- Video
-
Club Roar
Captured a great grassroots sporting moment? We want to see it!Content Collections
The Roar Community
- Join
- Login
Elimination finals are a harsh game of footy and it won’t get much harsher than the meeting between the West Coast Eagles and the Western Bulldogs at Domain Stadium, which kicks off the finals series on Thursday night.
A loss for either of these sides doesn’t just mean elimination but also means an off-season of disappointment with both teams probably expecting at the start of the year that they would go further than a first-week finals exit.
The Eagles, of course, were last year’s runners-up and would have gone into the season hoping to go one better and win a flag – at the very least they would have hoped for a top-four finish. Those dreams both seem a little unlikely at this stage but they can at least keep themselves in the running with a win here.
» The Roar’s comprehensive guide to the 2016 AFL Finals
The Bulldogs, on the other hand, were knocked out at this same stage last year, losing an absolute thriller of a match against the Adelaide Crows at Etihad Stadium. They’ve been so impressive over the past two years and would really love to have a finals win to show for it.
The seasons of both sides have had some significant twists and turns. The Eagles were one of the most disappointing sides in the league for much of the year, but they have really managed to turn it round in the last month with wins over GWS, Hawthorn and Adelaide – two of those on the road.
They seem to have rediscovered a bit of that physicality and pressure that made them an excellent team in 2015, allowing them to deny their opponents space and in doing so create turnovers the allow them to dominate the game.
That will be an interesting clash of styles with the Western Bulldogs who like to do quite a bit of the same thing, playing a game based around suffocating pressure on the ball-carrier, dominance in the contested ball, and excellent kicking skills.
However while the Eagles are coming into this match in their hottest form of the season, the Bulldogs are at a low ebb – they’ve accumulated injuries during the year like it’s going out of style, and it has hampered their ability to really be competitive.
In the last six matches of the AFL season they’ve gone a 3-3 record, with losses to St Kilda, Geelong and Fremantle. Their wins came over non-finals sides Essendon and Collingwood (by only 3 points), and a fellow top-eight team with similar injury issues in North Melbourne.
The good news for the Bulldogs is that they have regained a number of injured stars this week. However, bringing these players back into the side for a do-or-die game without any VFL-level prep time is a roll of the dice that, as much as it could wildly succeed, could just as easily backfire.
Last five matches
Round 11, 2016 – Western Bulldogs 12.11.83 defeated West Coast Eagles 11.9.75 – Etihad Stadium
Round 21, 2015 – West Coast Eagles 25.12.162 defeated Western Bulldogs 13.7.85 – Domain Stadium
Round 1, 2015 – Western Bulldogs 14.13.97 defeated West Coast Eagles 14.3.87 – Etihad Stadium
Round 1, 2014 – West Coast Eagles 21.8.134 defeated Western Bulldogs 11.3.69 – Domain Stadium
Round 18, 2013 – Western Bulldogs 16.5.111 defeated West Coast Eagles 13.11.89 – Etihad Stadium
Team news
The Eagles have made only a single change in this match – former Swan Lewis Jetta will miss because of a calf injury, and Mitch Brown has been called up to the side as his replacement.
The Bulldogs have made a raft of changes with five senior players returning. They are Tom Liberator, Jack Macrae, Jake Stringer, Easton Wood and Jordan Roughead.
The Dogs didn’t have any injuries and so have dropped five players to make way for the returnees. Koby Stevens, Bailey Williams, Nathan Hrovat, Will Minson and Fletcher Roberts are the players who will miss.
