle and Kandy.
Most debates about selection have revolved around Australia’s top six, with Mitch Marsh, Usman Khawaja and Joe Burns all in the crosshairs. As I argued on Sunday, Australia would be wise to stick fast with their specialist batsmen, who served them so well over their eight Tests home and away last summer.
The only change necessary is to drop Holland for Bird. The left-arm spinner battled on debut at Galle, where the Sri Lankan batsmen showed him no respect. While he did bowl with some nice loop and drift at times, Holland looked rattled by the aggressive batting he encountered and as a result lost the accuracy that helped him earn his spot.
Rarely did he look threatening, even against the lower order. Holland also was unable to offer his captain Steve Smith even a modicum of control, delivering just one maiden as he went at a whopping 5.3 runs per over from his 25 overs.
The reality, as harsh as it sounds, is that Holland may never again be considered for Test selection – his cards could be marked after this performance. That might not be fair but cricket selectors can be spooked when a bowler wilts under pressure the way Holland did.
Look at Simon Kerrigan, who many pundits and fans in England consider the best red-ball spin prospect in the country. He was 24 years old and earmarked as England’s next long-term Test spinner when he made his debut in the 2013 Ashes.
England bowled 152 overs in that match. Kerrigan only delivered eight of them, banished from the attack after being clobbered by Shane Watson. The left-armer finished with 0-53, conceding eight boundaries, and has never been seen again in any format at international level.
Although he has continued to perform solidly in county cricket, and incumbent Test spinner Moeen Ali has averaged more than 50 with the ball in the past year, Kerrigan doesn’t seem to be in contention for Test selection. There’s a sense that the Australian selectors have been similarly spooked by the way Fawad Ahmed struggled in the tour games he played in England and the Caribbean last year.
In Australia’s opening match of the Ashes tour of England last year, Ahmed went at six runs per over across his 26 overs against Kent, a division two County team. A few months earlier in the Caribbean, Ahmed returned match figures of 2-144 against the weak batting line-up of the West Indies Cricket Board President’s XI.
Despite being clearly the second-best spinner in Sheffield Shield cricket, after Steve O’Keefe, over the past three years, Ahmed was overlooked when O’Keefe went down injured at Kandy. His unsightly failures on the Caribbean and England tours likely played a major part in his non-selection.
Holland suffered the ignominy of his flop coming on the bigger stage of a Test match, and one which involved a humiliating loss for his team. This will live long in the memory of the selectors and could, wrongly or rightly, count heavily against Holland in the future.
There is no doubt that he should not be picked to play at Colombo. If the Sri Lankans feasted on him at Galle, which long has been a prosperous hunting ground for spinners, he will be even more vulnerable on the traditionally batting-friendly wicket at the Sinhalese Sports Club.
This ground has been the scene of some incredibly high scoring, including the 2010 Test between Sri Lanka and India in which 1478 runs were scored for the loss of just 17 wickets.
More recently, the Tests at SSC have been lower-scoring and fast bowlers have played a major part. In the last Test at the ground, between India and Sri Lanka in 2015, 27 wickets were taken by the quicks, compared to just 12 by spinners.
At Colombo, Australia must play to their strengths and select a third frontline quick to support Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.
The Australian new-ball pair have been superb over the first two Tests, combining for 24 wickets at an average of 15, having had the hosts at least two wickets down within the first six overs of each of Sri Lanka’s four innings.
Even more impressive has been the reverse swing that they and all-rounder Mitch Marsh have been able to conjure, sometimes as early as 25 overs into the Sri Lankan innings. That trio have not only troubled the hosts far more consistently than Australia’s spinners, but also have been able to build pressure with tight spells.
This is Bird’s specialty. He plays on the batsmen’s patience with his unerring line and length. While Australia’s batting manifestly is the problem, it won’t hurt to pick the best possible attack at Colombo.
Bird has earned the right to play ahead of the other reserve paceman, Nathan Coulter-Nile. The West Australian is a more dynamic bowler, yet is seemingly better suited to swifter, bouncier wickets like the ones on which he has learnt his trade at the WACA.
We may well have seen the last of Holland in the baggy green. But Colombo could offer Bird the opportunity to prove he can flourish in Asian conditions, in the process booking himself a spot on the Test tour of India in six months’ time.