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Hawthorn’s chances of achieving an historic fourth consecutive premiership have dropped dramatically after last night’s disappointing 26-point loss to the West Coast Eagles in Perth.
Less than two weeks ago the Hawks’ loss to Melbourne was the ‘loss they needed to have’, one that would kick them back into peak form in time for a flag run.
Their response against North Melbourne in the following round seemed to suggest that. But they were only dominant in the first quarter of that game, albeit incredibly so.
Come Friday night, they had already run out of steam again, it seems, and this team that has so often impressed us with it’s supreme mental ability was found wanting again, twice in three weeks now.
It was quite reminiscent of last year’s qualifying final, played between the same sides in the same arena, with much the same result. And after that game, I wrote an article – ‘Was that the end of the Hawthorn era?’
I’m fully aware of the risks attached with writing another one on the same topic now. Last time around the Hawks bounced back in a big way and took out their third flag. This time, it’s not on the cards.
Ladder position is incredibly vital from here – and it appears likely that Hawthorn will not finish any higher than fourth, assuming all three of Sydney, Adelaide and Geelong manage to win their final two games of the year.
Although the top four is often touted a the place from which you can win a premiership, that is something of a myth. Since the current finals system was installed around the turn of the millenium, no team has won it from any lower than third.
The Hawks, should they finish in fourth, would almost certainly face a trip interstate for a qualifying final in their first week of the finals – to Adelaide or Sydney, depending on the results both teams record from here on out.
There is a slim chance that they’d play Geelong in Melbourne, but the Cats would need to have a serious percentage boost over the final two weeks to make that happen (the Cats play Brisbane and Melbourne in the last two weeks, so don’t write it off).
Given their poor effort on an interstate trip last night, that feels like a task that might be too tough for them. They’re most likely good enough to knock off whoever they would then meet in a semi-final, but after that they’d have a prelim likely to once again be an interstate trip against whichever of the Crows or Swans they didn’t play in the qualifier.
This is all getting a bit long range, and there are still a few things that could upset the apple cart.
Adelaide could cop a shock Showdown loss – it wouldn’t be the first time. Sydney could cough one up to North Melbourne in Hobart today. Geelong could fall to a high-flying Melbourne in the third round. If all those things happened, Hawthorn could still finish top!
By no means am I writing off the Hawks at this stage. But, the odds are well and truly against them. So what are the odds in favour of?
Well, first a quick note about West Coast – they’ve really turned themselves around in the past two weeks, and a home elimination final against the Western Bulldogs or North Melbourne seems likely, and they’d be heavily favoured to win either.
However, at the same time as their season seemed to finally flicker with the flame of life, it was snuffed out by what may prove to be a serious long-term injury for Nic Naitanui. It’s no coincidence that their form boost has come at the same time as his return to the team, so fingers crossed that it proves to be less severe than we worry it might be.
The Hawks also copped a bad knee injury to a ruckman in Jonathan Ceglar, and while Ceglar is no Nic Naitanui, his absence will mean Ben McEvoy needs to be virtually the sole ruck, leading to yet another forward-line re-shuffle at a time when the Hawks would really like to have a settled line-up.
If Nic Nat doesn’t pull up in time to play finals though we can almost certainly rule out those teams fifth to eighth of having any chance of pulling something out of their hats – and a fourth-placed Hawthorn, as already discussed, looks vulnerable.
That leaves arguably the three best teams of the year – Adelaide, Sydney and Geelong – in the mix for the flag.
My tip at the moment is that the Crows and the Swans, not necessarily in that order, will finish in the top two spots of the ladder, and then ride the home ground advantage through finals all the way to the grand final – giving us our first all-interstate grand final in ten years.
From there, it’s anyone’s guess – Sydney probably the favourites due to having been there before in recent years, not to mention their wealth of talent in the midfield – oh, and that Lance Franklin guy. But the Crows could surprise.
That’s not to say of course that the Dangerwood Cats – sorry, Geelong Cats – couldn’t knock off either team on the road in finals (or at home, should the ladder positions fall that way) and make it to the big dance themselves. And if they do, they’re again a team you’d favour to win, given the wealth of premiership experience in their 22.
That’s how the lay of the land looks to me after what might be a season-defining game last night, Roarers. What do you think?