West Coast Eagles
In: Mitchell Brown
Out: Lewis Jetta (Calf)B: Brad Sheppard, Will Schofield, Thomas Barrass
HB: Shannon Hurn, Jeremy McGovern, Sharrod Wellingham
C: Elliot Yeo, Matt Priddis, Jamie Cripps
HF: Mark LeCras, Jack Darling, Chris Masten
F: Jonathan Giles, Josh J Kennedy, Josh Hill
Fol: Scott Lycett, Andrew Gaff, Luke Shuey
Int: Mitch Brown, Dom Sheed, Sam Butler, Mark Hutchings
Emg: Jack Redden, Liam Duggan, Jackson NelsonWestern Bulldogs
In: Easton Wood, Jake Stringer, Jordan Roughead, Jack Macrae, Tom Liberatore
Out: Koby Stevens (Omitted), Fletcher Roberts (Omitted), Bailey Williams (Omitted), Nathan Hrovat (Omitted), Will Minson (Omitted)B: Shane Biggs, Joel Hamling, Matthew Boyd
HB: Jason Johannisen, Dale Morris, Easton Wood
C: Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli, Liam Picken
HF: Lin Jong, Zaine Cordy, Jake Stringer
F: Tory Dickson, Tom Boyd, Caleb Daniel
Fol: Jordan Roughead, Luke Dahlhaus, Josh Dunkley
Int: Matthew Suckling, Jack Macrae, Clay Smith, Tom Liberatore
Emg: Tom Campbell, Toby McLean, Fletcher Roberts
Key players
For West Coast it’s a bit of an odd one – Jonathan Giles. While he is by no means West Coast’s best player – in fact, he has only played three games for the club after stints with GWS and Essendon – his performance last week as a replacement for Nic Naitanui was inspiring.
The absence of Naitanui was expected to be the defining issue of that match against the Adelaide Crows, the Achilles’ heel of the West Coast team that would see them fall short of victory. Instead, Giles lifted, besting a far more highly rated opponent in Sam Jacobs, and the Eagles won.
The Bulldogs don’t really have a gun ruckman in opposition so it presents a great opportunity for Giles to have another big performance. If he can continue the same vein of form that he did in Round 23, it’ll go a long way to a West Coast win.
For the Bulldogs the key player has to be Marcus Bontempelli. Coming off his first All-Australian selection and likely headed towards his first best-and-fairest win in the off-season, his form in his third year has been outstanding.
I have said since his first year in the league that I reckon he will someday be the best player in the game and I stand by it, but a key part of being one of the very best is that ability to stand up in September.
In last year’s elimination final he had a solid performance but had two missed shots on goal that he would have rued given the close finish to the match. You can be sure that he, like the rest of the Bulldogs team, will be desperate to get the win that eluded them last year.
The home ground advantage
Few teams get as big a boost from playing at home as the West Coast Eagles and Perth is a part of the world where the Bulldogs have really struggled to be competitive in recent years.
The last six matches between these two sides have been won by the team playing in their home state, and the Bulldogs haven’t beaten the Eagles in Perth in six years.
The Bulldogs have also never managed to win a final when playing outside of Victoria. For all the complaints made about the pre-finals bye this week, it will save them from making two trips to Perth in as many weeks.
Simply put – the historical data suggests that this match being played at in the Eagles’ nest puts them in the box seat for a win.
Is this curtains for Matthew Boyd?
Should the Bulldogs lose this one, it will potentially be the last AFL game for one of their most loved sons, Matthew Boyd.
Recently named All-Australian for the third time, the 34-year-old former captain is yet to sign a contract with the club beyond 2016.
There’s been no clear indication yet as to which party is dragging their feet – is Boyd weighing up retirement, or are the Bulldogs considering moving him on?
Uncertain is the best way to describe the situation. And we may be uncertain, when the match ends, as to whether or not Boyd has played his last AFL game.
So who’s going to win?
While the Bulldogs aren’t the kind of team I’m comfortable writing off, you’d have to think that the odds are heavily stacked in favour of the Eagles in this match.
The fact that West Coast has the home ground advantage combined with their hot form as opposed to the Bulldogs’ injury concerns and consecutive trips to Perth makes this an uphill battle for the visitors.
If the Bulldogs can match the Eagles for intensity and starve them of the ball while using it well themselves then they’re in with a shot.
However that seems like it will be too much to ask of the team at this stage and if they lose morale early this one could end in a rout.
Prediction: West Coast Eagles to win by 36 points.
When: 6:10pm local time, 8:10pm AEST
Where: Domain Stadium, Perth
TV: Channel Seven, live, Fox Footy, live
Betting: West Coast Eagles $1.21, Western Bulldogs $4.50
Head-to-head: West Coast Eagles 31, Western Bulldogs 17, Draw 1
In finals: West Coast Eagles 2, Western Bulldogs 1
Last five: West Coast Eagles 2, Western Bulldogs 3