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In June last year the New Zealand Black Caps finished off a 199 run win at Headingly, leveling a cracking series with England, 1-1.
Aside from the result, it was the manner of the performance that provided cause for optimism; here were two very good sides, evidently near the top of the tree of Test-playing nations, playing high quality cricket.
New Zealand fans, starved of success through years of false promises and limp performances, perked up, and looked forward to the home-and-away series with Australia with – if not outright confidence – certainly a high degree of optimism.
Just over a year later, reality has kicked in.
Even allowing for being on the wrong side of a couple of pivotal umpiring errors, and entering the first Test in Brisbane patently under-prepared for Test cricket, the Black Caps were exposed as being short of elite class, and lacking depth in all departments of the game.
All of this by an Australian side clearly with a fragility of its own, particularly when playing away from home.
A home series win against Sri Lanka was welcome but more or less what was expected, and two tests against Zimbabwe nothing more than contested net practice and a chance for players to ramp their averages up a few notches.
So despite nodding agreement from pundits that South Africa was a team in decline, here was a realistic opportunity, in South Africa, for the Black Caps to test themselves again. To get a proper handle if you like, on where they really sit.
On the evidence of 1.25 Test matches – enough to qualify as a series these days – the prognosis isn’t good. The Black Caps are in a hole and seem to be digging themselves deeper.
To be fair, the disappointment in Durban was less about them than the ridiculous situation of one heavy rain-shower killing off the whole Test match. Although at 14 for 2, the portents weren’t good for the batting to come in the second Test.
In winning the toss at Centurion, skipper Kane Williamson was presented with Hobson’s choice; batting first and fourth were always going to be difficult propositions, it was like choosing the best worst option.
In the end, it was a green tinge and the too recent scars of being bowled out for 45 batting first in 2013, which made Williamson’s mind up for him. But with day one ending with South Africa at 283 for 3, the Test was as good as over.
Comparisons between the bowling attacks are stark. Figures are for New Zealand, three completed innings; South Africa, two completed innings plus 12 overs. (Noting that conditions were generally bowler friendly);
Southee; 74 overs, 240 runs, 5 wickets
Boult; 70 overs, 203 runs, 5 wickets
Bracewell; 53 overs, 170 runs, 3 wickets
Wagner; 64 overs, 151 runs, 9 wickets
Santner; 25 overs, 84 runs, 3 wickets
Steyn; 42 overs, 102 runs, 10 wickets
Philander; 35 overs, 99 runs, 4 wickets
Rabada; 29 overs, 116 runs, 5 wickets
Peidt; 19 overs, 88 runs, 2 wickets
The vaunted New Zealand swing bowlers got nice movement, in the air and off the seam and in general, didn’t bowl badly. But they struggled to consistently pressure the Proteas batsmen – a recurring theme in recent times.
All three swing bowlers suffered by comparison to Wagner who, although he only bowls in the mid 130’s, has the ability to bowl a hurtful short ball. The fact that he also was able to get some swing, to complement his short-pitched attack, made him a constant threat.
The reality is that, without troubling pace, penetration and consistency, the top end of the New Zealand attack once again looks – as it did against Australia – vanilla and limited.
By contrast, Dale Steyn, apparently over the hill, looked anything but in wrecking the New Zealand top order. What impressed most however weren’t his wicket taking balls, but that there were so many other potential wicket taking balls, one after another, on the money.
It was a similar story for Vernon Philander, and same again for the impressive Kagiso Rabada, who regularly hit the bat at close to 150 kilometres per hour.
The reality for New Zealand is thus; they have a good attack, better than good when pitch and overheads conditions suit. But if they want to climb into the upper echelon of Test nations they need to find other alternatives, players capable of maintaining intense pressure on batsmen, instead of the occasional wicket taking ball.
When the best performer over the last year is a second change bowler, bowling – let’s face it – pretty ugly leg theory, then something needs to give.
For those wondering who those alternatives are, Matt Henry was the unused fast bowler on this tour, and the man who does actually have world class pace, Adam Milne, is not considered to be robust enough for Test cricket. For anyone else, write your own ticket.
In the batting, New Zealand’s regular Achilles heel, the opening partnership, once again collapsed under the weight of expectation and excellent South African bowling.
By now everyone knows the enigma that Martin Guptill has become. Averaging 43.25 in ODIs and now, after scores of 8, 0, and 7 here, averaging 29.59 from 44 Tests, he continues to torment fans; results not matching his undoubted ability.
Tom Latham’s place is more secure, despite a miserable return of 4, 0, and 4, averaging 38.85 in 22 Tests. He copped a bizarre decision from third umpire Richard Illingworth and, unlike his partner, is showing the ability to improve with experience.
Ross Taylor ran himself out to short leg – one of those brain fades he comes up with every now and then – and then received an unplayable worm-burner from Steyn that nobody could have kept out. Just one of those matches.
Williamson was customary class in the first innings, even if hampered by South Africa offering him easy singles to get him off strike as early as five wickets down. His biggest issue, ahead of the upcoming series in India, is a tender finger, that received a decent belting in both innings.
It’s still early days for Henry Nicholls, not yet appealing as a reliable Test No. 5, but who showed plenty of ticker in accumulating 36 and 76, the latter on a rapidly deteriorating pitch.
With BJ Watling batting at No. 6, this means that New Zealand have decreed Mitchell Santner to be a bowling all-rounder rather than a lower middle order batsman who bowls. India is an important opportunity for him to show that he can indeed cut it as a front line bowler at Test level.
The batsman not used in Africa is the uncapped Jeet Raval, an opener with a solid first class record. He is almost 28, and while that is late in the day to be making a Test debut, one expects that he will be given his chance in India, his place of birth.
Still off the scene are all-rounders Corey Anderson and Jimmy Neesham; quality cricketers still on the NZCC’s list of 21 contracted players, but seemingly perennially crocked.
The Black Caps may actually find India a relief after this tough little visit to South Africa. Certainly they do not have the same sub-continent phobia that Australia does, and will fancy being able to fashion some better starts at the top of the order.
But the reality is that they have only one standout world-class player in Williamson, another close to that mark in Taylor, and Watling, who measures up well against most international glove-men.
Beyond that, the side is full of good players who need conditions to be in their favour, or young players still looking to find their feet in Test cricket. Plus a handful of others who remain frustratingly inaccessible, unable to get into the right condition to play Test cricket.
The Black Caps have gone south since last year’s tour of England. Sure, they are missing Brendon McCullum’s assuredness and lower order runs. But while they are clearly trying hard, it seems that they are succeeding only in reinforcing their frailties and shortcomings.
The India Test series starts in Kanpur on September 22nd. It is a pivotal series for them; one where bowlers like Boult and Southee must prove once and for all that they are genuine, wicket taking opening bowlers, and where any number of batsmen must step up and score heavy runs, to provide Williamson with genuine support.